KaiserJeep wrote:If I understand the situation correctly, the US supply of conventional oil has peaked some months ago, and the present demand is being filled with a combination of heavy oils (tar sands, etc) and lighter oils (condensates, etc.) from fracking.
Can the deficit of conventional oil be replaced by blending the heavy and light components? Can this mix be used to make diesel and home heating fuels, even if it costs more to do that than by conventional petroleum?
Just trying to understand the US perspective on a diesel shortage that is primarily outside the US today. That diesel costs more than gasoline in the US today will soon increase the cost of everything transported by truck or rail. Home heating oil that is more expensive will bite me personally. My Nantucket home uses oil and natural gas is not available on the island - but LPG is available and some use it for heat.
So far, it seems more like an incovenience for refineries than a genuine hydrocarbon production shortfall. But maybe I am missing something.
...... the refineries are indeed having difficulty in producing quality fuels from combining of tar sands and light-tight shale oil. The industry thought by combining the heavy tar sands oil and U.S. light shale oil, it would make an average oil blend, similar to good ole fashion medium grade API conventional oil.
However, it has turned out to be a real nightmare as this Tar Sands-Shale Oil blend creates a lot of difficulties for the refineries. So, it will be interesting to see how the situation unfolds in the global refinery market when U.S. shale oil finally peaks.
Revi wrote:Here in Maine the price of regular gasoline is at $2.28 and the price of regular diesel is $3.32. So it's over a dollar more. The price of heating oil is around $3.00, so it's going to be a harder winter for some people. I can't remember a time when diesel was more than a dollar more than gas.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
The way I see it, the heavy oil and the light one from Shale/fracking, was NOT used extensively before because the EROEI is not good.
Revi wrote:How about this?
Global fuel oil production was approximately 8.9 million BPD in 2015. Around 3.1 million BPD of this volume was used as a bunker fuel. At 35% of the total, bunker fuel was the dominant use of fuel oil. Fuel oil is also used for electricity generation, heating and for a variety of industrial purposes. In 2015, the fuel oil component represented only slightly more than half of the total bunker demand, with the rest being mostly distillates....
While bunker fuel demand has been slowly rising in recent years, nonbunker fuel oil demand has been falling for decades. Since 1986, nonbunker fuel oil demand is down by nearly 60% and further declines are expected through the next decade. By 2020, we estimate global nonbunker fuel oil demand to be slightly over 4.1 million BPD.
http://www.turnermason.com/index.php/he ... er-bunker/
rockdoc123 wrote:The way I see it, the heavy oil and the light one from Shale/fracking, was NOT used extensively before because the EROEI is not good.
completely incorrect. The US has been blending heavy oil and light oil to put into refineries for many years. The refineries were all retooled years ago to take advantage of returns from cracking heavier components. Previously the heavy oil came from a mix of countries but primarily Canada and Venezuela and light oil was imported from places like Saudi Arabia. The only difference that has occurred is that Venezuela has become less of a source of heavy with Canada replacing the volumes and the light oil that was previously imported for blending is now being replaced by US production of LTO.
Pops wrote:This is just memory but seems way back here we were talking about how thr refiners were retooling to take heavier crudes from CA, MX, Venezuela, because light sweet was beginning to dwindle
ROCKMAN wrote:T - Is one of us misunderstanding what Revi posted: "I can't remember a time when diesel was more than a dollar more than gas." Your chart seems to confirm his post. Or am I confused?
Tanada wrote:This chart shows wholesale prices reaching a level of over 80 cents a gallon in the last decade. Combined with local fuel taxes in Ohio and Michigan where I have lived the last decade that created a $1/gallon differential at the pump that lasted a seemingly long time, decreased for a few month below threshold and then went back above the $1/gallon mark again. At that time around here rail traffic almost doubled and road truck traffic took a steep hit.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
onlooker wrote:rockdoc123 wrote:The way I see it, the heavy oil and the light one from Shale/fracking, was NOT used extensively before because the EROEI is not good.
completely incorrect. The US has been blending heavy oil and light oil to put into refineries for many years. The refineries were all retooled years ago to take advantage of returns from cracking heavier components. Previously the heavy oil came from a mix of countries but primarily Canada and Venezuela and light oil was imported from places like Saudi Arabia. The only difference that has occurred is that Venezuela has become less of a source of heavy with Canada replacing the volumes and the light oil that was previously imported for blending is now being replaced by US production of LTO.
Really. I said extensively. In past times NO talk of a shale boom, or exploitation of the tar sands of Canada or Eagle Ford or Fracking or any of that. Conventional reserves were meeting very well world wide demand. Then in 2005, coinciding with this site going online, we hear of peak conventional crude. We have people freaking out here on this site, We have PO experts like Campbell and Laheire calling peak, we have the runup to $147 oil in 2008. So no you cannot say this was all happening before 2005 because it didn't.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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