Updated graph with data through June:
any view as to whether production will be controlled by an economic limit (opex exceeds net free cashflow) or a production below line pressure?
Ultimate recovery obviously is related.
Updated graph with data through June:
An apparent sharp drop in projected Alaska oil output in the state's most recent production forecast is due more to a change in forecast methodology than underperformance of wells and fields, officials at the state Division of Oil and Gas said.
Under the new forecast released Dec. 14, Alaska will produce an average of 490,300 barrels per day in the current fiscal year instead of the 507,100 barrels per day estimated in the most recent previous estimate made last spring.
The estimates also reduced expected output for next year, in fiscal year 2018, the 12-month period beginning July 1, from an average of 488,800 barrels per day to 455,600 in the new estimate.
...
State Revenue Commissioner Randall Hoffbeck said the state expects the production decline will level out in future years because of new projects even if they are not included in the forecast.
"We are optimistic about several large developments that are not included in the forecast, including the Nanushuk discovery by Armstrong Oil and Gas and a discovery at Smith Bay by Caelus Energy," Hoffbeck said. If these projects proceed they could add 350,000 barrels per day, but their development will take several years.
However, for now the Department of Revenue's long-term forecast is for North Slope production to decline to 331,000 barrels per day by 2026, a volume that is near levels that could put the trans-Alaska pipeline at risk.
BP held Prudhoe Bay field production virtually flat in 2016, a sharp improvement over annual declines averaging 4 percent to 6 percent in years past, company officials said in an interview.
Prudhoe is the largest field on Alaska’s North Slope and the leveling of its production was a major factor helping Alyeska Pipeline Service Co. actually boost throughput in the Trans Alaska Pipeline System by 1.85 percent last year, the first increase in decades for TAPS.
Alyeska confirmed Jan. 9 that total Slope production ticked up to an average of 517,868 barrels per day, up from an average of 508,446 barrels per day in 2015.
Prudhoe Bay’s production for 2016 was slightly down but by less than 1 percent. The field averaged 280,700 barrels per day last year compared with 281,800 barrels per day the prior year. Prudhoe produces about half of the oil moving through TAPS.
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State Oil and Gas Division Director Chantal Walsh credited the Slope production performance to a number of factors including better-than-expected output of ConocoPhillips-operated CD-5, a new production site near the Alpine field, production from Drill Site 2S in Kuparuk, also by ConocoPhillips, and a coiled-tubing drilling program in Milne Point by Hilcorp Alaska.
vtsnowedin wrote:It will be interesting to see what the Trump administration has for an effect on Alaskan production rates. Anybody have any insight as to what is possible if the oil companies are given free reign?
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
PeakOiler wrote:<<snip>>
Then in the next 8-9 years, I suspect the ANWR will finally get opened to drilling, especially if the Republicans get the Presidency next election and also have the majority in Congress.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
That well was the KIC-1, drilled in the winter of '85-'86 by Chevron with BP as a partner. It remains a tight hole, and remarkably little info has leaked out. That being said, it is almost certain that it was a dry hole. There are several reason I say that.yportne wrote:Many years ago a single well was drilled in ANWR. Was it a dry hole? http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0 ... text6.html
There has been a good deal more activity than Rockman describes, not only in the Copper River Basin, but also the Nenana Basin and the Yukon Flats basin. While major oil companies were active years ago in these basins, most of the recent activity has been by Alaska native corporations. We don't for the most part have tribes and reservations in Alaska. Instead, the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act established regional native corporations. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Native_Claims_Settlement_ActROCKMAN wrote:T - I'm not familiar but found this:
"The Copper River basin sits in a lowland area due north of the Gulf of Alaska and bounded by the Alaska Range, the Wrangell Mountains and the Chugach Mountains. The geology of the basin bears many similarities to that of the Cook Inlet basin.......
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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