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Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 07:53:15

The amount of debt is unknown because the fed doesn't release M3 data.


M3 is still published by John Williams at http://www.shadowstats.com/. The Fed's excuse for discontinuing M3 was to "save money'. Which must have been about $10 since they already had all the numbers complied. That is where Williams gets his. The real reason behind discontinuing it was probably because M3 makes it very obvious that the economy is going no where; in a hurry. They needed a reason to put their QE printing fiasco in place, and put the cost on the taxpayers bill. QE was put in place to save the banks and Wall Street at everyone else's expense. It has worked just as planned.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_da ... ply-charts
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby creedoninmo » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 09:06:35

The BBC last night said that the FED was going to start selling treasuries. In a sane world that would raise yields and interest rates. Maybe the FED is concerned about the falling dollar and is going to save it.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby Cog » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 09:12:06

The amount of ignorance about what the Fed and Treasury actually does in this country is astounding.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 09:35:08

Gasoline production has essentially not risen since 2007. Click Finished Motor Gasoline, then graph at the top of the column.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_CONS_P ... MBBL_A.htm

Crude inputs to refiners have increased, but there has been no increase in output. The difference is being consumed in the process as the quality of crude input has declined.

http://thehillsgroup.thehillsgroup.info ... el-is.html

Consumption has probably declined as production has stayed about the same over the last decade, but the imports of gasoline have gone down while exports of gasoline have gone up.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_w ... blpd_w.htm

Fewer and fewer people in the labor force who are not driving to work every day is probably a contributing factor.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby marmico » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 09:44:30

The FED makes a pile of dough, in excess of $600 billion since 2008.

Image

Shadowstats Williams is a quack like ETP Bozo.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 09:58:44

The BBC last night said that the FED was going to start selling treasuries. In a sane world that would raise yields and interest rates. Maybe the FED is concerned about the falling dollar and is going to save it.


They can't sell most of their other assets, such as the MBS that they bought for full face value, and are now worth about 2¢ on the dollar. It would revel that they are basically insolvent. They can sell 10 year paper because the banks will buy them; the 10 year is what banks use for interbank settlement. This may be a way of putting some slope to the now flat yield curve, and also keep the illusion that they really are going to reduce their balance sheet. The FED will definitely do anything to save the dollar; its their entire stock and trade. Their net value is zero without it.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 11:23:20

We have given up even mentioning debt on the national stage. Along with peak oil its the monster in the basement. Just don't open the door.


They are two problems for which no one has an answer! They will just keep pushing on this old buggy until it goes over the edge, and continue to ignore that the bridge is out. It is sort of interesting how a majority of the society has been conditioned into ignoring its own up and coming oblivion, but it can be put into spasms of fear of over climate change, or the need for safe spaces. It really makes one wonder if the monkey brain got wired correctly.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 13:29:59

creedoninmo wrote:The world is still producing gasoline at greater and greater debt. The amount of debt is unknown because the fed doesn't release M3 data.


If the debt is unknown then why do you think it's there in the first place?

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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 14:07:07

Cog wrote:The amount of ignorance about what the Fed and Treasury actually does in this country is astounding.

I generally agree with that.

However, I don't see what you object to in the last statement creedomino made (I am assuming this comment is in response to that).

It's not immediately intuitive, but if the fed sells treasuries, the theory is that it will soak up a bunch of the excess cash sloshing around in the economy. i.e. it would be shrinking its huge balance sheet, which it ballooned starting in 2008 when it bought a bunch of treasuries and distributed cash to banks.

If a lot (i.e. several $trillions) of such cash goes away, then the expectation is it will drive up interest rates.

Looking around a bit on the web and thinking a bit about it, I fail to see a problem with that basic premise.

...

Now when and whether they actually get around to DOING that (instead of claiming they will and reneging, over and over) is, of course, a completely different issue. i.e. it's little wonder why the fed is so broadly mistrusted in the US, IMO.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 14:10:17

If the debt is unknown then why do you think it's there in the first place?


We are now ready for the the next incredibly stupid question. Wait for it, here it comes!
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 14:18:46

shortonoil wrote:
We have given up even mentioning debt on the national stage. Along with peak oil its the monster in the basement. Just don't open the door.


They are two problems for which no one has an answer! They will just keep pushing on this old buggy until it goes over the edge, and continue to ignore that the bridge is out. It is sort of interesting how a majority of the society has been conditioned into ignoring its own up and coming oblivion, but it can be put into spasms of fear of over climate change, or the need for safe spaces. It really makes one wonder if the monkey brain got wired correctly.

That's funny. When I Google "US debt ceiling", I get a bunch of hits on articles discussing it and expressing concern, from June, July, and in the past couple of days. One from CBS news under "top stories".

When I Google "US $20 trillion debt" I get a whole bunch of articles dated 2016 and mostly 2017. So, just citing this example, how is that "we have even given up mentioning debt"?

And as distasteful as I find lots of debt in the long term, why is it a big deal as long as it doesn't rise as fast as the GDP, long term?

