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China and Coal Pt. 2

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby clif » Fri 21 Aug 2015, 00:06:10

how to cheaply remove CO2 from the air.


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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 29 Aug 2015, 19:08:31

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/ ... 8A20150829

China passes new pollution law, sets sights on coal consumption cap

(I'm just reporting this development, here; not claiming it's any kind of game changer.)
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 31 Aug 2015, 02:07:56

While its good to note changes in Chinese law; keep an eye on their purpose and implementation. China's concern isn't CO2, its particulates in their big cities, smog; the nasty stuff we dealt with in the late 60s.

I'm fairly convinced their long game doesn't involve any reduction in the quantity of coal burned, but rather, changing the location that the coal is burned at. Namely, Eastern RF. It technically won't be China's emission anymore; and Russia won't care what we say their emissions are or should be. Atmospheric flow makes your average Russian oblivious of air quality in the East. So its also a non-issue domestically for Russia; and any opposition voice will get labeled with a precious "foreign agent" label, and thus unable to win an election even for Dog Catcher of the Slum.
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 18 Sep 2015, 00:15:03

Thanks to Csnavywx at neven's site for this:

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=22952#

"Systematic (again) under-reporting of coal usage in China. Revised figures now place actual production well above 4B tonnes/yr, once again demonstrating that taking newly printed numbers as gospel is unwise. Chinese coal statistics are more like a fine wine, they get better with age."

New preliminary data from the China Statistical Abstract 2015 (CSA2015) show an upward revision to China's historical coal consumption and production. Energy-content-based coal consumption from 2000 to 2013 is up to 14% higher than previously reported, while coal production is up to 7% higher. These revisions also affect China's total primary energy consumption and production, which are also higher than previously reported—up to 11% and 7% in some years, respectively, mainly because of the revisions to coal. In 2014, energy-content-based coal consumption was essentially flat, and production declined by 2.6%.


"The issue here is that the latest GDP numbers are widely thought to be overstated. Indeed the industrial and RE sectors (where a lot of this coal is used towards) are likely in outright contraction (they were earlier in the year, at least). The latest export numbers were abysmal. So this posturing about China voluntarily lowering emissions through tough regulations is also likely wildly overblown. No doubt they're taking the air pollution issues fairly seriously, but the biggest response so far has to been to construct coal plants outside the cities (including coal-to-gas, which is in full swing) and run super-high voltage lines to the coasts. This isn't a long term strategy to tackle CO2 emissions."
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 18 Sep 2015, 05:26:19

Good catch dohboi. I've always been amazed at folks who thought China would turn from cheap coal during a period of booming oil prices. Especially with the Chinese almost pathologic desire for growth. You want a big omelet...you crack a lot of eggs. You want a big economy...you consume a lot of energy. It ain't rocket science. LOL
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 18 Sep 2015, 07:56:20

I do think that Chinese coal use cannot continue to grow at the same rates it has been doing on average for the last couple decades--there's just not enough coal available to them to do so, and there is the immediate problem of air pollution from plants near cities. But, yeah, it will likely be those kind of factors more than GW issues that will curb their use.

Perhaps when they start loosing entire provinces (much of Jiangsu province, just north of Shanghai with a some 80 million people in it, is a meter or less above sea level) and also perhaps when some big coastal cities get ravaged by mega storms, then maybe they'll start to wise up. Maybe.

Of course, Sandy didn't seem to make a whole hell of a difference in US national GW policies, so who knows what level of disaster would be necessary to get through to the psychopaths that seem to be ruling much of the world...
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Re: China Cuts in Coal Use Mean World Emissions Peak Before

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 08 Nov 2015, 05:20:33

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/n ... a-suggests
China under reporting Coal consumption.
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Re: China and Coal (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 04:29:53

Economic Times reported that China's coal output in November hit its highest since June at 299.98 million tonnes, data showed, boosted by firm demand from coal-fired power plants as the country's heating season kicked off in the middle of the month. Analysts expect coal demand in the world's top consumer of the fuel to continue to rise in the coming months as many homes have reverted to using the commodity for heating due to natural gas shortages. Many are also using electric heaters, drawing on power from coal-fired power plants.

Demand for gas has surged this winter after the government ordered millions of households and industrial plants across the north to switch to the cleaner fuel from coal as part of its war against smog.

But supplies have not been able to keep up with the extra consumption. The nation's capital city Beijing will restart a coal-fired power plant to help ease the deepening gas supply crunch.

Ms Wang Fei, a coal analyst at Huaan Futures said that "The decrease of coal consumption from households has been offset by the soaring demand from utilities."

Coal remains China's major fuel for power producers, with more than two-thirds of its electricity generated from coal-fired plants in October even as Beijing aims to promote renewables and natural gas.

Ms Wang said that "Coal supplies remain tight in some regions due to increasing demand from power, chemicals and metallurgy sectors. The authorities will continue to release high-quality coal capacity to ensure sufficient fuel supplies."

The monthly total was down 2.7 % on the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

Output over the first eleven months of the year reached 3.14 billion tonnes, up 3.7 percent compared with the same period of last year. The country produced 3.64 billion tonnes in 2016, the third annual drop.

The production of coke used in steelmaking fell 10.9 % in November to 34.47 million tonnes, with year-to-date output reaching 398.43 million tonnes, down 2.7 %.


