AdamB wrote:but it might be safe to say that when these consequences arrive in the developed world
mousepad wrote:AdamB wrote:but it might be safe to say that when these consequences arrive in the developed world
That's a supply shock due to external factors.
mousepad wrote:When I envision peak oil for the west I always imagine higher and higher costs, yet no disruption in availability. Might I be wrong? Wouldn't be the first time.
Newfie wrote:I kind of think we are seeing it right now throughout the world. There should he no doubt that energy prices are influencing policy. It just reveals itself differently here and there.
We are in an early stage of decline. Think of it like stage 1 cancer.
Doly wrote:Glad to see you admitting that peak oil might actually happen.
Doly wrote:I personally think that peak oil is far more likely to look like WWIII. I don't think all those wars in oil-rich countries happened for reasons entirely unrelated to oil. The last country left with significant oil reserves that doesn't already agree with the US foreign policy on oil, namely, selling as much oil as they possibly can, is Russia. (Iran may be no friend of the US but they're selling as much oil as they can anyway). And Russia has recently started a war, and the sanctions have made clear that there isn't any spare capacity once Russian oil is subtracted. So I reckon that WWIII is likely to start this year.
Plantagenet wrote:Newfie wrote:I kind of think we are seeing it right now throughout the world. There should he no doubt that energy prices are influencing policy. It just reveals itself differently here and there.
We are in an early stage of decline. Think of it like stage 1 cancer.
Exactly right.
When it comes to what peak oil looks like, I think Dr. Colin Campbell had it right. He predicted that peak oil would manifest itself in a series of economic cycles......the economy would go from an oil "glut" with cheap oil to an oil shortage with prices spiking well above $100/bbl.
Doly wrote:I personally think that peak oil is far more likely to look like WWIII... So I reckon that WWIII is likely to start this year.
Plantagenet wrote:Newfie wrote:I kind of think we are seeing it right now throughout the world. There should he no doubt that energy prices are influencing policy. It just reveals itself differently here and there.
We are in an early stage of decline. Think of it like stage 1 cancer.
We had 14 years of pretty good economic times between the 2008-9 GREAT RECESSION and the recession/depression we are about to have. But the cycles don't have to be all the same size or the same duration. This recession could be even worse then 2008-2009, and subsequent cycles might come more rapidly or more slowly. We'll just have to get out our popcorn and watch to see how this peak oil stuff plays out.
CHEERS!
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada wrote:to manufacture jet fuel using just sea water as feedstock.
Plantagenet wrote: you'd see oil prices spike above $100/bbl again, causing recession,
mousepad wrote:Plantagenet wrote: you'd see oil prices spike above $100/bbl again, causing recession,
I don't see why high oil price should cause recession. It's the rapid increase in price that's the problem (and to a certain degree also the rapid fall), not the high oil price in itself. It's the uncertainty and unpredictability that's an issue.
Stable high oil price will simply shift the economy and employment opportunities towards oil related businesses. There's no difference for GDP if pipes are manufactured for oil use or for some other use. There's no difference for GDP whether oil companies buy a new powerful computer or some other business does. There's no difference for GDP if the starbucks job gets eliminated and the oil field job is created instead.
Tanada wrote:Heck the US Navy has now demonstrated the capability to use excess fission power in their new generation aircraft carriers to manufacture jet fuel using just sea water as feedstock. This would allow the Gerald Ford to supply both its own aircraft and its currently fossil fuel burning escort ships with synthetic fuel for all the gas turbine engines. Yes it would be more expensive than 'conventional' fuel, but because of the transport costs of keeping a string of oil tankers circulating between the task force and a friendly port where they can fuel up the actual price differential is a lot smaller than it is for the civilian market and has the added bonus of letting the navy claim to be carbon neutral by processing CO2 rich sea water into Diesel/Jet fuel length synthetic hydrocarbons.
mousepad wrote:Plantagenet wrote: you'd see oil prices spike above $100/bbl again, causing recession,
I don't see why high oil price should cause recession. It's the rapid increase in price that's the problem (and to a certain degree also the rapid fall), not the high oil price in itself. It's the uncertainty and unpredictability that's an issue.
Stable high oil price will simply shift the economy and employment opportunities towards oil related businesses. There's no difference for GDP if pipes are manufactured for oil use or for some other use. There's no difference for GDP whether oil companies buy a new powerful computer or some other business does. There's no difference for GDP if the starbucks job gets eliminated and the oil field job is created instead.
Plantagenet wrote:Second----the reason that high oil prices cause recessions is that high oil prices cause inflation.!
mousepad wrote:Plantagenet wrote:Second----the reason that high oil prices cause recessions is that high oil prices cause inflation.!
Hard to say.
Economic activity is a function of available energy.
AdamB wrote:mousepad wrote:Plantagenet wrote:Second----the reason that high oil prices cause recessions is that high oil prices cause inflation.!
Hard to say.
Economic activity is a function of available energy.
Except for when I trade you $50 for a used air compressor and other than us meeting in a parking lot somewhere nearby to do the exchange, doesn't have much to do with "energy" at all. And this is economic activity.
mousepad wrote:AdamB wrote:mousepad wrote:Plantagenet wrote:Second----the reason that high oil prices cause recessions is that high oil prices cause inflation.!
Hard to say.
Economic activity is a function of available energy.
Except for when I trade you $50 for a used air compressor and other than us meeting in a parking lot somewhere nearby to do the exchange, doesn't have much to do with "energy" at all. And this is economic activity.
That's true. Economic activity was probably the wrong term. Is productivity the right one?
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