Plantagenet wrote:AdamB wrote: Usually your posts reflect thought, but pretending that tight resource development was invented by Pioneer ain't that.
Your posts also usually reflect some thoughtfulness, but you clearly didn't understand my posts above.
Sure I did. Hence the question about whether or not you were trolling.
Plantagenet wrote:For instance, I never stated that tight resource development was "invented" by Pioneer. I said that Pioneer was a big early player in developing tight oil shale resources in the Permian basin.
No, you didn't. Here is what you said:
Plantagenet wrote:For instance the people at Pioneer Exploration (PXD) basically discovered the tight shale resource in the Permian and they say it will peak in ca. 2020.
Pioneer didn't "basically" discover tight shale resources in the Permian. And that has nothing to do with horizontal wells or hydraulic fracturing.
Plantagenet wrote: This enabled Pioneer to become by far the largest oil producer in the Permian basin. This suggests that Pioneer has considerable expertise concerning tight oil shale in the Permian basin. What aspect of those factual statements could you possibly object to?
The Spraberry isn't usually considered a shale, and that is where Pioneer makes about 2/3's of its total production. And where about 2/3's of its production increase since 2010 has happened. You have a theory as to why you are implying that they became the largest not because of a pre-existing acreage position and multiple formations chock full of oil (the Spraberry being their favorite) but because of shale developing in the Wolfcamp?
Perhaps you are unaware of Pioneer's origin, and the acreage that came along with the creation of the company? And then the decisions to increase that acreage position? That is what led them to being the largest producer..some 900,000 acres.
Scott Sheffield is certainly bullish on why.Plantagenet wrote:AdamB wrote: the entire link between the Permian and global peak is about as ignorant a statement as Simmons saying the same thing about Ghawar.
Yes, Simmons did't predict the extremely successful development we've seen of unconventional oil resources after conventional oil peaked, but his concerns about Ghawar peaking remain 100% valid.
Concerns about ANY field peaking is valid, just as the capability to UNpeak is, it is like pretending that a claim of the sun rising in the east tomorrow is a wildly original idea. Simmons couldn't define "unconventional" oil any better than you or anyone else, and Simmons didn't see shale coming because he was IGNORANT, he could see it in his time just as posters on this website could, so you want to claim Simmons was so brilliant that he couldn't even see coming what some random internet forum posters could see? Fine...you can consider him not ignorant...and I can rank his understanding of the resource base as inferior to average forum denizens.
Plantagenet wrote:The link I'm suggesting between Peak Permian and peak oil is more speculative, I admit, but the logic is pretty simple to follow. Let me lay my ideas on this out for you in four simple steps:
(1) Global conventional oil has already peaked
(2) Global oil production nonetheless continues to rise due to growth in unconventional oil production
(3) If unconventional oil production peaks, then growth in conventional AND unconventional oil production will stop, and we will once again be looking at peak oil
(4) There is concern that the Permian is going to peak ca. 2020 (see the link at the top of this thread), while other unconventional tight oil areas like Bakken seem to have already peaked.
Cheers!
1) You can't define conventional oil because oil is oil and isn't categorized by the type of rock it comes from, otherwise we would have semi-conventional carbonate oil, conventional sandstone oil, unconventional Orinoco oil, sorta conventional resource play oil, and all of these oils being...you know...just oil. So no, global OIL production hasn't peaked.
2) Is true and has nothing to do with folks sub-setting oil for arbitrary reasons, oil mostly being...you know...oil.
3) We've already looked at peak oil. 1979 being the good one, with multiple others claimed since then. You, me, everyone on this website has successfully navigated all of those, and it is unlikely yet another oil production cycle (accounted for by the sine wave of oil production theory) will change that, unless you have a theory why the NEXT peak oil is expected to be different from all the others?
4) Peaks happen...and then sometimes they happen again. Any reason to believe that yet another peak oil is any more significant than the at least 4 others claimed in this century? You got an inside connection to Hubbert's ghost telling you how many more we've got nowadays?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"