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Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 09:24:48

The State of the US Economy. Poverty and America’s “Mega-Rich”. Rigged Markets and the Collapse of the “Real Economy”


The FED has been busy little beavers!
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 09:33:16

Is shorty getting into palm reading and seances now?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 15:42:49

Cog wrote:Is shorty getting into palm reading and seances now?


OMG!!! I never thought about that! Could Shorty himself be a Savinar sock puppet?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 15:46:59

onlooker wrote:
The State of the US Economy. Poverty and America’s “Mega-Rich”. Rigged Markets and the Collapse of the “Real Economy”



https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-state ... my/5679785


You know, peak oil was a reasonable idea to discuss when it was Colin and Deffeyes and the USGS and EIA and such, and then it got polluted when the Rupperts and Savinars and random bloggers got involved.

Do you really have to jump straight to the garbage sources so quickly on the state of the US economy? Which, if memory serves, the likes of this reference has been claiming is about to crash since inception?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 08:27:29

Argentina is slowly going Venezuela. A power blackout has hit Argentina.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48652686
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 10:21:15

Argentina is slowly going Venezuela. A power blackout has hit Argentina.


Jesus wept....although the former President Christina Kirshner was left of centre the current President Macri is very pro business. No restrictions on foreign companies investing in the country, transparency in taxes etc. The problems they face are to do with too much power in the hands of the unions (continual strikes for salaries that are higher than an equivalent job in the US) and high inflation and related currency exchange restrictions. But those have been problems for well over a couple of decades. As to power outages....happens all the time during peak power usage in the summer months (air conditioning) or in the couple of winter months where some heating is required. It was like this a decade ago and has only recently improved somewhat. Buenos Aires has an issue in getting enough gas powered electricity when they need it. Prior to ramp up of the Vaca Muerta production gas was imported from Bolivia at prices upwards of $9/Mmcf and LNG was imported at prices that once got as high as $14/Mmcf. The production from unconventionals has helped to bring down the amount of imports but there is still a ways to go and the power network still needs improvements. Argentina is a very big country and transmission of gas and power has to occur over considerable distances. As an example bringing gas from Tierra Del Fuego (where Total has about 13 TCF) onshore and north to Buenos Aires would be approximately equivalent to transmitting the same from northern Montana to Houston.
And suggesting Argentina is anything like Venezuela in terms of economic wherewithal is absurd. BA is a city comparable to the largest well off cities in Europe. Ranchers who have a mix of cattle and wineries across Patagonia and elsewhere are very wealthy. Many of the estancias are owned by wealthy European families who still wield considerable political influence both in the provinces as well as with the federal gov't.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 11:58:26

Argentina has high energy prices and an expensive energy infrastructure, in combination with high labour costs and falling commodity prices, which has led to a deteriorating current account balance.

The currency has no other way to go than down, which in turn shows up as high inflation and deteriorating living standards...and unions going on strike to demand higher wages.

Argentina would have defaulted on its external debt last year without an IMF bailout.

Argentina was the first nation last year where people took to the streets to protest rising fuel costs as oil prices were rising.

Things would perhaps been a lot better if Argentina had large reserves of conventional oil and gas reserves? But that is not the reality of today.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 13:17:58

Yoshua wrote: A power blackout has hit Argentina.


A massive electrical failure has left almost all of Argentina and Uruguay without power, according to a major Argentine electricity provider.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48652686
Our local tv news also include Brazil and Chile as having been hit with this outbreak.

Maybe 11 years overdue :oops: , but this does seem to be the sort of thing Richard C Duncan was warning in his Olduvai Theory that electricity production and consumption are getting so complicated that a break could easily bring down the whole system.

[Making this reference sort of shows my age 8O . The original paper sort of makes the 'doomers' of this forum look decidedly positive in their outlook, as his cliff and rapid decent into darkness was to start in 2008 :roll: ]
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 17 Jun 2019, 02:25:56

The lights are back on in Argentina. It looks as if Argentina is suffering from the same problem as Venezuela: a decaying power infrastructure.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/argentina-uru ... Gp32X5VW6V
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 17 Jun 2019, 15:23:08

Things would perhaps been a lot better if Argentina had large reserves of conventional oil and gas reserves? But that is not the reality of today.


Argentina has a significant supply of very good quality oil. The problem is that it lays in very small fields. The majors developed fields in the Middle East, and in the states instead. Argentina’s El Tordillo field, 1959, described in SPE 113334, is a good example. OOIP 2,665,714 barrels of 33° low sulfur crude. Lots of very small fields that will never be developed. The rest of the world has now run into the same situation.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 17 Jun 2019, 17:28:41

Argentina’s El Tordillo field, 1959, described in SPE 113334, is a good example. OOIP 2,665,714 barrels of 33° low sulfur crude. Lots of very small fields that will never be developed.


Loud of complete bollocks. El Tordillo (pronounced El Tordizho) was actually discovered in 1932 and produced continuously by YPF from 1932 to 1991 and then sold to Tecpetrol who have been producing since then under waterflood. It is classified as a mature developed field with somewhere in the order of 1000 wells having been drilled and has taken a long to time to produce given the complex nature of the reservoir interconnectivity. Primary recovery in the field was 10% and reservoir models suggest ultimate secondary recovery of 40%. So the claim that it is "lots of small fields that will never be developed" is complete BS.
In fact, having worked in Argentina for a number of years in the upstream sector I can attest to the fact there are no small fields that have not been developed at this point in time. Even Llancanelo which is a very heavy oil field located partially in an environemental reserve has been developed by YPF. Canadian independent companies who have been active in Argentina for many years along with a number of small independent Argentine companies have seen to the fact that all small discoveries have been monetized.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 12:01:56

The Stock Market is the Economy...

and yet I'm hard pressed to find an Energy Corp that has produced a positive return in the past 5 years. Exxon, BP, Chevron, Royal Dutch, etc NOTHING.

