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The second coming of $100/bbl oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 14 Mar 2021, 00:30:46

Oil prices and oil stocks just had their best quarter in years!

Oil is now up to $65/bbl, more then doubling off the lows. Some oil company stocks have more then doubled over the last few months. For instance, I've got some Schumberger and its more than doubled in the last few months.

crude-to-100-trader-makes-the-case-for-a-spike-in-oil-prices

We last saw $100 bbl/oil in 2014, and now some oil traders are predicting we'll see the second coming of $100/bbl oil in 6 to 12 months.

That seems reasonable to me......Oil will only need a 50% move up from here to hit $100/bbl

And the stars are aligning to take oil to $100/bbl.

Biden is exploding the deficit and the Fed is printing money like crazy----both will tend to devalue the dollar and drive the price of everything (including oil) higher.

Biden has signaled he is going to ban fracking and limit or even ban oil leasing and drilling on federal lands-------both will hurt US oil production and tend to drive the price of oil higher

Biden is going to send a giant infrastructure bill to Congress, but rumor has it the infrastruction bill will actually the green new deal. No doubt the Ds will lard it up with measures to increase the price of oil in order to make renewables more attractive.

AND

The Saudis just announced they are reigning in their own oil production-----this will tend to drive the price of oil higher.

AND

Oil exploration and development around the world has lagged for years due to low oil prices. This sets the stage for oil prices to go much higher in the year ahead.

Image
$100/bbl oil here we come! Again!

Cheers!
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 14 Mar 2021, 12:31:17

Plantagenet wrote:Oil prices and oil stocks just had their best quarter in years!

Oil is now up to $65/bbl, more then doubling off the lows. Some oil company stocks have more then doubled over the last few months. For instance, I've got some Schumberger and its more than doubled in the last few months.

crude-to-100-trader-makes-the-case-for-a-spike-in-oil-prices

We last saw $100 bbl/oil in 2014, and now some oil traders are predicting we'll see the second coming of $100/bbl oil in 6 to 12 months.

That seems reasonable to me......Oil will only need a 50% move up from here to hit $100/bbl

And the stars are aligning to take oil to $100/bbl.

Biden is exploding the deficit and the Fed is printing money like crazy----both will tend to devalue the dollar and drive the price of everything (including oil) higher.

Biden has signaled he is going to ban fracking and limit or even ban oil leasing and drilling on federal lands-------both will hurt US oil production and tend to drive the price of oil higher

Biden is going to send a giant infrastructure bill to Congress, but rumor has it the infrastruction bill will actually the green new deal. No doubt the Ds will lard it up with measures to increase the price of oil in order to make renewables more attractive.

AND

The Saudis just announced they are reigning in their own oil production-----this will tend to drive the price of oil higher.

AND

Oil exploration and development around the world has lagged for years due to low oil prices. This sets the stage for oil prices to go much higher in the year ahead.

Image
$100/bbl oil here we come! Again!

Cheers!

Despite your usual crying about dems, inflation remains very muted and the dollar has been stronger recently (I think because FINALLY there is a clear sign the US is going to have a SANE policy re Covid-19 vaccinations and actually DEALING with it re the science, thanks to Biden).

CONGRESS is exploding the deficit, as both sides have tended to do for decades and decades now. They tend to have different choices in spending priorities, but they all spend too much, overall. Clinton, a D, was the last POTUS to keep US budget deficits to a reasonable level, as you well know, BTW.

If we had high inflation every time the usual suspects whined about it for the past 35+ years, Shadowstats might not be completely delusional, re its claims. :roll: But in reality, US dollar inflation has been fairly quiet and trending down overall since the 1990-91 Iraq war.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... lation-cpi

If the dollar were really falling as much as the usual suspects had claimed for the past 30+ years, it wouldn't be fairly close to flat over that time (it's been volatile but has NOT depreciated, net, to ANY meaningful degree for three decades plus now).

To the extent oil exploration has decreased and won't really snap back until the price is high enough to awaken the animal spirits re profit incentive of the big players, I'll agree that crude oil could well head back to $100ish or so a BBL, or even higher. But that's the usual geopolitical and economic forces globally in the main, same as it ever was. We've had PLENTY of oil price spikes under both GOP and dem administrations since the 70's.

