.
A (simplfied) view of the Oil Peak is that the decline roughly correspond to half of the extractable crude
most field today extract a quarter or less of the crude in situ ,
if the recovery rise toward 50% it would probably follows the law of diminishing return.
Time is a factor , a slow recovery being ( probably ) capable of extracting more
however this would put the Peak in the future by several decades , thirty years being a wild guess
All fair and good , what of peak demand
crude oil is the base product for a bewildering range of products ,
while all could be produced in a lab without crude or gas ,
industrial production require very large quantity of the stuff
the demand is growing ,
not only because of a rise in the world population but also in the rise in the global standard of living
it is argued that demand do plateau in consumer countries ,
certainly the demand rise has slowed , some due to change in vehicle technology
but the larger decrease is due to de-industrialization ,
consumer production being moved to new , rising consumer markets , the products being then imported by the old producers
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environm ... on-leakageto call this a plateauing of consumption seems wrong ,
seen as a global trend , crude oil is still in great demand ,
the market price is not determined by the producers but by the international export market
about 30% of crude is exported , the large increase in US production contracted the world export market
It would seems that as long as the largest consumer doesn't import the price will remain low
but the largest consumer country is now China
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN1WT099On the face of it , China has a geopolitical problem ,
a vital resource transit is controlled by a country who doesn't care much what the price is