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THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 21 Feb 2021, 23:02:00

Personally until around 1987 I had always lived with wood or fuel oil heating systems. Getting switched over to Natural Gas has saved me more money than you might believe over the last 30+ years because outside of 2004-05 when prices spiked for a bad winter the heating cost with Natural Gas has been substantially less than I was paying for fuel oil in 1985. It was a huge controvery at the time in Toledo because there were two major gas company trunk lines that passed through the city limits, but we were only allowed to tap one of them because the other was dedicated to Detroit. This made Toledo a captive market and we were paying about 20% more for gas than Detroit even though the cheaper line went right through town. Being located at the west end of Lake Erie a lot of utility lines, rail systems and road systems move here from the east and then turn north to service customers in Michigan. This is cheaper and easier that putting the pipelines under the lake bottom to avoid controversy with the local population. Anyhow it finally got bad enough that the city government enticed a new contract for gas from the second pipeline and Voile' all of a sudden prices went from 20% surcharge to pennies of difference between the two suppliers. Since then, which was lets see about 15 years ago, prices have been pretty darn close to the regional average and way cheaper than fuel oil which was common around here before the 1979 crisis and that has slowly changed as whenever someone needs a new furnace most of them have switched. Given that most furnaces last about 20-25 years by this time almost everyone has switched to gas and even those not on the pipeline have often switched to propane which is also cheaper than fuel oil.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 22 Feb 2021, 12:29:23

Pops - I think you understand what you're posting: SPOT prices. For those few that don't understand: spot price is what a buyer pays if that don't have a contract to buy the NG. Of course a contract requires buy a certain amount of NG at some specific projected price. Simple enough: if that buyer won't promise to buy any NG they, in turn, aren't promised a low price and will pay market price.

Which jumps to stories about huge retail electricity rates in Texas. Don't buy the PARTIAL bullshit stories. We have an UNREGULATED system here. IOW you cut what ever deal you want with the provider. The folks getting badly burned AGREED TO PAY WHOLESALE PRICES regardless of how high the get. In return they pay much lower rates NORMALLY. Somewhat lower then what the Rockman's nearly fixed rate contract pays...NORMALLY. So guess whose electricity rates haven't spiked up...the Rockman's. Also what I what see little reporting of? Wholesale rates are getting back to normal levels very quickly. Those huge rates were only for a few days. And guess what: If your power was off: you didn't pay those high rates.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 01 Mar 2021, 11:07:27

"Russia TRIPLES gas supplies to China via Power of Siberia pipeline"
https://www.rt.com/business/516859-russ ... rts-china/

"Russia’s energy major Gazprom said on Monday that it had pumped more gas to China in February via the Power of Siberia pipeline than it had initially planned, more than tripling supplies compared to the same month last year.

“The export of gas to China through the Power of Siberia gas pipeline continues to grow. Supplies regularly exceed our daily contractual obligations. The actual monthly volume of supplies in February is 3.2 times more than in February 2020,” Gazprom said in a statement.

The 3,000km (1,864 mile) cross-border pipeline started official deliveries of Russian natural gas to China in 2019. The so-called eastern route’s capacity is 61 billion cubic meters of gas per year, including 38 billion cubic meters for export. Last year, Gazprom supplied 4.1 billion cubic meters of gas to China via the Power of Siberia. It plans to boost exports by an additional six billion cubic meters.

The agreement on gas supplies via the Power of Siberia pipeline was reached in 2014, with Gazprom and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) inking a 30-year contract. It is Gazprom’s biggest-ever agreement and the first natural gas pipeline between Russia and China.

Russia is set to further increase supplies of piped gas to China, including via the Power of Siberia 2 project. This second pipeline entered the design stage last year, and will be capable of delivering as much as 50 billion cubic meters of gas once it’s finished. Gazprom intends to become China’s biggest natural gas supplier, accounting for more than 25 percent of Chinese imports by 2035."

Russia continues to diversify its gas exports away from the EU, which gives Russia a lot more negotiating power. Russian LNG exports also continue to grow and diversify increasing Russia's independence from the European market. This increases the opportunities for the USA to export more LNG to the EU, which the EU can buy at much higher prices to continue supporting the American Empire at its own expense. Always look on the bright side of life!
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby diemos » Mon 01 Mar 2021, 16:47:00

ROCKMAN wrote:IOW you cut what ever deal you want with the provider. The folks getting badly burned AGREED TO PAY WHOLESALE PRICES regardless of how high the get.