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Re: China and Coal Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 07 Jun 2019, 11:20:00

China's coal consumption on the rise

Coal consumption peaked in China in 2013 at 4.24 billion tonnes. Then government efforts to improve the energy structure and tackle pollution saw coal use fall between 2014 and 2016. Following a small increase in 2017 consumption rose again in 2018, according to figures published on February 28 by the National Bureau of Statistics.

Experts say this second consecutive annual increase suggests China may have de-prioritised energy saving and emissions reduction, owing to the pressures of its slowing economy. Another wave of infrastructure investment is also slowing the decoupling of the economy from energy consumption.

A faltering transition?

The rebound in coal consumption has increased China’s CO2 emissions. Greenpeace calculates that they grew by around 3% last year, the largest increase since 2013.

There have been a number of recent proposals for coal consumption to be allowed to grow in China, so as to reduce pressure on energy supplies, with calls for more coal gasification or liquification. Zhou Dadi, head of the National Development and Reform Commission’s Energy Research Institute, said in response that “regardless of how much you improve the technology, coal remains inefficient and carbon-intensive. It would be a step backwards to go from global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to... a return to reliance on coal.”

Commenting on the idea of “clean coal power”, He Jiankun, chair of the academic board of Tsinghua University’s Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development, told chinadialogue that “coal can be used in cleaner ways, but it can never actually be clean and low carbon. Don’t get those ideas confused.”

He added that China’s green transition is a tough challenge: a quick shift from peak carbon to zero carbon. But if China can make it happen, it will have more control over its future.

Positive trends

Despite some increase in coal use, consumption has not returned to 2013 levels and the overall trend remains downwards.

In 2018, coal accounted for 59% of China’s total energy consumption, 1.4 percentage points down on the previous year and the first time coal has accounted for less than 60% of primary energy. Clean energy, which in China includes natural gas alongside hydro, solar and wind, accounted for 22.1% of total energy consumption, up by 1.3 percentage points.

China is expected to reach its 13th Five Year Plan goal of reducing coal to under 58% of total energy consumption in 2020.

Zhou Dadi said that 2019 will be a crucial year for intermediate targets in the government’s “assault on air pollution”. With end-of-pipe measures in coal power stations, such as sulphur and nitrate scrubbers and dust collectors, having been installed on a wide scale, the next stage must rely on changes to the energy structure.

Rapidly growing electricity demand

The new 2018 data also showed a 7.7% increase in electricity generation and a 8.5% increase in total electricity use. These are new highs since the economic slowdown started in 2012, and outstrip the year’s GDP growth of 6.6%.

On one hand, this shows accelerating cleaning up of end-user energy consumption: electricity is replacing gas and oil. But it also reflects greater investment in infrastructure as a response to the economic downturn, with energy-hungry industries such as coal, steel, cement and chemicals recovering and swelling electricity demand. These industries remain the drivers of economic growth in China, making reductions in coal-use less achievable.

A new round of industry and construction stimulus would condemn global emissions to grow for another several years.

The jump in electricity consumption highlights the complexity of China’s green transition. Pollution cuts in some industries mean higher electricity consumption. The steel industry is an example. Yuan Jiahai, professor at North China Electric Power University’s Economy and Management College, explained that with inefficient capacity being eliminated, more electric furnaces being used, and environmental-protection equipment coming online, electricity use in the steel industry rose 9.8%. That is 8.6 percentage points more than the previous year, and equates to a contribution of 0.8 percentage points to the increase in total electricity consumption.

An infrastructure revival?

Some analysts worry that increasing economic uncertainty may lead the Chinese government to again promote growth with a major stimulus package.

In China, economic stimulus often means infrastructure construction. Some such construction may be necessary, but it spurs the production of energy-intensive building materials (like steel and cement) and demand for electricity, and so increases coal consumption and emissions.

As the world’s largest carbon emitter, China’s choices affect global climate efforts. Lauri Myllyvirta, an energy analyst with Greenpeace, said in an article last November that “a new round of industry and construction stimulus would condemn global emissions to grow for another several years.”

So far the government has avoided a comprehensive stimulus package in favour of more targeted measures, such as investing 86 billion yuan (US$12.8 billion) in high-speed rail and subways.

Iris Pang, an analyst with international financial services group ING, estimated in November that China would inject around 4 trillion yuan (US$600 billion) into the economy in 2019. Based on data on investment in fixed assets, she also predicted that infrastructure investment would be the main driver of economic growth in 2019. This means demand for metal products will continue to grow.

But as recently as last week, Premier Li Keqiang reiterated that there would be no “flooding” of the economy with stimulus.

Yuan Jiahai indicated that the macroeconomic growth outlook for 2019 is bound to be tougher than 2018, due to a global slowdown and the US–China trade war. He said the government has emphasised “infrastructure investments need to be stable... in sectors such as transportation and power.” But he added “I don't expect that economic stimulus will lead to significant incentives for energy-intensive industries.”

According to a document published on the National Development and Reform Commission’s website on February 26, this year will see increased “new-style infrastructure investment” in crucial technologies, high-end equipment, and key components and parts.” Liu Jia, a researcher with Renmu Consulting, said “In industry terms, the quality of China’s infrastructure construction is increasing. But it’s still not clear from the data how this construction will affect carbon emissions.”

Now more than ever…

chinadialogue is at the heart of the battle for truth on climate change and its challenges at this critical time.

Our readers are valued by us and now, for the first time, we are asking for your support to help maintain the rigorous, honest reporting and analysis on climate change that you value in a 'post-truth' era.


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