Subjectivist wrote:How brave to give themselves a 15 year window of possibly correct years.
MD wrote:"Peak Oil" is reduction in demand. Go with the flow on that point, and don't get caught up in arguing that it is a supply problem. There will always be supplies to meet market demand.
If you reel back at that statement, stop and study basic supply/demand economics.
Plantagenet wrote:MD wrote:"Peak Oil" is reduction in demand.
I agree peak oil could come about through reduction of demand.
However, I'm skeptical that demand for oil will actually peak between 2025-40 given that world populations continue to grow and third world countries like China and India are seeing increasing demand for for oil as more and more of their huge populations become wealthier and want cars and other trappings of an affluent lifestyle.
These factors are currently driving a significant increase in the global demand for oil.
oil-demand-growing-at-fastest-pace-in-five-years-says-iea
KaiserJeep wrote:The problem with every last economic prediction ever made and every economic model ever created, is that none are able to account for the variable of human behavior. Thus they are all useless for planning purposes.
ralfy wrote:The world can't afford high prices. Unfortunately, oil companies need higher prices because their production costs have gone up, and that's due to peak oil. Finally, the same problem can be seen for copper and other commodities, which can be seen in light of diminishing returns. Those lead to limits to growth, with pollution, population growth, middle class demands, and other factors creating more problems.
The implication is that the effects of peak oil take place even before production peaks or even drops.
M_B_S wrote:https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/129260/bp-predicts-peak-oil-will-hit-2025-2040/
Broad consensus has suggested “peak oil” the peak oil window will be between the years of 2025 and 2040.
MD wrote:"Peak Oil" is reduction in demand.
MD wrote:My statement is not a denial of peak oil. Again, if you don't see that, stop again to think it through.
ralfy wrote:The world can't afford high prices.
ralfy wrote: Unfortunately, oil companies need higher prices because their production costs have gone up, and that's due to peak oil.
ralfy wrote:The implication is that the effects of peak oil take place even before production peaks or even drops.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:IMO, stretching the definition of "peak oil" to cover anything remotely related to a growth constraint essentially renders the term useless.
AdamB wrote:Outcast_Searcher wrote:IMO, stretching the definition of "peak oil" to cover anything remotely related to a growth constraint essentially renders the term useless.
That is one horse that has already left the barn OS.
MD wrote:AdamB wrote:Outcast_Searcher wrote:IMO, stretching the definition of "peak oil" to cover anything remotely related to a growth constraint essentially renders the term useless.
That is one horse that has already left the barn OS.
Yes. Many years ago. The term itself died with the singularly defined resource curve that brought about its birth.
That fact, however, does not make the discussion of its redefinition useless.
MD wrote:The tag line "exploring hydrocarbon depletion" remains relevant. Hydrocarbon depletion in all its forms remains highly relevant, and the fact that early "peak oilers" latched onto one facet of the puzzle, thus defining the term in that context, is just normal to human nature.
MD wrote:So redefine the term, abandon it, or ignore semantics entirely and talk about what's important (in plain language), and skip the endless wrangling over made up terms.
KaiserJeep wrote:...
Here's a prediction for you: When the cost less taxes is $100/g, we will still be pumping oil, and there will still be some to pump. The slope of the declining half of the peak oil curve is itself an interesting discussion, and as with all economic predictions, the biggest variable is human behavior.
AdamB wrote:So I'm not sure you meant the early peak oilers, but more the early claimants of the modern era.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:ralfy wrote:The world can't afford high prices. Unfortunately, oil companies need higher prices because their production costs have gone up, and that's due to peak oil. Finally, the same problem can be seen for copper and other commodities, which can be seen in light of diminishing returns. Those lead to limits to growth, with pollution, population growth, middle class demands, and other factors creating more problems.
The implication is that the effects of peak oil take place even before production peaks or even drops.
With respect, I think you're conflating "peak oil" with global carrying capacity, or limits of BAU growth.
IMO, stretching the definition of "peak oil" to cover anything remotely related to a growth constraint essentially renders the term useless.
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