And one way the BIden administration will be helping, is encouraging faster uptake of BEV's. Not that I'd expect you to be honest enough to give a balanced viewpoint, since for you, playing political games is job one.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 14 Mar 2021, 17:21:01

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Despite your usual crying about dems, inflation remains very muted


Despite your usual crying about everything, the Ds just passed a HUGE pork bill which vastly inflates the US budget deficit. I hate to break it to you, but when a government prints and spends money like crazy it often leads to inflation.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:CONGRESS is exploding the deficit, as both sides have tended to do for decades and decades now. They tend to have different choices in spending priorities, but they all spend too much, overall. Clinton, a D, was the last POTUS to keep US budget deficits to a reasonable level, as you well know, BTW.


As usual your posts don't make any sense. First you say it is "CONGRESS" is responsible for the budget and budget deficits and then you immediately flip-flop and want to give credit to President Clinton for having a reasonable budget deficit. But using your own logic, it was "CONGRESS"---not Clinton----who passed the last budgets to have a reasonable budget deficit. AND, if you look at the historical facts its pretty clear that Clinton demanded MORE spending each year of his presidency, and it was the R Congress who cut and reduced Clinton's pork-filled budget proposals to get down to have a reasonable budget deficit.

So you're half-right on that one.....it is indeed CONGRESS who passes the budget and is responsible for budget deficits, even when Ds like Clinton or Biden are President. And lookie-lookie--- right now we have a D party in TOTAL CONTROL of both the house and the Senate and the Presidency, so the current record deficits are 100% the responsibility of the D party.

Outcast_Searcher wrote: I'll agree that crude oil could well head back to $100ish or so a BBL, or even higher. But that's the usual geopolitical and economic forces globally in the main, same as it ever was. We've had PLENTY of oil price spikes under both GOP and dem administrations since the 70's.


Of course. But oil has only hit $100/bbl once before----in 2008. And when oil hit $100 bbl last time it helped contribute to a massive global recession.

I'm predicting we're going to see a second coming of $100/bbl oil in the next 6-12 months, and that having expensive oil again is going to really hammer the US economy and the global economy again.

Image
Hold on to your wallets....here comes $100/bbl oil again!

Cheers!
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby aadbrd » Mon 15 Mar 2021, 13:17:23

I welcome the return of $100 oil as it would be the best possible headwind to spur on electrification of transport.
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 16 Mar 2021, 21:57:27

Exactly right. In fact if the Biden administration and the Ds in Congress had any sense they would enact a carbon tax to raise the price of oil and make EVs more attractive.

But they don’t.

And thats why it will be so interesting to see what happens when oil goes to $100/bbl and people start to complain about the high price of gas. Will Biden call a press conference and explain to people that its a good to have high oil prices to make EVs more attractive——or will Biden and the Ds do what Ds do and pass still more stimulus bills to give people free money to pay for the expensive gas?

I’m very curious to see how this plays out.

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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby mousepad » Wed 17 Mar 2021, 07:23:20

aadbrd wrote:I welcome the return of $100 oil as it would be the best possible headwind to spur on electrification of transport.


That reminds me of 2008/9. I wrote a letter to the governor asking to embrace the opportunity and add a hefty gas tax to maintain high prices at the pump even with falling oil prices. I thought that's a no-brainer in a hopelessly blue state. But funny thing is the opposite happened. The state discussed a REDUCTION of gas taxes as to maintain LOW prices at the pump.

Me, as a hopeless conservative, proposing a hefty gas tax, while the environmental concerned blue government doing the opposite? Can you imagine?

That reminds me of another funny story when my hopelessly blue leaders of my hopelessly blue state started to complain about declining population in the state. I again wrote a letter to the governor asking to embrace and cleverly manage the decline, reduce infrastructure, consolidate towns, returning land to nature etc etc. This would be a good opportunity to reduce co2 and to help the environment. Again quite the opposite happened. The blue government of my hopelessly blue state started a program to PAY people to MOVE here. Can you imagine?
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby aadbrd » Wed 17 Mar 2021, 10:12:51

Only a minority of the left are keyed into the issue of population, but it's probably the only segment of the public that is keyed into it.
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 17 Mar 2021, 12:35:02

mousepad wrote:The blue government of my hopelessly blue state started a program to PAY people to MOVE here. Can you imagine?


How much? In this world of teleworkers becoming more common, a cheap place to live where they pay you to come in looks pretty interesting compared to the high priced economic powerhouse type states.
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 17 Mar 2021, 20:42:14

mousepad wrote:
aadbrd wrote:I welcome the return of $100 oil as it would be the best possible headwind to spur on electrification of transport.


