Armageddon wrote:“Fight climate change” is another way to tell us we need to start using less oil because we are in decline
AdamB wrote:Armageddon wrote:“Fight climate change” is another way to tell us we need to start using less oil because we are in decline
Pops wrote:Isn't data something like a fact?
you posted forecasts, annual average for 2023 isn't a fact and isn't data.
The pixie dust shale oil won’t save you this time. It’s falling off a cliff
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada wrote:Bickering removed, please stay on topic. With the handful of posters still here and the fact that almost all of them have been here for years there really is no excuse for this childish behavior.
As there are no facts in the future, we cannot declare the estimate itself a fact, but we can say that it is a fact real live experts showed that there is no falling off a cliff going on today, or expected to happen by these experts in the near future.
Doly wrote:As there are no facts in the future, we cannot declare the estimate itself a fact, but we can say that it is a fact real live experts showed that there is no falling off a cliff going on today, or expected to happen by these experts in the near future.
Sure. And that's an argument that has been made in this site lots of times, and with the few posters left here, it's fair to assume we are all aware of it.
Doly wrote:So, if you aren't the sort of person that can evaluate by yourself the relative merits of experts, what do you have? There is always circumstantial evidence. In other words: if the "peak oil is coming soon" experts were right, what sort of things would you expect to see happening that would not happen otherwise? I can list a few:
1. Wars in oil-rich countries that appear to be focused on gaining control of oil.
2. An increase in electric vehicles, vehicles that use non-oil based fuels, and an increase in ethanol in the gasoline mix.
3. Profit-based oil extraction (as opposed to oil extraction by nationalized companies, that isn't driven primarily by profits) going through aggressive boom and bust cycles: when oil gets more expensive, investments increase and projects that are complex from an engineering point of view get going, but as the results of these projects disappoints, they go bust.
4. People claiming that peak oil is in fact going to happen soon. Talking about "peak oil demand" is after all, claiming that peak oil is going to happen soon, just giving an alternative explanation for it.
5. A change in the way central banks and interest rates operate. We know from the 70s oil crisis that oil has a big effect on the economy overall. While you'd have to be an expert on finance to understand the best financial response to an oil crisis, you don't need to be an expert to know that there needs to be one.
Doly wrote:We have seen all of these happening.
Doly wrote:Some of them may have alternative explanations, but the combination of all of them I don't find easy to explain in a world that doesn't find itself rather constrained in terms of available oil.
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