People demand freedom, then when freedom blows up in their face because they made bad decisions or decisions they didn't actually understand, they demand to be bailed out.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 24 Mar 2021, 16:11:40

"Russia says LNG production capacity could jump THREEFOLD by 2035"
https://www.rt.com/business/518984-russ ... ty-growth/

"Russia’s government approved on Monday the country’s long-term development program for liquefied natural gas (LNG), expecting production capacity to rise threefold from current levels to 140 million tons per year by 2035."

They expect that to be a 20% market share of the global LNG market by then. They expect their production costs to be amongst the lowest in the world, almost on a par with Quatar, just over $4 per MBTU. More info at the link.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Fri 26 Mar 2021, 14:27:40

JuanP wrote:"Russia says LNG production capacity could jump THREEFOLD by 2035"
https://www.rt.com/business/518984-russ ... ty-growth/

"Russia’s government approved on Monday the country’s long-term development program for liquefied natural gas (LNG), expecting production capacity to rise threefold from current levels to 140 million tons per year by 2035."

They expect that to be a 20% market share of the global LNG market by then. They expect their production costs to be amongst the lowest in the world, almost on a par with Quatar, just over $4 per MBTU. More info at the link.


Russia should stop supplying gas via pipelines. The customers of this cheap gas get it in their heads that they can dictate the price and engage in other blackmail. LNG is ideal. Any spot pricing fixing effort can be neutralized by keeping the tankers in port. And the tankers can always chase the markets with the highest prices. For example, natural gas prices hit $1100 per thousand cubic meters (uncompressed) in east Asia this winter but Russia is selling its gas for under long term contracts to the EU for $170 per tcm. This is absurd. Russia has to stop being a charity provider for its enemies.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 26 Mar 2021, 16:43:12

dissident wrote: For example, natural gas prices hit $1100 per thousand cubic meters (uncompressed) in east Asia this winter but Russia is selling its gas for under long term contracts to the EU for $170 per tcm. This is absurd. Russia has to stop being a charity provider for its enemies.


Russia is a one trick economy. It sells natural resources. Sure, they could be more $/unit efficient selling only into the spot LNG market during the winter. And sell far fewer volumes, for a smaller cumulative amount, than selling more volumes, longer, at a lower price, encouraging the demand to just keep demanding.

The USSR went belly up because they flew this idea right into the ground with oil and the low prices after the 1979 global peak oil. The Russians grow some damn smart folks (I've worked with more than a few), but collectively they tend to be stump stupid when it comes to the way their government handles their natural resource sales.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby JuanP » Fri 26 Mar 2021, 19:03:36

AdamB wrote:
dissident wrote: For example, natural gas prices hit $1100 per thousand cubic meters (uncompressed) in east Asia this winter but Russia is selling its gas for under long term contracts to the EU for $170 per tcm. This is absurd. Russia has to stop being a charity provider for its enemies.


Russia is a one trick economy. It sells natural resources. Sure, they could be more $/unit efficient selling only into the spot LNG market during the winter. And sell far fewer volumes, for a smaller cumulative amount, than selling more volumes, longer, at a lower price, encouraging the demand to just keep demanding.

The USSR went belly up because they flew this idea right into the ground with oil and the low prices after the 1979 global peak oil. The Russians grow some damn smart folks (I've worked with more than a few), but collectively they tend to be stump stupid when it comes to the way their government handles their natural resource sales.


One can only imagine how incredibly stupid the Americans must be then, since they can't even send their own astronauts to the International Space Station without hitching a ride with the Russians. Also, just how smart are Americans that can't even build a proper missile defense system to defend the USA? Please enlighten me! By the way, you seem to be about as intelligent as the average American. And, no, that is not a compliment! Your calling Russians stump stupid appears to me to be nothing more than a projection on your part!

Do you have anything smart to say or are you here just to insult people who didn't do anything to you? Now that I insulted you, please tell me, does it feel nice to be insulted? You shouldn't do to others what you don't like them doing to you! Please try to pretend to be a decent human being, even if you are not!
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 26 Mar 2021, 20:48:22

JuanP wrote:One can only imagine how incredibly stupid the Americans must be then, since they can't even send their own astronauts to the International Space Station without hitching a ride with the Russians.