That reminds me of 2008/9. I wrote a letter to the governor asking to embrace the opportunity and add a hefty gas tax to maintain high prices at the pump even with falling oil prices. I thought that's a no-brainer in a hopelessly blue state. But funny thing is the opposite happened. The state discussed a REDUCTION of gas taxes as to maintain LOW prices at the pump.

Me, as a hopeless conservative, proposing a hefty gas tax, while the environmental concerned blue government doing the opposite? Can you imagine?

Right there with you on both the gas tax rise idea, and the fact that post 2008 would have been a great time to do it. (I was also in favor after the 1980 big price blip -- the third in just a decade). My letters did zero good on that front as well.

This reminds me of when my dad tried to get the KY governor to tax the hell out of cigarettes via a letter, when I was a teenager -- based on the health damage (and expenses related to that) they caused. Naturally the response was that tobacco was "too important to KY's economy" -- translated, the tobacco lobby was too important to being re-elected.

Despite how much things change, re basic political motivations and maneuvers, they actually change very little.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 17 Mar 2021, 20:57:45

AdamB wrote:
mousepad wrote:The blue government of my hopelessly blue state started a program to PAY people to MOVE here. Can you imagine?


How much? In this world of teleworkers becoming more common, a cheap place to live where they pay you to come in looks pretty interesting compared to the high priced economic powerhouse type states.

I have seen various articles in recent years where various towns losing population are paying people significant money to move there, re housing discounts. Stay there for 5 years, and keep the discount, for example.

This reminds me of my home state of KY, which is VERY dark red. For retirees (whether over 65 or not) there is a significant exemption for state taxes on pension income (1099-R income). As a retiree, I don't get it. We tend to have much higher medical costs. We generally don't work as hard or as much as young and middle age folks, either because we can't, or we don't have to due to income, or, for traditional paid wages, we don't WANT to anymore, after 5 or so decades of doing that for school and then work. So what's the big appeal? To support the medical industry? Because on average, it helps the tax base DESPITE all the additional medical burden?

I can see how such a place might be VERY interesting to citizens, re paying people to move there. However, given the cost, why should governments take benefits, funding, infrastructure spending, etc. away from group X to pay group Y to move there?

Remember -- when they do that with BUSINESSES re huge tax breaks, it makes lots of dems very angry, and far lefters like AOC can get the most vocally angry of all (re what happened to the Amazon move to NYC, and all the income AOC cost NYC re her histrionics about that move).

It seems to me there is a WILD inconsistency re such policies overall.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 22 Mar 2021, 12:18:02

I find it amusing that the IEA is saying that global gasoline demand for road transport has peaked.....

iea-says-oil-supercycle-unlikely-but-gasoline-demand-may-have-peaked

At the exact same time that gasoline prices for diesel and other kinds of gasoline are rapidly going higher because demand is increasing rapidly as the covid shutdowns end.

It looks to me like the IEA has called it wrong again........as usual.......they are totally wrong.

You can go to any gas station and see gas prices are up because demand is up.

AND thats why we're on our way to $100/bbl oil.......the IEA is wrong and oil demand is currently going UP!

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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 24 Mar 2021, 09:30:37

Plantagenet wrote:I find it amusing that the IEA is saying that global gasoline demand for road transport has peaked.....

iea-says-oil-supercycle-unlikely-but-gasoline-demand-may-have-peaked

At the exact same time that gasoline prices for diesel and other kinds of gasoline are rapidly going higher because demand is increasing rapidly as the covid shutdowns end.

It looks to me like the IEA has called it wrong again........as usual.......they are totally wrong.

You can go to any gas station and see gas prices are up because demand is up.

AND thats why we're on our way to $100/bbl oil.......the IEA is wrong and oil demand is currently going UP!

Cheers!

Actually, oil prices have been trending DOWN for a couple weeks now.

If you're going to make claims re experts being wrong, at least check your facts well enough that a child can't easily see that you didn't bother to check your facts.

So now the question is if the trend has changed for the longer term. Something no one can accurately say, apriori.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-cr ... aily-chart
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby OutcastPhilosopher » Wed 24 Mar 2021, 10:40:45

The Oil price is going to collapse....down
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 24 Mar 2021, 11:12:48

OutcastPhilosopher wrote:The Oil price is going to collapse....down


Generally, a collapse implies a decrease of some sort, sure. Of course, seeing as how it has recently recovered from $0, anyone who has watched the markets understands that yes, it does go down, just as it does go up.

