AdamB wrote:
We should begin arguing about how many peaks a region can have, rather than focusing on any one along the way.
Obviously regions can have multiple transient peaks in oil production. If you think you can predict how many transient rises and falls in production a region will experience, then go ahead and predict. I'm curious to see how you think can predict that, since it would be very dependent on changes in market price and technology.
However the final, highest level of oil production from an oil field or oil province or oil producing country (i.e. peak oil) is a more significant event and a more important benchmark then any transient, temporary rise and fall in oil production. Having said that, the exact timing of maximum oil production in the US still is somewhere off in the future, with the exact date being dependent on temporary changes in market price and the general economy as well as continued technologic advances in oil discovery and recovery and perhaps even on geopolitical factors. Peak oil demand and political restraints on oil production due to worries over climate change might also bring down oil production.
Yes, Hubbert got it very very wrong when he predicted US oil production would max out in 1970 . But the US will inevitably reach some maximum level of oil production, and its not unreasonable to wonder how many more years (or decades?} it will be until the US finally reaches "peak oil" production and what that level of maximum oil production will be.
The EIA, for instance, in 2014 predicted that global oil production will slowly and monotonically increase well into the future. More recently the IEA has become more pessimistic, while other oil prognosticators predict peak oil demand in only three years.
oil-demand-to-peak-in-three-years-says-energy-adviser I wonder which prediction will be right and which will join Hubbert's famous prediction in the dust bin of history.
IEA oil production forecast from 2014 shows global oil production going up up up.
Cheers!