rockdoc123 wrote:If we were to assume ultimate recovery factor of 6% (well below the lowest estimate of Dechongkit and Prasad, 2011) that still leaves over 20 billion bbls of oil to be produced. That number is interestingly at the low end of the estimate of ultimately recoverable reserves from the Bakken made by Continental Resources of between 20 and 40 billion bbls.
This suggests that by all accounts the Bakken is nowhere near dead.
dissident wrote:ROCKMAN wrote:A "red flag" warning in the Bakken? No, it isn't: it's a condition fully anticipated by anyone knowledgable of oil production operations. This same phenomenon has happened in every newly developed trend of water drive oil reservoirs. Early on most of the wells produce no or very little water. But as a trend continues to be developed wells drilled early on begin producing more water as they deplete. But new wells are producing more oil. But eventually the NUMBER of the older wells (with ever increasing water production) begin exceeding the number of new wells brought on line. And simple arithmetic explains why the total water production in the trend starts exceeding the total oil production. It is inevitable and always has been. And this differential can show a very big jump should the number of new wells deceases significantly. As might happen if oil prices fall and activity decreases.
You are omitting the show stopper detail about the time of arrival of higher water cuts. The Bakken is evolving on a timescale noticeably shorter than conventional plays of substance. So at the end of the day, it ends up being a side show with lots of hype that made sound like some 2nd coming of the oil production of the 1960s. The estimates for the peaking of the Bakken in the next 10 years are looking more and more realistic. And the cherry on top will be the faster decline post-peak.
asg70 wrote:^^^ More content-free drivel.
the Bakken is nowhere near dead.
Since the best and most productive acreage mostly gets drilled first, it becomes harder and harder to grow production as time goes by and the best acreage is used up. One of the clearest signs that new wells aren't as productive as wells were in the past is the increasing amount of water (i.e. the water cut) in wells now versus wells drilled in the past.
Increasing percentages of water and less oil in productions wells has always been a bad thing in the oil biz. Don't let anyone tell you different.
The situation has changed drastically -- mainly because of new technologies and the free market. President Donald Trump has just announced the official end of the oil crisis. He also hinted at the end of the miles-per-gallon [MPG] restrictions on cars and trucks.
Electricity truly is the lifeblood of modern civilization.
Cog wrote:Where does the Constitution specify the role of government is to set mpg standards? I'll wait while you look it up. The market will set the price point at which consumers will either buy or find an alternative.
Simply producing more than you consume might qualify as self-sufficiency, but not true independence.
jedrider wrote:Cog wrote:Where does the Constitution specify the role of government is to set mpg standards? I'll wait while you look it up. The market will set the price point at which consumers will either buy or find an alternative.
That worked out very well for Texas, didn't it Cog?
Regulating commerce is sufficient. Making sure we don't chock each other to death from exhaust flumes is sufficient as well. This is not 1776 and they knew that time would march on and there would be different requirements. Too late to try that originality argument. That was a long time ago.
Newfie wrote:
You are arguing a nearly 2 year old post with someone who is not currently posting.
Ibon wrote:Newfie wrote:
You are arguing a nearly 2 year old post with someone who is not currently posting.
Let's hope we don't do the same with Trump 10 years from now!
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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