tita wrote: yes, the general idea is probably right... but we don't know when .... Forecasts (especially eia) tend to be wrong.
pstarr wrote:Plant.... it's pretty obvious US tight-shale is about peaked already. .... Is 2020 optimistic? Closer to now might be more reasonable.
The world’s hottest shale basin, the Permian, is leading the second U.S. wave of tight oil production growth and will continue to do so for years to come, all analysts say. However, signs have started to emerge that the relentless intensification of drilling leads to diminishing returns, Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in an article this week. Pumping twice as much sand as usual into Permian wells and drilling longer laterals doesn’t deliver commensurate volumes of oil, Flowers notes. “Drilling costs rise exponentially with depth, and there’s a suspicion that longer wells are hitting a cost efficiency ceiling,” WoodMac’s chief analyst writes. Moreover, after the early production-exuberance stage, drillers are now much more focused on delivering profits and higher profit margins. They now favor quality over quantity, and value over volumes. “Might the Permian be reaching the limits
Plantagenet wrote:The world hit peak conventional oil production in ca. 2005, just as predicted by Colin Campbell and others who looked at the world's conventional oil fields.
coffeeguyzz wrote:- truth is - Permian, Bakken, EF, PRB, Austin Chalk, Uinta, along with SCOOP, STACK, Niobrara, Rogersville, TMS, and who knows how many others, will be pumping earl far, FAR off into the future.
mmasters wrote:I predict by 2025 or 2030 the US will begin to have natural gas vehicles in the market. We've got at least 20-30 years of natural gas.
Natural gas-fired generating capacity likely to increase over next two years
The electricity industry is planning to increase natural gas-fired generating capacity by 11.2 gigawatts (GW) in 2017 and 25.4 GW in 2018, based on information reported to EIA. If these plants come online as planned, annual net additions in natural gas capacity would be at their highest levels since 2005. On a combined basis, these 2017–18 additions would increase natural gas capacity by 8% from the capacity existing at the end of 2016. Depending on the timing and utilization of these plants, the new additions could help natural gas maintain its status as the primary energy source for power generation, even if natural gas prices rise moderately.
The upcoming expansion of natural gas-fired electricity generating capacity follows five years of net reductions of total coal-fired electricity generating capacity. Available coal-fired capacity fell by an estimated 47.2 GW between the end of 2011 and the end of 2016, equivalent to a 15% reduction in the coal fleet over the five-year period.
The electricity industry has been retiring some coal-fired generators and converting others to run on natural gas in response to the implementation of environmental regulations and to the sustained low cost of natural gas. The cost of natural gas delivered to power generators fell from an average price of $5.00 per million Btu (MMBtu) in 2014 to $3.23/MMBtu in 2015 and averaged $2.78/MMBtu from January through October 2016, the latest available data.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29732
dcoyne78 wrote:Hi Ghung,
Certainly wind and solar would be preferred, but natural gas is better than coal.
For each unit of electricity produced about 2.3 times more CO2 is emitted by the average coal fired power plant compared to natural gas power plants (based on US 2015 data.)
Better energy efficiency is the best approach, more renewable energy next best, nuclear a possible next best approach, then natural gas, and coal would be the bottom of the list.
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=74&t=11
tita wrote:But yes, the general idea is probably right... but we don't know when or how high. Forecasts (especially eia) tend to be wrong.
Plantagenet wrote:I started this thread because insiders in the Oil Industry who work in the Permian are talking about a 2020 peak in the Permian. These are people who are in a position to know exactly how successful current well completions are, and just how much more production can be increased. For instance the people at Pioneer Exploration (PXD) basically discovered the tight shale resource in the Permian and they say it will peak in ca. 2020.
pstarr wrote:So yes, tight shale has peaked. The last great hurrah
AdamB wrote:Plantagenet wrote:I started this thread because insiders in the Oil Industry who work in the Permian are talking about a 2020 peak in the Permian. These are people who are in a position to know exactly how successful current well completions are, and just how much more production can be increased. For instance the people at Pioneer Exploration (PXD) basically discovered the tight shale resource in the Permian and they say it will peak in ca. 2020.
So...Wolfcamp production in the Permian...back in say 1955, produced by Texaco and Amoco, Mobil, Union Oil of California, Amerada Hess, Arco, was discovered by Pioneer...42 years later when they were formed in 1997?
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