Revi wrote:I wonder if that IEA chart that Pops posted takes into account the drop in supply that was caused by the Saudi attacks?
James West, a managing director at Investment bank Evercore ISI, assessed the situation for the Wall Street Journal. “We’re getting closer to peak production and we are reaching the peak of the general physics of these wells,” he said.
Monthly U.S. crude oil production fell by 276,000 barrels per day (b/d) in July 2019, based on the latest data in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Petroleum Supply Monthly. This hurricane-related decrease was the largest decline in monthly crude oil production in more than a decade. The decline was temporary and geographically isolated to the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico. EIA expects that U.S. crude oil production will continue to increase through the remainder of 2019.
EdwinSm wrote:If the Peak was around November last year, we have done well to keep going a year without major collapse (signs of stress are there, but the economic system is still holding together).
Pops wrote:Thanks for the Laherrere post
The 3600 Gb ultimate results from plotting the HL of '09-'18 production.
Pops wrote:Here is another report[/url] linked to on Laherrere's page, I've not looked at it closely but the snapshot is peak soon and fairly fast decline after 2030
That would jibe with fast decline of the remaining large reservoirs and inability of non-conventionals to keep up. Not the shark but not great either.
Revi wrote:If the bump is all just unconventional oil we are in trouble. The rest of the world hasn't figured out how to get people to pay to produce it yet. It's going to be a shock when it isn't 98% of the growth in oil production the way it has been lately.
Revi wrote: Will next year's oil supply be able to top 2019? Have we hit the peak? What do you think?
Revi wrote:it's strange how it hasn't affected even the price of oil this week. Maybe we aren't anywhere near peak...
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