Nothing wrong with paying to play. And I think Elon has the "Americans ain't stupid" angle covered pretty well, compared to both governments' space programs.

JuanP wrote: Your calling Russians stump stupid appears to me to be nothing more than a projection on your part!


I'm more than happy to listen to alternative theories on how Russia funds its government, other than through selling natural resources. And whether or not this is evidence of stupid, or just circumstance, them having plenty to sell. Automotive manufacturing perhaps? Food exports? Certainly military sales is in there.

JuanP wrote:Do you have anything smart to say or are you here just to insult people who didn't do anything to you?


We could talk about peak oil? And I grew up in a world where I have every right, and still do, to insult the Russians. And ChiComs as well. :)

JuanP wrote:Now that I insulted you, please tell me, does it feel nice to be insulted?


Obviously your experience in adversarial environments is meager at best, to think that what you have done is anything resembling an insult. The location where you wrote this alone precludes it from being personal.

JuanP wrote:You shouldn't do to others what you don't like them doing to you! Please try to pretend to be a decent human being, even if you are not!


By all means, feel free to object to what I write if you'd like. And no, I signed no agreement upon entering this place to be any particular kind of human being, decent or otherwise.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 26 Mar 2021, 21:10:29

JuanP wrote:One can only imagine how incredibly stupid the Americans must be then, since they can't even send their own astronauts to the International Space Station without hitching a ride with the Russians. Also, just how smart are Americans that can't even build a proper missile defense system to defend the USA? Please enlighten me!


While I was quite distressed that my government grounded the STS before an alternative means of preforming manned mission was available at long last those means are now in use. As of November 2020 Dragon launched by SpaceX is doing the crew exchange missions for the USA launched teams.
11-2020 crew launch

November 13, 2020, 11:02am
The first crew rotation at International Space Station to employ a SpaceX Dragon Crew Capsule launches November 14 at 7:49pm ET from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The four will join the Expedition 64 crew already aboard ISS, forming Expedition 64/65.

The new crew module built by SpaceX, carries four astronauts in comfort unlike the cramped condition aboard the Russian Soyuz capsule which all astronauts used to reach space station since the US Space Shuttle program shut down in 2011. Crew Dragon restores American capability to loft astronauts into orbit without reliance on Russian launch systems. They will dock at ISS at 4:20am on Sunday.

The Dragon Crew capsule had its final test drive, over the summer when NASA astronauts Bob Behnke and Doug Hurley rode up to Space Station as the last test crew for the new capsule.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby JuanP » Fri 26 Mar 2021, 21:29:56

Tanada wrote:
JuanP wrote:One can only imagine how incredibly stupid the Americans must be then, since they can't even send their own astronauts to the International Space Station without hitching a ride with the Russians. Also, just how smart are Americans that can't even build a proper missile defense system to defend the USA? Please enlighten me!


While I was quite distressed that my government grounded the STS before an alternative means of preforming manned mission was available at long last those means are now in use. As of November 2020 Dragon launched by SpaceX is doing the crew exchange missions for the USA launched teams.
11-2020 crew launch

November 13, 2020, 11:02am
The first crew rotation at International Space Station to employ a SpaceX Dragon Crew Capsule launches November 14 at 7:49pm ET from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The four will join the Expedition 64 crew already aboard ISS, forming Expedition 64/65.

The new crew module built by SpaceX, carries four astronauts in comfort unlike the cramped condition aboard the Russian Soyuz capsule which all astronauts used to reach space station since the US Space Shuttle program shut down in 2011. Crew Dragon restores American capability to loft astronauts into orbit without reliance on Russian launch systems. They will dock at ISS at 4:20am on Sunday.

The Dragon Crew capsule had its final test drive, over the summer when NASA astronauts Bob Behnke and Doug Hurley rode up to Space Station as the last test crew for the new capsule.


