kublikhan wrote:Something is broken in this thread. I can only see the last page. Pages 1-3 display nothing.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Everything you said about this topic came true? You were saying the IPO would never get done at all. Now that it is happening you want to do a victory lap? Seems like eating a plate of crow is more appropriate.Plantagenet wrote:Things get discussed and debated at Peak Oil for years, and its rare that someone is proved to be completely right in everything they said. However this is such a time, and I want to take a victory lap here and now to celebrate the absolute correctness of everything I've posted about on this topic. For years I've maintained that the Saudi Aramco IPO would never get done in New York or London or any other major global exchange because the Saudis wouldn't be willing to go through the public disclosure process that is required.
Plantagenet wrote:The WSJ is reporting that Saudi Arabia is not going to go through with its plan to sell shares in Aramco and its oil assets
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Just five days ago KSA said they could raise their production by 2 million bbls/day to 12 million barrels/day. Now they are saying forget about that--- they can't do it. And whats more, forget about the IPO they've been preparing too. They're not going to do that either.
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insiders at ARAMCO say the IPO will never happen. I don't get why people don't understand the significance of this. The WSJ has written an article giving us a peek inside the secretive world of ARAMCO and KSA. The WSJ article provides early warning the world that the KSA IPO isn't likely to happen. Yes, it hasn't been officially cancelled yet---thats why the WSJ story is such big news. Its whats called a "scoop" by newsmen. The WSJ is breaking an important inside story here. Its like the stories warning that ENRON was about to collapse before it collapsed....knowledge is power and getting the info first is very powerful. IMHO People should pay attention to good journalism like this.
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the WSJ just reported that ARAMCO insiders actually want the IPO called off.
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they probably won't do the IPO.
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Actually, ARAMCO has so far failed to successfully offer its IPO and appears to be on the brink of abandoning their plan to do an IPO at all.
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according to the WSJ some top officials at ARAMCO don't want the IPO to happen at all.
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the WSJ and other media sources are reporting that the ARAMCO IPO is likely toast anyway.
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ARAMCO insiders are leaking to reporters at WSJ and elsewhere the news that the IPO ain't happen
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Your conspiracy theory seems rather unlikely to me, for three reasons. (1) People aren't going to buy the WSJ if it gets caught making up imaginary sources and reports fakes news. There are no incentives for the WSJ to do it, and lots of incentives so they won't make things up. The New York Times has gotten caught doing that sort of thing, but the WSJ is pretty reliable, IMHO. And (2) the same story about insiders at ARAMCO saying the IPO is dead has appeared in other financial news papers and news magazines as well so its not just the WSJ reporting this.
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Notice how the oil analyst in this CNBC segment actually snorts in disbelief that anyone could be so dumb as to think the ARAMCO IPO is going to happen.
kublikhan wrote:Plantagenet wrote:Plantagenet wrote:The WSJ is reporting that Saudi Arabia is not going to go through with its plan to sell shares in Aramco and its oil assets
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the WSJ just reported that ARAMCO insiders actually want the IPO called off.
...
they probably won't do the IPO.
...
Actually, ARAMCO has so far failed to successfully offer its IPO and appears to be on the brink of abandoning their plan to do an IPO at all.
...
according to the WSJ some top officials at ARAMCO don't want the IPO to happen at all.
...
the WSJ and other media sources are reporting that the ARAMCO IPO is likely toast anyway.
...
ARAMCO insiders are leaking to reporters at WSJ and elsewhere the news that the IPO ain't happen....
I’m surprised that you don’t understand that just as the Wall Street Journal and I predicted back then, it didn’t happen. Perhaps you didn’t notice, but I was right——the IPO didn’t get done as planned in New York or London or Paris or Tokyo or in Beijing or on any major exchange.
The latest news is that the Saudis have conceded failure on their plan to do their IPO in a major stock exchange, and will instead do the IPO on their own tiny stock exchange in Saudi Arabia, where the ROyal Family can directly influence the process and where disclosure rules are weak to non-existent.
Of course, when you do your IPO on a podunk local stock exchange where you control the financial disclosure requirements and there is no independent media reporting and your main refining facility was just blown up by some mysterious rocket attack, there is likely to be some concern among investors about the nature and value and inherent risk of the IPO.
Another factor is that Saudi Aramco lost so much time in their failed efforts to do the IPO in New York that the global IPO market has now cooled off. The bottom line here is that questions raised by the long delay and the now the fact that Saudi Aramco has been reduced to doing the IPO on the teeny tiny local Saudi stock exchange may cost them as much as 500 billion to one trillion dollars in market value for the IPO.
kublikhan wrote:Those quotes are from last year, 2018.
kublikhan wrote:they quote you talking about the IPO being toast, dead, not happening at all... Now you are ... trying to say you only meant it wouldn't get done in New York or London.
kublikhan wrote: These are the predictions you are doing a victory lap about?
Thats because Saudi Aramco was proposing to do an IPO in New York or London, and I (and most financial analysts like those I quoted from the WSJ) felt that would never happen. And indeed it didn't happen.
Yes, precisely. I maintained for years (along with many financial journalists) that Saudi Aramco would never do the IPO they proposed to do in New York, London or other major market because they would balk at meeting the disclosure requirements.
And now we see they have given up that plan.
In addition to not understanding what the discussion was about, you also seem to have been totally oblivious to the reasons I posted explaining why Saudi Aramco would never be able to do an IPO in New York or London. Major open markets like those in New York or London have DISCLOSURE REQUIREMENTS. Companies are required to disclose all relevant financial information before they are allowed to go ahead with their IPOs. Prince Muhammad and the Saudi Royal family don't want to disclose the amount of control they have over Saudi Aramco. They want to pretend that its an independent company like any other company, and that future business decisions will be made purely in the interest of the company. But this isn't true. Saudi Arabia is a monarchy and the Royal family basically controls and largely owns Saudi Aramco.
Again, the financial journalists at FORBES are concerned about the exact same things I've been pointing out......the lack of disclosure necessary to do an IPO on the tiny Tadawul stock market makes this IPO much different then a typical IPO done in New York or London.
Its not even clear if the few metrics Saudi Aramco has released can be trusted, since there is no independent verification being done by the Saudi stock exchange.
This just highlights the degree of risk involved in investing in the Saudi Aramco IPO. Its well known that the company is controlled by Prince Muhammad and the Saudi Royal Family and is run for the benefit of the royal family rather then for the benefit of shareholders---but the degree and nature of this control still hasn't been revealed. Add to this the failure of Saudi Aramco to successfully do their IPO on a major western stock exchange and instead list the IPO on the tiny Saudi stock exchange, which is also strongly influenced by the Saudi royal family and which will not require full disclosure of the corporate governance of Saudi Aramco. And combine it all with what has been revealed, i.e. that the profitability of Saudi Aramco took a big hit after the the recent Iranian missile attack, and the new prospectus does little to calm investor's fears over the inherent risks in the Saudi Aramco IPO.
rockdoc123 wrote:The degree and control of the company is all outlined in the prospectus ....not a lot different than any major public corporation.
How many "major public corporations" can you name that are controlled by a royal family and managed for their benefit?
Given the lack of disclosure required to list on the teeny tiny Saudi exchange, which is controlled by the Saudi Royal family anyway, potential investors have concerns about this IPO and the role of the Saudi Royal family in controlling saudi Aramco, resulting in a huge drop in the amount of money the Saudis will be able to get from the IPO
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