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THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Tornadoes

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 17 Oct 2018, 07:09:55

Tornadoes are spinning up farther east in U.S. and scientists don't know why
Over the past few decades tornadoes have been shifting — decreasing in Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas but spinning up more in states along the Mississippi River and farther east, a new study shows. Scientists aren't quite certain why.

Tornado activity is increasing most in Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa and parts of Ohio and Michigan, according to a study in Wednesday's journal Climate and Atmospheric Science. There has been a slight decrease in the Great Plains, with the biggest drop in central and eastern Texas. Even with the decline, Texas still gets the most tornadoes of any state.

The shift could be deadly because the area with increasing tornado activity is bigger and home to more people, said study lead author Victor Gensini, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Northern Illinois University. Also more people live in vulnerable mobile homes and tornadoes are more likely to happen at night in those places, he said.

Even though Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma get many more tornadoes, the four deadliest states for tornadoes are Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee and Arkansas, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The study looked at changes since 1979. Everywhere east of the Mississippi, except the west coast of Florida, is seeing some increase in tornado activity. The biggest increase occurred in states bordering the Mississippi River.

Why is this happening? "We don't know," Gensini said. "This is super consistent with climate change."

As the Great Plains dry out, there's less moisture to have the type of storms that spawn tornadoes, Gensini said. Tornadoes form along the "dry line" where there are more thunderstorms because there's dry air to the west and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico to the east.

That dry line is moving east.

"This is what you would expect in a climate change scenario, we just have no way of confirming it at the moment," Gensini said.

Gensini said unless there are specific detailed studies, he and others cannot say this is caused by global warming, just that it looks like what is expected.

Pennsylvania State University meteorology professor Paul Markowski, who wasn't part of the research, praised the study as careful and well done.

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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby jawagord » Thu 27 Dec 2018, 23:48:59

Another inconvenient truth?

In the whirlwind that is 2018, there has been a notable lack of high-end twisters.
We're now days away from this becoming the first year in the modern record with no violent tornadoes touching down in the United States. Violent tornadoes are the strongest on a 0 to 5 scale, or those ranked EF4 or EF5.

The low tornado count is undoubtedly a big part of the reason the 10 tornado deaths in 2018 is also vying to be a record low.


Expanding to include all "intense" tornadoes, or those F/EF3+, this year's 12 is also poised to set a record for the least.
Right now, the mark there is held by 1987 when there were 15 F3+ tornadoes. As with violent tornadoes, this grouping is also exhibiting both a short and long-term decrease in annual numbers, likely for similar reasons.

https://www.lmtonline.com/news/article/ ... 491861.php
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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 28 Dec 2018, 00:19:15

Yep, similar issue with hurricanes (in the Atlantic basin).

Increased heat in the atmosphere means increased energy that can go into make stronger wind shear, and wind shear is very effective at breaking up patterns of circulating air, whether they're tornadoes or cyclones.

(If you've ever paddled a canoe, you can see a similar effect in the eddies the paddle tends to make. They can be remarkable persistent and deep, but slice across them with your paddle, and the immediately fall apart.

Our local science museum has a cool little machine that creates tiny tornadoes, but run you hand through it, and it breaks apart quite easily, till the force of the machine eventually re-establishes it.)

So you don't necessarily get more of them in numbers. You do, however, start getting tornadoes in places and at times of year that you wouldn't normally expect them.

Any other questions? :)
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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 28 Dec 2018, 16:00:34

jawagord wrote:Another inconvenient truth?

In the whirlwind that is 2018, there has been a notable lack of high-end twisters.

...

https://www.lmtonline.com/news/article/ ... 491861.php

But one year is far from enough data to be able to say much about a decades long trend.

They commonly use 30 years of data to look at climate change trends. If this big twister let-up lasts for, say, 5 years or more, then that would be something to take a serious look at, IMO.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 29 Dec 2018, 10:47:25

Good point, OS.
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Re: THE Tornado Thread Pt. 1(merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 29 Dec 2018, 16:49:30

dohboi wrote:Yep, similar issue with hurricanes (in the Atlantic basin).

Increased heat in the atmosphere means increased energy that can go into make stronger wind shear, and wind shear is very effective at breaking up patterns of circulating air, whether they're tornadoes or cyclones.

(If you've ever paddled a canoe, you can see a similar effect in the eddies the paddle tends to make. They can be remarkable persistent and deep, but slice across them with your paddle, and the immediately fall apart.

Our local science museum has a cool little machine that creates tiny tornadoes, but run you hand through it, and it breaks apart quite easily, till the force of the machine eventually re-establishes it.)

So you don't necessarily get more of them in numbers. You do, however, start getting tornadoes in places and at times of year that you wouldn't normally expect them.

Any other questions? :)


thus the theory going back to the 1950's that we could disrupt dangerous hurricanes and prevent billions in damage and life loss by dropping carefully placed H-bombs in them while far out to sea.
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