We are still in early days with the USA - China trade wars, but there is the threat that ALL Chinese goods will be into the USA will have higher taxes [https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44898629]. While this will increase inflation in the USA, it might lead to a collapse of trade.
So far the Baltic Dry Index is near the top of its 52 week range. [https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND] This means that it does not look as if this index is showing signs of showing excess capacity, that I would expect from fewer goods being ship due to higher prices, but then we are only at the beginning stages in this.
While sea transport is very efficient, the movement of goods also involves less energy efficient trucks and sometimes trains. So is the Baltic Dry Index a good proxy measure for the amount of fuel needed for world wide movement of goods?
I suppose at this stage I do not see much reduction in oil needs brought about by the early stages of the trade wars.
ps. feel free to deal with other economic factors of this, like inflation.