My original account was created in 2004 and I'm happier than shit that my predictions didn't materialize!
I didn't think I'd live to the hard part, but hoped I would be able to help my kids learn some self sufficiency. My WAG was 2010-15 for peak, some period of plateau as we threw money at new conventional production, x-heavy, shale, turkey guts, burning food... then decline at some point with a long painful degrowth. I hoped for but wasn't confident in RE, conservation, government, human behavior.
Really lots of that happened or is happening, admittedly not in the exact manner I imagined. "Peak demand" behind GW is all the rage, I studied GW as much as was possible before we bugged out in 2003 but didn't expect it to gain as much of an audience—and denial-cult—as it has. GW mitigation IS PO mitigation for the most part so it's fine by me.
But exactly what happened between 2000-2014 is exactly what was predicted: high demand and limited supply created high price, prompting conservation, perhaps contributing to the recession and certainly slowing the recovery. Oil price only came down because fracking increased supply. Look at the trajectory, without LTO you can eyeball the trend as well as me.
No doubt fracking was the "something" that the cornies said "they'd" think of, and I did disparage LTO, didn't expect it to do what it did. Turns out it gave RE and EV and battery tech maybe just enough time to mature. But you gotta wonder how repeatable that Hail Mary equation is?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)