I stand partially corrected. The USA is capable of flying some of its astronauts to the ISS using American spaceships since last May, but not all of them. I was basing my comment on my memory of this:
"American astronauts to again use Russian Soyuz rocket to reach ISS as NASA ..."
https://www.rt.com/russia/517842-usa-use-soyuz-sputnik/

But then I found this:
"Roscosmos names Russian cosmonaut expected to fly to ISS aboard SpaceX ..."
https://www.rt.com/russia/518074-korsak ... acex-nasa/

Apparently, Americans are smart enough to fly some of their astronauts to the ISS using American spaceships since last year, but not all.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 26 Mar 2021, 21:43:05

JuanP wrote:Apparently, Americans are smart enough to fly some of their astronauts to the ISS using American spaceships since last year, but not all.


Some Americans. I wouldn't lump them all together, any more than we should peak oilers or Russians. As I said, the Russians I've worked with are smart cookies. Maybe their political class is just more craven and inflicted with scumbaggery even worse than the American one is all?
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Sat 27 Mar 2021, 01:34:14

Can't argue with my points, resort to primary school level ad hominem attacks.

Americans sure love to bark a lot. But like all the other exceptionalists over the last 1000 years are ultimately full of sh*t and good for nothing when it comes the time to deliver on their grand ambitions.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 29 Mar 2021, 13:43:31

diemos - Sorry: missed your reply way back when -

{ROCKMAN wrote: "IOW you cut what ever deal you want with the provider. The folks getting badly burned AGREED TO PAY WHOLESALE PRICES regardless of how high the get."

People demand freedom, then when freedom blows up in their face because they made bad decisions or decisions they didn't actually understand, they demand to be bailed out.}

Here's the tricky part of the reality: if someone took the risk years ago for the lower cost (but potentially risky) retail NG contracts they would have saved money IN THE LONG RUN. IOW even paying the big price jump during THE FREEZE they would have come out ahead. Of course most forget how much they had saved. The big losers would have been those that had just signed those discount contracts in the last few years. They might recover those big bills if they stay with the discount plans but most feel too burned. OTH there is talk of the state trying to cover those big bills. Or not allow the providers to collect. But then many of those provider have filled bankruptcy so a judge may set different rules. As I've mentioned before many of those judges consider themselves semi-gods who might just take on the state.

Of course all this (and other details) haven't been fed to the public: just doesn't fit the limited print space or 5 minutes of airtime allowed by THE MEDIA. Only place to get a more complete picture is at boring websites like peak oil. LOL.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby JuanP » Sun 04 Apr 2021, 11:56:57

"Russian gas exports to Europe surge 30% in 2021 as harsh winter forces foreign consumers to boost energy purchases"
https://www.rt.com/business/520082-gazp ... se-europe/

"Russian state-run energy giant Gazprom increased shipments of natural gas to Europe by 30.7% in the first quarter of the current year, preliminary data shows.
The impressive year-on-year surge, to nearly 53 billion cubic meters, is reportedly due to the cold (in European terms) winter season. In March, the shipments totaled 18.2 billion cubic meters, reaching an all-time high, the company said."

So, the Europeans are buying more Russian natural gas than ever before. Those sales can be expected to continue increasing in the future, particularly if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is completed this year, as predicted; it is already more than 95% built.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 06 Apr 2021, 14:13:46

JuanP wrote:"Russian gas exports to Europe surge 30% in 2021 as harsh winter forces foreign consumers to boost energy purchases"
https://www.rt.com/business/520082-gazp ... se-europe/

"Russian state-run energy giant Gazprom increased shipments of natural gas to Europe by 30.7% in the first quarter of the current year, preliminary data shows.
The impressive year-on-year surge, to nearly 53 billion cubic meters, is reportedly due to the cold (in European terms) winter season. In March, the shipments totaled 18.2 billion cubic meters, reaching an all-time high, the company said."

So, the Europeans are buying more Russian natural gas than ever before. Those sales can be expected to continue increasing in the future, particularly if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is completed this year, as predicted; it is already more than 95% built.


It is all a money game. When a gove4rnment or company builds a pipeline they have long term contracts with the producer for a minimum quantity of flow to cover their investment costs. However every pipeline I ever heard of has a much higher capacity than the minimum contract requirement. If the producer only has one customer or set of customers then they will sell as much as those customers want up to the capacity of the system. However every producer has a fairly hard production limit and when they have multiple customers in diverse place they get bids for using that extra capacity. China is getting more and more links to the Russian pipeline systems which means Russia is getting greater and greater opportunity to sell their gas to the highest bidder rather than the captive European market they used to have. Finishing the new pipeline is fine, but if China outbids Europe then the pipeline is only going to carry minimum contracted flow.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby JuanP » Fri 09 Apr 2021, 17:15:25

Time is running out for the USA to prevent the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. At the rate Russia is building it now it will take less than 50 days to finish it completely.