Your point is...what? More wet dreams of collapse from mommy's basement?
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 25 Mar 2021, 01:03:34

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:It looks to me like the IEA has called it wrong again........as usual.......they are totally wrong. You can go to any gas station and see gas prices are up because demand is up........the IEA is wrong and oil demand is currently going UP!

Cheers!

Actually, oil prices have been trending DOWN for a couple weeks now. If you're going to make claims re experts being wrong, at least check your facts well enough that a child can't easily see that you didn't bother to check your facts.


Why so aggro? And why no links to back up your claim? And why are you wrong again?

Perhaps this latest post shows what your problem is.......If you are relying on a child to check things for you, and it is no surprise if your posts are sometimes childishly wrong.

For instance, in this case I said gasoline prices are going up and you have elected to dispute that.

Well....lets see what the facts are.....and rather then using your proverbial child to check things lets look at the data for ourselves, shall we?

And what do we find?

Gasoline prices are surging higher, just as I said. In fact, the upward surge in gas prices occurring in the US right now is unusually rapid. For instance, consider this recent news report from Fox business:

unusual-leap-gas-prices-going-higher

or how about this news story, taken right from today's Wall Street Journal

unusual-leap-in-gas-prices-puts-3-a-gallon-in-sight-

Or how about CNBC? I find their business and financial reporting to be very good. What does CNBC report on this topic?

heres-whats-fueling-rising-gas-prices

So looks like I'm right again, and your reliance on a child to check out facts for you has led you to make another completely inaccurate post.

US Gasoline prices are indeed going up....JUST AS I SAID.

AND...Since my links to multiple news reports on US gas prices clearly show that I'm completely right and you're completely wrong, I think I'll take another victory dance on this one:

Image
I'm RIGHT! You and the child who does fact-checking for you are wrong! I'm RIGHT! I'm like so right AGAIN! OOOh! AAAhhhhh! Feels so GOOD! I"M RIGHT AGAIN!!!! AND AGAIN!!! AND AGAIN!!!

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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 25 Mar 2021, 10:44:53

Don't be so hard on Outcast Searcher, Plantagent! He worked with computers all his life, and in the USA, where people specialize so much on theirs careers, most people are extremely ignorant of things that are not directly connected to their jobs. In my experience, even smart people with advanced degrees can be extremely ignorant of the most basic facts of life. I see this all the time.

Maybe Outcast Searcher doesn't understand the difference between oil prices and gas prices. Or, maybe, he didn't properly comprehend your post. He could also have been multitasking when he did it. I've met an awful lot of people who think that they can multitask and do two things well at the same time, when they actually can't. Also, for most people, it is much easier to find fault in others than it is to see their own defects. Outcast Searcher is constantly criticizing everyone here, even for minor things, like making a typo, but he seems completely incapable of perceiving his own limitations. I accept him for what he is; I even removed him from my foes' list.
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Re: The second coming of $100/bbl oil

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 25 Mar 2021, 11:46:37

JuanP wrote:Don't be so hard on Outcast Searcher, Plantagent! He worked with computers all his life, and in the USA, where people specialize so much on theirs careers, most people are extremely ignorant of things that are not directly connected to their jobs. In my experience, even smart people with advanced degrees can be extremely ignorant of the most basic facts of life. I see this all the time.

Maybe Outcast Searcher doesn't understand the difference between oil prices and gas prices. Or, maybe, he didn't properly comprehend your post. He could also have been multitasking when he did it. I've met an awful lot of people who think that they can multitask and do two things well at the same time, when they actually can't. Also, for most people, it is much easier to find fault in others than it is to see their own defects. Outcast Searcher is constantly criticizing everyone here, even for minor things, like making a typo, but he seems completely incapable of perceiving his own limitations. I accept him for what he is; I even removed him from my foes' list.


I'm not being hard on him, Juan.

He's the one who made a nasty attack on my simple statement of fact that US gas prices are currently going up.

I find it worrisome when some people are ignorant of the facts or just the ignore the facts in order to post utter balderdash.

But facts are stubborn things, as the saying goes.

I just wish all the posters here were as honest and careful about making factual posts and providing links to document our viewpoints as you and I are, Juan.

Have a great day!

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