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ennui2 wrote:SumYunGai wrote:The German banking problems didn't happen in a vacuum...Everything is connected
Ah, the always popular fallback of vague correlation = causation. Good old Chris Martenson's Crash Course * dot connecting which is about as funky as Glenn Beck's chalkboard connecting Obama to "bad stuff". Yes, everything's connected.... Is it in a circle--in a hoop that never ends? Nice and catchy and culty. Unfortunately, lacking in cold hard facts.
* Now remarketed as Peak Prosperity because...oil glut.
SumYunGai wrote:Are you arguing that the economy doesn't need energy?
Looking at you Spain consumption chart it seems clear that oil prices played a role.
BahamasEd wrote:Yes, and by the EIA we are still producing more then we are using so we can't start working off the glut until then balance.
So by their forecast it should balance sometime next year and I would think it would take another year to work down the glut so prices can start to rise again, maybe sometime in 2018.
But the EIA predicts the future about as well as I do.
So I stand by my statement, Oil is not cheap yet, it needs do drop back down into the $20s to clear the market. I think that if the price stays between $45 to $60 then production will continue to out pace consumption
https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/repo ... al_oil.cfm
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
onlooker wrote:Quite some time ago, Richard Heinberg was already anticipating this rollercoaster ride in prices in his book "When the Party is Over" But, the important thing to note is that this seesaw effect will get progressively worse so that as both the Oil Industsry and thus the Economy descend ever more, the ability of the oil price to recover ie get higher and of the Economy to get better fizzles out due to energy/economic constraints.
onlooker wrote:So you don't see depletion and thermodynamics working in the background limiting the ability to maneuver economically? In particular these background factors creating Net Energy shortfalls that affect adversely both the Energy Industry and the General Economy
Tanada wrote:BahamasEd wrote:Yes, and by the EIA we are still producing more then we are using so we can't start working off the glut until then balance.
So by their forecast it should balance sometime next year and I would think it would take another year to work down the glut so prices can start to rise again, maybe sometime in 2018.
But the EIA predicts the future about as well as I do.
So I stand by my statement, Oil is not cheap yet, it needs do drop back down into the $20s to clear the market. I think that if the price stays between $45 to $60 then production will continue to out pace consumption
https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/repo ... al_oil.cfm
16 months down the road it looks like the EIA staff was not as wrong as you thought. Prices stayed right in your range for most of that period and the glut has receded considerably due to world economic growth.
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