AdamB wrote:warpig13 wrote:AdamB wrote:See what I mean, about conspiracy nutters not being worth talking to about peak oil? Why you CAN'T talk about peak oil coherently? Apparently data just doesn't have much meaning to you, so you just make it up as you go along, and those of us who know better are only left with giggling about Happy McDoomers and how they make the entire Church look bad.
OK I can work with that. So you're stating peak oil hasn't happened because consumption can't exceed supply.
I said no such thing. The most recent peak oil seems to be a late 2018 event, if I recall some charts folks have posted? I'll go with the data on this one, if I am off by much, feel free to correct me.warpig13 wrote:That is a fair point - maybe... I need to do some reading, digging and checking how we've managed to produce oil at an ever-increasing rate up until 2019.
We haven't. There was another global peak oil in 1979 that took some 15 years to recovery from, and then some times of steady production in this century, one of them around the recession of 2008 when that peak oil was declared by TOD. So no, global production hasn't always increased. It can't increase forever, obviously, so a peak is certain. It is the timing that has proven tricky.warpig13 wrote: If I'm honest that chart has surprised me. Now to see if those figures are correct and then to work out where the oil came from and what grade it is... Lots to check - unless you already know the answers?
I know quite a few answers. But the EIA has international energy statistics at the country level for past production, going back at least a few decades. A good website to have a shortcut for, when it comes to domestic or international oil and gas volume questions.
GHung wrote:The peak no one saw coming
By Tom Randall and Hayley Warren
December 1, 2020A year ago, if anyone in the petroleum business had suggested that the moment of Peak Oil had already passed, they would have been laughed right off the drilling rig. Then 2020 happened.
Planes stopped flying. Office workers stayed home. “Zooming with the grandkids” replaced driving to see family. A year of global hunkering yielded the sharpest drop in oil consumption since Henry Ford cobbled together the first Model T. At its worst, global demand dropped by a staggering 29 million barrels a day.
As a once-in-a-century pandemic played out, British oil giant BP Plc in September made an extraordinary call: Humanity’s thirst for oil may never again return to prior levels. That would make 2019 the high-water mark in oil history.
BP wasn’t the only one sounding an alarm. While none of the prominent forecasters were quite as bearish, predictions for peak oil started popping up everywhere. Even OPEC, the unflappably bullish cartel of major oil exporters, suddenly acknowledged an end in sight—albeit still two decades away. Taken together these forecasts mark an emerging view that this year’s drop in oil demand isn’t just another crash-and-grow event as seen throughout history. Covid-19 has accelerated long-term trends that are transforming where our energy comes from. Some of those changes will be permanent......
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020 ... pockethits
Pops wrote:But beyond that, when I pull my coal-roller up to the pump, it doesn't matter a whit to me whether I fill up from a vertical, horizontal, stimulated, fracked; foreign or domestic well; an oil/gas/tar, corn or turkey gut source, as long as I can afford the fare.
The problem with PO is all the original pundits (Hubert/Campbell/Laherrere/ etc) assumed past performance could predict future results, i.e., that the Hubert linearisation was a crystal ball. Turns out it isn't. It really can't predict ultimate production, reserve growth, discovery or technology. Which doesn't negate the premise—extraction of any finite resource will have a beginning, middle and end and at some point there will be a point of maximum production, a peak—it merely puts Peakers in the same boat as everyone else.
Which, as we all know about conspiracists, is where we hate to be, LOL The idea that covid and PO are the new tool of the global commie plot is... just another example. If you get to thinking: "oohh! I'm special, I know the REAL truth and billions of others are blind!" you'd better check yourself.
warpig13 wrote:Pops wrote:But beyond that, when I pull my coal-roller up to the pump, it doesn't matter a whit to me whether I fill up from a vertical, horizontal, stimulated, fracked; foreign or domestic well; an oil/gas/tar, corn or turkey gut source, as long as I can afford the fare.
Why are you even here? - Rhetorical!
Of course it matters when CONVENTIONAL oil peaks... because the US and German military have predicted the breakdown of modern society once supplies notably decline.
warpig13 wrote:GHung wrote:The peak no one saw coming
By Tom Randall and Hayley Warren
December 1, 2020A year ago, if anyone in the petroleum business had suggested that the moment of Peak Oil had already passed, they would have been laughed right off the drilling rig. Then 2020 happened.
Planes stopped flying. Office workers stayed home. “Zooming with the grandkids” replaced driving to see family. A year of global hunkering yielded the sharpest drop in oil consumption since Henry Ford cobbled together the first Model T. At its worst, global demand dropped by a staggering 29 million barrels a day.
As a once-in-a-century pandemic played out, British oil giant BP Plc in September made an extraordinary call: Humanity’s thirst for oil may never again return to prior levels. That would make 2019 the high-water mark in oil history.
BP wasn’t the only one sounding an alarm. While none of the prominent forecasters were quite as bearish, predictions for peak oil started popping up everywhere. Even OPEC, the unflappably bullish cartel of major oil exporters, suddenly acknowledged an end in sight—albeit still two decades away. Taken together these forecasts mark an emerging view that this year’s drop in oil demand isn’t just another crash-and-grow event as seen throughout history. Covid-19 has accelerated long-term trends that are transforming where our energy comes from. Some of those changes will be permanent......
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020 ... pockethits
Everything they're doing is Soooo.... obvious. Peak demand my arse, it's because they deliberately destroyed the economies of the world...
Pops wrote:Governments won't work together
aadbrd wrote:Pops wrote:Governments won't work together
I would expect governments to work better together during the Biden administration. I get it that some here are desperately afraid of such a thing, but the problems we face are global and should engender a global response, NWO fears or not.
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