...... China's plans to move up the value chain and hi-tech-ify its economy and to do so with enough force to set back China and permanently prevent it from successfully climbing the arch trajectory of replacing the US.
bochen777 wrote:In an escalated Trade War China can ban rare earth exports to the US. This would cause some pain for America but it would be a single use tactic for the Chinese. Trump is wanting to buy Greenland for this exact reason.
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And then there is wildcards like AI, quantum computing, peak oil / deminishing eroei..... if AI doesn't progress as fast as people hope and if Peak Oil is real, then it would be a brutal zero sum game and a sort of fight to the death mad max style between the world's powers...
ralfy wrote:It's not just decoupling from China but facing the effects of such on the dollar as a reserve currency.
bochen777 wrote:The dollar is like a platform that America exclusively controls via the right to sanction others (backed by the force of its strong military) and the exclusive right to print/mint dollars/digits via Fed/Quantitative Easing etc... It is a double edged sword that on one hand America forces others to use the dollar else regieme change (Saddam, Iran, Venezula etc) and on the other hand it enables America to economically cripple nations that don't kowtow to them by applying direct and secondary sanctions against them. (often making the arguement that these sanctioned nations have unlawfully used American owned financial instruments (aka US dollar) in their dealings/trade with other nations and hence these nations should be 'reigeme changed' and also collaterially threatening other nations that dare trade with them or go against the US sanctions) The kidnapping of the Huawei CFO was based on the grounds that Huawei did business with Iran using dollars, and the pushback against China for continuing to buy oil from the US sanctioned Iran is also because it involves trade with Dollars. So it allows the US to essentially weaponize the dollar as a means of conducting economic warfare against other nations, not to mention it is a form of global usury as it unlawfully 'taxations' the globe and it dilutes the effects of inflation at home by wiping out the purchasing power of the dollars held/saved by other nations and entities abroad.
bochen777 wrote:So given this perspective, to the US it would be better to cut all ties now, while the US is still technologically and militaristically ahead, than to continue business as usual and lead to the inevitable outcome of being supplanted as world #1 spot...
For the US, its goal is to decouple quickly enough from China, and to asymettrically target and destroy any tip of the spear Chinese companies/projects/tech such as the Huawei, 5G, DJI, EV, trains, etc etc to cripple China's plans to move up the value chain and hi-tech-ify its economy and to do so with enough force to set back China and permanently prevent it from successfully climbing the arch trajectory of replacing the US.
How will this most likely play out?
bochen777 wrote:In an escalated Trade War China can ban rare earth exports to the US. This would cause some pain for America but it would be a single use tactic for the Chinese. Trump is wanting to buy Greenland for this exact reason.
China’s Hidden Economic Time Bomb
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China’s turn to what Deng Xiaoping called “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics” after 1979 was in fact a state-controlled turn to western companies and investment to take advantage of China’s seemingly unlimited low cost labor. That labor mostly came from those born prior to 1979, before the One Child Policy. A worker in his mid-20s in 1980 was in his 50s by the time of the 2008-9 crisis in the West. Demographic change is a slow process and could be overlooked in the boom years before 2008. Now, in the past decade, manufacturing wages across China are rising and the population born under the One Child era are notably fewer, adding to recent rising wage pressures.
As China’s manufacturing has moved up the value-added chain as part of its development strategy of Made in China, wages have risen significantly. The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates that from 2013-2020 average manufacturing labor costs have risen on average 12% a year. Today average factory wage costs in China are some three times that of India and far higher than in Indonesia or Vietnam.
At the same time as higher skilled labor is needed for China’s fast-developing manufacturing base, especially under the mandates of the Made in China2025 transformation to a world high-tech economy, the size of the overall workforce, once considered nearly limitless, has begun to decline. China’s labor force peaked in 2015 and has begun shrinking, albeit slowly at first. That decline now is pre-programmed to accelerate as the pre-1979 workforce reaches retirement age and is not replaced in equal numbers after 1979 due to the drastic decline in births. According to Deutsche Bank estimates, the work force will shrink from 911 million in 2015, to 849 million in 2020, and to 782 million in 2030. Barring a dramatic change in birth rates, beginning about 2025 China’s overall population will begin a slow but accelerating decline as well.
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China is ageing faster than almost any other country because the number of new births has been blocked while those born are living far longer. By 2016 China had the lowest fertility rate in the world—1.05 according to China’s 2016 State Statistical Bureau data. Social changes encourage young women to postpone marriage and pursue careers, while rural practice encourages male over female births, all of which drive fertility rates lower.
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Plantagenet wrote:PS: Ultimately the economic competition will be superseded by the sheer need to survive in the face of climate change. China will be very severely affected by climate change because hundreds of millions of Chinese live in low-lying areas on the delta of the Yellow River and other deltas along the east coast of China. Any increase in sea level will fairly quickly produce millions and millions of refugees, severely disrupting the China economy.
EnergyUnlimited wrote:Within 20-25 years US will be a predominately Latino country resembling Mexico in its workings. Taste of it can already be seen in California.
EnergyUnlimited wrote:Russia, mainly due to rampant alcoholism and abortions, is rapidly depopulating.
Russian Slavic women increasingly prefer Chinese as their husbands because there are better prospects with them.
Chinese were always considering russian Far East to be their own, under temporary russian rule.
So there will be a takeover, a peaceful one indeed, assisted by voluntary russsian suicide.
So Chinese will get *the most valuable lands* from perspective of climate change.
Future is bright for China.
Time to throw a towel and negotiate terms of surrender.
China wins.
EnergyUnlimited wrote:Within 20-25 years US will be a predominately Latino country resembling Mexico in its workings. Taste of it can already be seen in California.That is demographics, very predictable.
There won't be sufficient intellectual potential in the United States to compete with very intelligent and well organized Chinese who will have russian Far East as a bonus at their disposal.
Please do not take these statements as something malicious (most members are Americans).
It is just how I see it from perspective of distant observer base on evidence I have.
Plantagenet wrote:the millions of Islamic immigrants that are entering the EU and failing to assimilate.
mousepad wrote:Plantagenet wrote:the millions of Islamic immigrants that are entering the EU and failing to assimilate.
you got that one backwards.
It's the europeans who are expected to assimilate. And they are stupid enough to do so.
Changing christian holidays in schools as not to offend muslims, changing food in cafeterias as not to offend muslims, outlawing certain words as not to offend muslims....
Europe is a friendly place...
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