The global demand for crude oil will peak in 2030 as electric vehicles continue to chip away at the market for gasoline-powered cars and trucks. So say analysts with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who predict that EVs will grow to 40 percent of new-car sales worldwide over the next 12 years. “Electric vehicles will likely start to erode this last major bastion of oil demand growth in the early 2020s and cause global oil demand to peak by 2030,” the analysts wrote in an emailed research note, according to Bloomberg. The new analysis is a more aggressive outlook than that of other experts, including the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and OPEC, all of which don't see the demand for oil starting to decline until 2040. Meanwhile, Royal Dutch Shell CEO Ben van Beurden has said oil could peak as soon as the late 2020s or early ..
Newfie wrote:I don’t get the concern over “peak demand”.
Let’s say we are at 95% of peak today.
At 2030 we are at 100%.
At 2050 we are at 90%.
What is peak PRODUCTION?
Let’s say we are at 100% today.
At 2030 we are at 95%
At 2050 we are at 80%
The question is not total demand, but what fraction of demand that can be met by production. If production falls below demand price will skyrocket.
Now I think we have a long way to go through conservation to limit the impact but not an infinite way to go. At some point there will be a bottom and no more adaptation.
Newfie wrote:I don’t get the concern over “peak demand”.
Newfie wrote:Now I think we have a long way to go through conservation to limit the impact but not an infinite way to go. At some point there will be a bottom and no more adaptation.
AdamB wrote:
Sure. And a century after that humans will be yucking it up like we do nowadays about supply and demand for whale oil. Haven't heard of all those problems caused by lack of supply and demand for whale oil nowadays? See what I mean.
vtsnowedin wrote:
Can you say the same for any substitute for petroleum products today?
I thought not!
Substitutes existed and were promptly found that more then met the demand for the uses of the previous product.
Can you say the same for any substitute for petroleum products today?
I thought not!
ROCKMAN wrote:Adam - "Entire countries now adding more EVs to the fleet than ICE powered machines...". Interesting. Had not seen that stat elsewhere. Please name a few of those countries. Thanks in advance.
vtsnowedin wrote:Substitutes existed and were promptly found that more then met the demand for the uses of the previous product.
Can you say the same for any substitute for petroleum products today?
I thought not!
You missed this part.Adam B.
Sure some substitutes exist but can they be geared up to replace 85 million barrels of oil a day.
vtsnowedin wrote:There is the rub.
vtsnowedin wrote:You can't double the output of the electric grid with wind and solar so there is a limit of how many EVs you can put out there, and GTL only works if you have the gas. It's not the lack of new technologies it is the shear scale of the problem that will leave many on foot and in the dark.
ROCKMAN wrote:Adam - "Entire countries now adding more EVs to the fleet than ICE powered machines...". Interesting. Had not seen that stat elsewhere. Please name a few of those countries. Thanks in advance.
AdamB wrote:.....
And when we are talking about peak demand theories, we obviously have abandoned the Albert Bartlett fallacy of growth as exponential. It wasn't when he was claiming it, it isn't now, it won't be in the future.
asg70 wrote:Time and time again, when all else fails, peak oilers shift the topic over to the debt bomb.
GHung wrote:AdamB wrote:.....
And when we are talking about peak demand theories, we obviously have abandoned the Albert Bartlett fallacy of growth as exponential. It wasn't when he was claiming it, it isn't now, it won't be in the future.
Bartlett talked more about debt than demand. Not exponential?
Maybe you think it will just go away if you ignore it, eh?
AdamB wrote:
Debt is as real as you think it is. Change the value of the currency, print your own money, and it can do whatever you'd like, just keep putting those zeros on the tail end until you run out of room on the bills.
But you can't do that with physicals like oil. Bartlett should have known better, as should you. Perhaps we can ask your uncle about the difference between the make believe, and the real?
Exxon Mobil Corp said on Friday that it expects global oil demand to drop sharply by 2040 if regulations aimed at limiting the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on climate are fully implemented. An oil pump jack is seen at sunset in a field outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann Under this scenario, Exxon projected world oil consumption will drop 0.4 percent annually to 2040 to about 78 million barrels per day (bpd). That is about 25 percent below current levels, which the U.S. Energy Information Administration puts at 98 million bpd. The findings were contained in a report produced after Exxon’s shareholders supported a climate-impact resolution last year and Exxon’s board approved a plan to analyze the effects. Exxon’s climate-impact report comes roughly three years after almost 200 nations met in Paris to set a goal of limiting
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 35 guests