KaiserJeep wrote:I read this thread and I just cannot fathom the answer to "the" question. I fully realize the answer is not simple, the question is not easy to answer, and any answer is not without considerable ambibuity, but you guys are experts.
Have we passed the oil peak, or not?
I, for one, have NEVER claimed to be an expert on oil production. I'm a layman who came here to learn more about oil/energy, to help me over time with that segment of my investments.
OTOH, I can read numbers and simple graphs.
Until the global production of refinable crude oil, condensates, etc. -- the stuff that produces things like gasoline and diesel and jet fuel and asphalt, etc. when refined, stops increasing nearly every year global GDP increases -- it is simply LUDICROUS to claim "oil production has peaked", or IMO, "oil production is about to peak".
I don't see how that's unreasonable, but then again, I'm not a Cassandra.
IMO, when we see a 5 year window where each year global oil production is falling while global GDP is rising AND the price of oil is rising (indicating growing demand in the face of current supplies), THEN it will make sense to start investigating whether oil has perhaps peaked, or there are other factors happening.
For example, sometime in the next few decades, I expect EV's to displace the need for most gas and diesel consumption. And oil production may well drop. But when that occurs, the price won't be constantly rising, if it is a "lack of demand" issues instead of a "lack of supply" issue the Cassandras keep wrongly claiming ad nauseum.
So to me, the numbers don't lie, over time. OTOH, I also don't believe the MSM is all a giant conspiracy to hide the truth, like many Cassandras like to claim when their predictions fall flat.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.