I first started noticing articles proclaiming rapid economic US doom due to all the debt -- in 1985. Back then, hyperinflation was the popular meme, since we'd just had a serious round of inflation. (Back then, due to lack of experience/perspective, that scared the hell out of me at the time).

That was 32 years ago. And here we are: same song, different verse.

So excuse me if I don't wet my pants every time you proclaim all the debt is unpayable, and use worlds like "oblivion".
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 14:52:00

OS, the debt is cumulative, and already too large for comfort. It may be $20T or more/less, probably more, when you count 2017-2020 funds already committed.

Generally speaking, the bigger the debt, the lower the value of the dollar. I don't want to get into a discussion of currency inflation because we beat that topic to death in prior threads, and it is yet another issue lost in partisan divide. Let me just say (being retired and on fixed income) I'd rather see the dollar deflating and interest rates up. Because the other side of that coin isn't working in spite of the heartfelt Urban and Lefty political beliefs. The government is not your Nanny, it needs to be run as a business, the debt needs to be paid down, and these things are more important than anything on the social issue side, in fact more important than everything except national defense.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby creedoninmo » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 20:17:36

If the FED is selling treasuries, who is buying. It seems to me that I heard internet chatter recently that was saying the demand for treasuries was slacking. I can't imagine the Saudis are buying tons of treasuries these days. The thing I have noticed in recent times is that as they print more debt the yield on the treasuries falls, This is opposite to what one would think was logical, that as debt goes up it would get more expensive. Apparently, volume causes the yield to drop. I would like to see a break down of who in the world holds treasury debt.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby creedoninmo » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 20:22:49

Kaiserjeep said: " the government is not your Nanny, it needs to be run as a business, the debt needs to be paid down." you've got to be kidding. I hate to be the one cluing you in, but if the government was run properly we would be returning to 19th century technology.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby efarmer » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 21:02:46

Finally I think I know the answer for one of these threads. Facebook is replacing gasoline via Internet bandwidth like crazy. You look on your Facebook, Irene and Tom had steak at the chain joint for $40 bucks and got the squirts. Jimmy scored a taco deal and said they were fine until he had the night sweats and he said he laid off heavy metal music and can only stand to listen to Disco from the 70's and is searching for Bee Gee's stuff on vinyl. Aunt Loretta said she got a high colonic in Florida for $700 and watched 50 years of fast food shoot out and the dumpster blew up behind the clinic the next day from a methane blast. Cousin Joe said he was eating a monster 1/2 pound grillerburger from Bellyblaster and he chomped into scrubbing plastic beads from an exfoliating detergent factory by the feed lot in Kansas. Walt and Emma said they just celebrated their 40th wedding anniversay and that they have been sick of each other for 38 years, they have had a funeral plan for 10 years, but threaten to toast each other depending on who kicks first. So people read the Facebook thing and they decide to cook at home.
Young Jimmy says he found three packs of Ramen noodles and 2 cans of black beans, Jill comes out with four cans of mostly full spray cheese, and 3 cans of Vienna Sausages with one bloated to discard from the cupboard. It all gets mixed together, and they jump on Facebook and say Mama cooked us a meal from scratch last night and it was delish. Jimmy farts through another day driving the airport shuttle and 7 airline passenger post to Facebook they have never gotten airsick on the shuttle bus versus the bird itself before now.

Finally, Jimmy gets well and posts on Facebook that he will never eat the chain food stuff in the strip malls again, and says Mama is the greatest cook on the planet, Old Walt says the same, home cooking has stopped his issue with lockjaw from fast food. Home cooking is the deal. Immediately 400 people start seeing if you can get home cooking on Amazon, and where the deals are.

Facebook then runs click bait about a guy who bought a house and found bottle canning stuff from the 1960's that was still edible, he says his penis is getting with it again and his wife is insatiable, and it is all because the stuff was put up before The Apollo Moon Shot wrecked all the home canned stuff on the planet by shooting up though the Van Allen Belts, plus all the stuff they don't talk about.

Next, a Millenial guy says that the entire system is rigged, it is all about getting him out of Mom's basement, and out in the austere and uncaring world. He laments that one of the finest gamer's on the planet is being marched out to get his hands into biological waste in some B.S. place to feed people crap versus the brand name corn chips he lives on in conjunction with high end mineral water.

When Facebook life is so cool and ideal, why would any sane person choose to grovel in the real world?
My point? If you don't think you are in the real world anymore, which one are you in?
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 16 Aug 2017, 01:19:44

When Facebook life is so cool and ideal, why would any sane person choose to grovel in the real world?
My point? If you don't think you are in the real world anymore, which one are you in?


You are in the one where Grand Ma actually turns out to be a bot that is selling adult diapers! You didn't even notice, did you?
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby marmico » Wed 16 Aug 2017, 04:19:29

I would like to see a break down of who in the world holds treasury debt.


http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.c ... ZQNGelK2M8

Foreign ownership of treasury securities (TIC data)

http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby creedoninmo » Wed 16 Aug 2017, 09:06:50

Thanks for the chart Marmico: a further internet search shows that the FED has been talking about selling off treasuries for several years. I think it is just talk.
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