I believe the Biden administration is pushing Ukraine to attack the Donbass and/or Crimea to provoke a defensive move on the part of Russia, which will be sold to the Western masses by the Western MSM as a "Russian attack" on Ukraine. That would justify further sanctions against Russia, including the cancellation of Nord Stream 2. I believe this is the last card the USA can play against Russia. The Russians know this is coming and are ready for it.

If Ukraine attacks first, and the Russians decide to get directly involved, they will decimate the Ukrainians in a matter of hours, two days at the most. This is not about who wins the war; this is about the USA sacrificing Ukraine to split the EU from Russia, sanction Russia, and stop the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

The Ukrainians think they can force the Russians to continue selling their natural gas exports to Europe through Ukraine if they can stop NS2, so I expect them to do as told. Russia will do what is best for Russia. I hope the Russsians end up selling all their gas to Asia through pipelines and to the rest of the world as LNG. The big losers here will be Ukraine, Germany, and the EU.

I think it is very likely there will be a war in Ukraine before the end of May. The USA and NATO are very willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian! :lol:

"Ukraine's NATO fantasy is a suicide pill in disguise, military action by the alliance against pro Russian forces would be crushed"
https://www.rt.com/russia/520366-nato-z ... e-suicide/

"Ukraine redux: War, Russophobia, and Pipelineistan."
https://asiatimes.com/2021/04/ukraine-r ... lineistan/
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Sat 10 Apr 2021, 15:39:25

EU-rope needs to grow a brain and rather quick. Russia currently has 63.4 billion cubic meters per year of LNG export capacity which will increase to over 190 bcm per year by 2035. At the same time Russia has already built a 62 bcm/year pipeline to China and is building another to be completed in a couple of years. So Russia will be able to shift all of its EU exports to the east. In addition, it will get more money for this gas than from EU ingrates and haters.

The attempt by Washington to force Russia to ship over 50 bcm/year through Banderastan is pathetic. The only reason the EU is getting enough Russian gas now is because Russia is being reasonable. It is time to stop being reasonable with haters and enemies. Let the EU and its American masters deal with the 150 bcm/year gas supply gap. It will be fun to watch as every last bit of LNG from Qatar is routed to the EU and the EU buys Russian LNG. Beggars, especially hate-filled, resentful and violent ones can't be choosers.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby JuanP » Tue 13 Apr 2021, 11:30:01

"Western insistence on Russia paying Ukraine rent to use old Soviet-era gas pipelines drives Moscow away from EU & towards China"
read://https_www.rt.com/?url=https%3A%2 ... e-china%2F

"Russia is rapidly becoming less reliant on the rest of Europe, which has profound implications. Cancelling Nord Stream 2 will not make Russia reliant on using Ukraine as a transit state, rather it will make Russia diversify further away from Europe as a consumer. Germany also recognises that maintaining Nord Stream 2 is imperative to maintain a bridge to Russia and prevent the largest, and most powerful, European state aligning itself even closer with China.

The US now sanctions Germany and other European countries for cooperating with the construction of Nord Stream 2, with the reasoning that Washington is protecting Germany and Europe from reliance on Russia.

However, even the circus around the Western-backed opposition figure Alexey Navalny did not culminate in the cancellation of Nord Stream 2, although the continued mid-construction obstruction of the pipeline has already made Moscow view the EU Europeans as unreliable partners, and Moscow is unlikely to agree to another pipeline project to an EU state."

An interesting point, and one I agree with. Whether the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is completed or not, Russia is extremely unlikely to build new pipelines to Europe in the future.

And, once the current transit contract with Ukraine expires in 2024, Russia will renegotiate on its terms or stop using Ukraine as a transit nation for its natural gas. Russia can now send its gas East, West, North, and South, all over the world, both through pipelines and shipped as LNG. In a couple of years Russia won't need Europe for anything at all.
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