Same can be said for Auto Manufacturers including Tesla

Same goes for Siemens and GE.

Obviously, massive depletion at North Ghawar triggered a negative EROEI Event in 2014. Next Event is scheduled for 2022. That will turn ALL Energy Corps into Penny Stocks instead of just most of them as it is today.

The STock Market Economy is obviously running on OxCarts.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 11:19:22

The energy efficiency of the U.S economy is 32 percent...68 percent goes to waste heat.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D901VumX4AE ... me=900x900
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 11:55:03

[quote]The energy efficiency of the U.S economy is 32 percent...68 percent goes to waste heat.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D901VumX4AE ... me=900x900 [quote]

That is 1,603 usable BTU per $ of GDP. Frying an egg is getting expensive; running a refinery must be horrible. Compared to 1970 it's a nightmare. In 1970 gross energy (which doesn't account for waste heat) was selling for 58,650 BTU per $. It is now 4,790 gross BTU per $. Around 3,750 gross BTU per $, everything stops working.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 12:36:17

shortonoil wrote:
Things would perhaps been a lot better if Argentina had large reserves of conventional oil and gas reserves? But that is not the reality of today.


Argentina has a significant supply of very good quality oil. The problem is that it lays in very small fields. The majors developed fields in the Middle East, and in the states instead. Argentina’s El Tordillo field, 1959, described in SPE 113334, is a good example. OOIP 2,665,714 barrels of 33° low sulfur crude. Lots of very small fields that will never be developed. The rest of the world has now run into the same situation.


So you want to use a paper discussing nothing more than using gels for improved sweep efficiency, nearly 12 years old, as a means to draw a global conclusion from?

Current information has it as the 10th largest in Argentina. Out of 867. How many of the other 866 are you familiar with?

And what is the 1959? Some form of half-assed footnote? The discovery well is listed as having been drilled before mid-century.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 12:38:39

StarvingLion wrote:The Stock Market is the Economy...


And money is useless.

Yes....we know Starving, you live in a different universe.

When I run to the grocery store this afternoon to trade useless money for some bakery buns, not only will I be proving your old point wrong, but I will be creating some economy right there without even using the stock market.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 12:40:52

shortonoil wrote:
The energy efficiency of the U.S economy is 32 percent...68 percent goes to waste heat.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D901VumX4AE ... me=900x900


That is 1,603 usable BTU per $ of GDP. Frying an egg is getting expensive; running a refinery must be horrible. Compared to 1970 it's a nightmare. In 1970 gross energy (which doesn't account for waste heat) was selling for 58,650 BTU per $. It is now 4,790 gross BTU per $. Around 3,750 gross BTU per $, everything stops working.


I'll check numbers those numbers on the day you pay off on your bet welsher. You have gotten nearly everything you write down wrong, so it will probably be a waste of time, but I'm game and I'll do it because I don't welsh on bets like you do.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 12:43:15

EdwinSm wrote:Maybe 11 years overdue :oops: , but this does seem to be the sort of thing Richard C Duncan was warning in his Olduvai Theory that electricity production and consumption are getting so complicated that a break could easily bring down the whole system.


"11 years overdue" being the operative phase. And later in time, after the original concept was already out, Richard claimed it would happen in the US (maybe North America?) for lack of natural gas. Isn't that the funniest damn thing in the world considering what happened next? Ask a resource economist about how resources work before becoming a laughingstock I always say.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby marmico » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 13:31:24

More moronic BS from the ETP Bozo.

That is 1,603 usable BTU per $ of GDP


Lawrence Livermore (LL) has been publishing these Sankey diagrams since 1950.

https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/ene ... L51487.pdf

LL estimated that in 1970 usable energy was 31.1 quads of 61.6 total primary energy quads. Using ETP Bozo's retarded preferred current $ GDP method, 1 quad of usable energy was associated with $0.035 trillion of GDP in 1970 ($1.07 trillion GDP divided by 31 quads = $0.035 trillion/quad).

Fast forward to 2018. 1 quad of usable energy was associated with $0.63 trillion of GDP ($20.4 trillion GDP divided by 32 quads = $0.63 trillion/quad).

It's a factor of 18 (0.63/0.035). 1 quad of usable energy is associated with 18 times more GDP in 2018 than in 1970.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 13:38:13

'll check numbers those numbers on the day you pay off on your bet"


Can't pay you - (as we should have expected) you sleaze balls have been cheating! The EIA has been cooking its books.

viewtopic.php?p=1421512#p1421512
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9dMsQ2WsAA ... me=900x900

Well why not? Maybe they got some on the job training from the BLS. They do it every month!

Got to keep those prices up: The Saudis have to pay for their 28 million, live in, welfare recipients. The real market price of oil won't cover it.

Between Venezuela, and Iran the US has already taken over 5 mb/d off line, and still the price has not gone up. To protect its own producers, and its preferred suppliers the US will have to continue removing supplies by any means available to it.

The approaching end of the oil age will be indicative of a declining economy that can no longer utilize all the oil being produced. If those 5mb/d had not been removed inventories would now be more than doubled, and the price of oil would be about $10 a barrel. More production will have to be taken out in the coming year to support prices. Have you got any suggestions on where that might come from? More war stories will help, and the US will not invade anyone just like it didn't invade North Korea, Venezuela, or Iran. Just because you bunch of laser brains are idiots doesn't mean everyone is.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-globa ... KKCN1TP02G
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD

That is EIA and World Bank data. But since you are a *BDSS we'll leave it at that.

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