AdamB wrote:You never know how many of the Happy McPeaksters are left until..you know...you ask a question and see if they are too embarrassed by their oil ignorance to show up and answer. Or not.
Besides, the title to this thread is important, you see, the US has since demonstrated the sine wave function of oil production, and I am working my way through this thread to see if someone knew it could happen before it did. Because then not only would I not be originator of the idea, but someone might have actually figured this out, right here on this forum, before it actually happened. And you can't find any peak oiler here who managed that, so it is quite the anomaly.
tita wrote:The global oil demand doesn't follow a sine wave function... It's more like straight growth. There was like two visible decrease in the last 40 years...
tita wrote:The sine-wave function can only happen if the global supply-demand of oil reach some plateau, and then oscillate around some rate level. Both from demand and supply unable to set a balanced price for both to grow. This would put some real stress on the global economy, as the price would be volatile.
We are not in such situation. Both global supply and demand are growing
ROCKMAN wrote:It's amazing how many charts of US oil production show almost nothing before 1900. PA had its boom around 1865. In fact: At the peak of the oil boom, Pennsylvania wells were producing one third of the world’s oil. At one point PA was doing about 4 mm bbls/yr. But that's just a guess since no official records were kept.
ralfy wrote:More like 30+ years post-peak.
ralfy wrote:More like 30+ years post-peak.
tita wrote:AdamB wrote:You never know how many of the Happy McPeaksters are left until..you know...you ask a question and see if they are too embarrassed by their oil ignorance to show up and answer. Or not.
Well, maybe AirlinePilot, who make some appearance from time to time... But mcgo was last seen 6 years ago. And anyway, what we thought 9 years ago changed a lot.
tita wrote:Besides, the title to this thread is important, you see, the US has since demonstrated the sine wave function of oil production, and I am working my way through this thread to see if someone knew it could happen before it did. Because then not only would I not be originator of the idea, but someone might have actually figured this out, right here on this forum, before it actually happened. And you can't find any peak oiler here who managed that, so it is quite the anomaly.
The global oil demand doesn't follow a sine wave function... It's more like straight growth. There was like two visible decrease in the last 40 years...
tita wrote:But yeah the idea of multiple peaks in production is indeed real. Either because geopolitical events like in Russia. Or in the case of the US for technological and economical events. Not exactly sine-wave function anyway.
The sine-wave function can only happen if the global supply-demand of oil reach some plateau, and then oscillate around some rate level. Both from demand and supply unable to set a balanced price for both to grow. This would put some real stress on the global economy, as the price would be volatile.
We are not in such situation. Both global supply and demand are growing
ralfy wrote:ROCKMAN wrote:It's amazing how many charts of US oil production show almost nothing before 1900. PA had its boom around 1865. In fact: At the peak of the oil boom, Pennsylvania wells were producing one third of the world’s oil. At one point PA was doing about 4 mm bbls/yr. But that's just a guess since no official records were kept.
Also, the world population was much smaller then, together with a global capitalist system on a scale similar to the current one.
AdamB wrote:Shorty is spewing...
Pete has been running around...
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