ROCKMAN wrote:
Lore - You're correct. But hasn't that been what the Rockman, westexas, Art B and a few others been preaching for years. But, again, think about it: what would life had been like for the US consumer had the shale plays not existed and had not been developed? Remember despite what some logic starved folks thinks the high cost of shale production didn't cause the oil price to increase. A very simple question: where would oil prices be today if you subtracted today's shale production? Or conversely, how damaged would the economy be today had prices jumped to $150/bbl? Perhaps we would have had a repeat of the 80's.
Folks need to remember regardless of the damage inflicted on the oil patch and its investors the US consumers made out much better then had the shales not existed.
NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. government on Tuesday forecast domestic crude production will rise even more than expected a year ago, undeterred by the worst price rout since the financial crisis.
U.S. crude oil production will peak at 10.6 million barrels per day in 2020, a million barrels more than the high forecast a year earlier, according to the annual energy outlook by the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S. Energy Department.
Crude production will then moderate to 9.4 million bpd in 2040, 26 percent more than expected a year ago, the agency said.
The reference case in the report forecasts Brent prices of $56 a barrel in 2015, rising to about $91 a barrel in 2025, $10 a barrel less than levels expected a year ago. The report uses the 2013 value of the dollar as its measure.
Despite lower prices, higher production will result mainly from increased onshore oil output, predominantly from shale formations, the agency said.
[...]
ROCKMAN wrote:anarky - Not necessarily collapse per se. All plays come to an end once most the viable locations are drilled. Back to my old story about the horizontally drill carbonate shale, the Austin Chalk. It was the hottest oil play on the planet in to 90's when oil prices were lower then they are today even when adjusted for inflation. When oil got up to $100 there was a small uptick in AC drilling in Texas but nothing like the 90's boom. So why with oil price 3X higher didn't the AC boom again? Easy...it was eventually drilled up for the most part. IOW it doesn't matter how high oil prices get: if the great majority of the potential locations have been drilled then there's very few places left to poke a hole. The Eagle Ford and Bakken plays will eventually wither regardless of the prices of oil. The only effect of that price is the time span.
I believe to popular word is these parts is "finite". LOL
if the great majority of the potential locations have been drilled then there's very few places left to poke a hole. The Eagle Ford and Bakken plays will eventually wither regardless of the prices of oil. The only effect of that price is the time span.
OTOH a lot of infield wells that would have drilled at $100/bbl won't get drilled at $55/bbl.
ROCKMAN wrote:Looker - As mentioned before one cannot forecast production without accuraterly forecasting a number of other factors, the most crtcrtityical one being the oil price. I've dug deep a number of times and found those EIA details yet. Maybe someone here has.
Rockman wrote:But it doesn't make any difference because what ever it does forecast to 2040 is wrong...absolutely wrong. Easy enough to believe since NO ONE has ever forecast oil prices anywhere close to even roughly accurate over that period of time...NO ONE!
Rockman wrote:If one can't beleive any such price forecast how could they believe a production forecast in 10 years let alone 23 years?
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