U.S. shale is growing at a scorching rate, but will the shale industry be around for the long haul? A new study calls into question the heady projections for shale oil and gas, arguing that expectations of huge levels of production for decades to come are based on shaky assumptions. The Post Carbon Institute’s report argues that the EIA is overstating the potential of U.S. shale, calling the projections “highly to extremely optimistic, and are therefore very unlikely to be realized.” The report argues that while U.S. oil production has doubled from 2005 levels, and shale gas has also exploded over the same timeframe, there are underlying problems that will always bedevil shale production. For instance, shale wells typically see production deplete by 70 to 90 percent in the first three years, while fields see output drop off by about 20 to
The Shale Boom Might Not Last Long