AdamB wrote:Daniel Doom wrote:Zarquon wrote:(go watch Crude Awakening, and compare that to the reality that followed, as just one example)
DD: You mean the reality that oil zoomed up to USD147 a barrel and the world entered the worst recession since the Great Depression? You are only faulting the Crude Awakening documentary because it did not foresee the development of fracking that would buy us another decade of relief but you conveniently overlook that NOBODY ELSE foresaw that development either OR that a 10 or 12 year window of recovery in no way nullifies the peak oil thesis in the big scheme of things. It's like your football team is down 49 to 0 and you suddenly start exclaiming, "We're going to win after all!" when it kicks a field goal with 5 minutes remaining in the game. Hey, just 46 more points to go!
Peakzilla wrote:The title of my thread describes the interview well: the peak is back, baby!
AdamB: Titles can't be counted on to have anything to do with the video.
DD: In this case, it does, as I have already said. Trust me.
Peakvilla wrote:And you will be pleased (or perhaps displeased) to find that Mr. Gordon, a professional energy analyst, relies on perfectly mainstream sources such as WoodMac and Goldman Sachs, among others.
AdamB: So you are saying you have 1 guy to stack up against WoodMac, Rystad, Barclays, CSIS, and as of late DNL-GV?
DD: As I wrote above, Mark Gordon relies on mainstream sources, including, *as I wrote*, WoodMac specifically. *Also*, the last time we debated this I pointed out that WoodMac agreed with me, not you, saying that global oil demand would increase by 12 million barrels a day by 2035, so no global peak demand between now and then, and you ignored WoodMac that time too. Are you actually reading what WoodMac says or just skimming their headlines? You are the one who needs to rebut sources such as WoodMac in order to make your point:
https://www.woodmac.com/news/feature/th ... lack-gold/Demand for oil in developed countries will revert to structural decline by 2020, wiping out about four million barrels per day by 2035. In contrast, developing economies will increase their demand for oil by nearly 16 million barrels per day by 2035.[end quote]
DD: Please do the math: 16mb/d minus 4mb/d equals a 12mb/d *increase* in global demand by 2035. Of source, if prices rise enough to choke off demand, or if supply cannot keep up for technical reaons, we may not actually get there.
WoodMac also says that EV production will not ramp up quickly. In 2030, they expect EV's to make up only 10% of cars on the road, maybe less:
https://www.woodmac.com/news/editorial/ ... evolution/Although I do consider WoodMac to be optimistic, they are also guarded, apparently trying to straddle the fence between looking like unfashionable alarmists now and clueless pollyannas later, so you are overstating the optimism of the sources you claim to rely on. Although hesitant to stick out their necks very far, they nevertheless favor Gordon's arguments better than yours. Show us where Gordon (and WoodMac) are wrong.
"You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality."--Ayn Rand