Newfie wrote:Kiwi,
Thanks. I disagree but can't absorb this right now. Embarking on a 1,000 mile 2 day drive in about 10 minutes. Will read latter.
kiwichick wrote:https://www.populationmatters.org/documents/overshoot_index.pdf
Sustainable global population according to this estimate ...... 4 billion
"The U.N. has in recent years continually raised its midline projection for 2100 world population, from 9.1 billion in a 2004 estimate to 11.2 billion today. Almost all of the unanticipated increase comes from Africa."
Fertility rates are not dropping as expected in Africa, while death rates have fallen. The result is that the vast majority of population growth will be in the Africa, mostly in the some of the poorest countries in the world. UN estimates now put the Africa population at between 3-6 billion in 2100 depending on growth rates - previously they had assumed 2 billion. Of course, the probability of extensive social collapse and widespread famine before we get there is extremely high. With an extremely young population, a lot of violence can be expected.
North Africa seems to have lowered its population growth rate to 2%ish, and South Africa is now below 2%. In between though, very high growth rates - many in the specific areas that climate change will negatively affect. A good example - Nigeria already has 186 million people (under 100million 20 years ago), and with a 2.6% growth rate will double every 28 years - so nearly 400 million by the mid 2040's. Uganda's population is growing at over 3% a year (doubles every two decades, now at 40 million)
In 40% of the world's nations, the birth rate is already at or below replacement level (2.1) while in Africa it is still at 4.7.
Also a big issue for possible population migration: "As many as 37 percent of young adults in sub-Saharan Africa say they want to move to another country, mostly because of a lack of employment."
Watch the world's population grow over the course of history on this amazing map! RT LIVE http://rt.com/on-ai
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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