Daniel Yergin wrote:First of all, they will certainly come from the Persian Gulf and its huge oil reserves. Secondly, the role of former USSR – Russia and the Caspian region – in oil supplies to the world market could become very significant. By 2025, their role may be equivalent to the one the Persian Gulf plays today. Western and Northern Africa is turning into the third fastest-growing region. These three regions will secure the main increase in oil production in the decades to come. Some oil producing countries, which are currently using just a little of their potential, may gain a more significant position. For example, the US sanctions against Libya were lifted in April. We’ll likely see Western investments coming to Libya’s oil sector before long, which will enable it to increase oil production. The market in neighboring Algeria is expected to open to foreign capital as well. These countries have been closed to Western companies for decades. The arrival of new technology would enable them to increase oil production considerably.
...this fear is not borne out by the fundamentals of supply. Our new, field-by-field analysis of production capacity, led by my colleagues Peter Jackson and Robert Esser, is quite at odds with the current view and leads to a strikingly different conclusion: There will be a large, unprecedented buildup of oil supply in the next few years. Between 2004 and 2010, capacity to produce oil (not actual production) could grow by 16 million barrels a day -- from 85 million barrels per day to 101 million barrels a day -- a 20 percent increase. Such growth over the next few years would relieve the current pressure on supply and demand.
...this fear is not borne out by the fundamentals of supply. Our new, field-by-field analysis of production capacity, led by my colleagues Peter Jackson and Robert Esser, is quite at odds with the current view and leads to a strikingly different conclusion: There will be a large, unprecedented buildup of oil supply in the next few years. Between 2004 and 2010, capacity to produce oil (not actual production) could grow by 16 million barrels a day -- from 85 million barrels per day to 101 million barrels a day -- a 20 percent increase. Such growth over the next few years would relieve the current pressure on supply and demand.
How does it compare to the Matthew Simmons version of reality?
The report expects Saudi Arabia’s liquids productive capacity to rise by 1.5 to 2.0 mbd by 2010, to about 12.5 mbd, and observes that the country is still “underexplored.”
Much of the impetus for high oil prices and increasing spreads between WTI and heavy crude in 2004 was that there was there was no ready refining capacity to absorb the growing quantities of heavy, sour oil.
Also by 2020 unconventional liquids will account for 34% of the total liquids capacity in 2020, compared with 22% percent today and less than 10% in 1990.
before starting to decline more slowly than might be thought today, as a step change in investment occurs and new technology is pumped into exploration, field upgrades, stranded gas, and heavy oil projects in a manner quite unlike any other period in the history of the oil industry.
HOUSTON - (Sept. 1, 2004) - IHS Energy, the leading global source of oil and gas information, analysis and software announced today it has acquired Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), the preeminent strategic knowledge advisor to the world's energy industry and to financial institutions and governments.
"The timing of this merger is based upon our common view of the needs ahead," said Yergin. "We have great respect for IHS Energy's global capabilities, its commitment to meeting the needs of the energy industry, and its core contribution to decision-making in the oil industry worldwide. This new partnership of IHS Energy and CERA provides the capabilities to meet the growing knowledge requirements of the oil industry, the newly emerging global gas business, the electric power industry and the financial community."
Aaron wrote:
Ahem... errrr.... ahem....
dmtu wrote:Someone remind me. I recognize the letters IHS but can't remember why the name is ominous.
LadyRuby wrote:What do you think of this article?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/29/AR2005072901672.html...this fear is not borne out by the fundamentals of supply. Our new, field-by-field analysis of production capacity, led by my colleagues Peter Jackson and Robert Esser, is quite at odds with the current view and leads to a strikingly different conclusion: There will be a large, unprecedented buildup of oil supply in the next few years. Between 2004 and 2010, capacity to produce oil (not actual production) could grow by 16 million barrels a day -- from 85 million barrels per day to 101 million barrels a day -- a 20 percent increase. Such growth over the next few years would relieve the current pressure on supply and demand.
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