onlooker wrote:Well it looks like this prolonged low price of oil is really hurting the major oil producing countries like KSA, Venezuela and Russia. One thing curious is that they did not mention USA who I think also qualifies based on how the Fracking/Shale companies have been hurting some going out of business. Here is article. http://thedailycoin.org/?p=63710
ennui2 wrote:I'd say if we were to have a crash, it would be precipitated by the bubble bursting in tech. It's really the tech sector that is making most of the money these days, and much of the valuation is just as phantom as it was back in the dot com boom. The difference is that tech companies are avoiding IPOs. It's mostly private VC money funding these unicorns. This will limit the collateral damage if they collapse.
People have been arguing about federal deficit Armageddon for ages and nobody really knows what the endgame is on that, and as long as other countries like Greece are defaulting, the US looks like a pretty safe bet.
As for fracking, there's more than enough evidence to suggest that there's enough recoverable oil left to fuel a 2nd wave of fracking after the frackers get wiped out and prices creep back to where it's more profitable to drill again.
ennui2 wrote:People always talk about how oil are energy slaves. Well, tech is too. Robots aren't what displaces workers. Online services do. For instance, for my daughter's doctor's appointment I got a robocall with a synthetic voice. After that the secretary called, but she didn't really have to. Since so much of customer service is a multiple-choice affair, we're fast proceeding beyond Indian call-centers to THX-1138 land.
And in the past, if you wanted to make and sell something, like in the 1800s, before mass production, you used your hands. You grew it or you were a blacksmith or a craftsman. But now we've moved beyond even mass production and if you make something digital (like a mobile game) then it is (theoretically) a cash-machine. You put it online and the entire transaction is electronic.
The best kind of business to be in is a middle-man. ITunes is one, as is Valve Steam. Valve used to make games, now they don't need to. They can just handle the transactions between game publishers and the public. Same deal with Amazon with eCommerce and fulfillment. And how did Elon Musk make his fortune? From a pseudo-bank/credit-card processor (PayPal) that took a cut on every transaction.
I'm not listing these things out to rant, but this is the way economics works these days. Entrepreneurs chases these segments because they hold the promise of the highest ROI for the lowest labor costs.
And a lot of these kinds of businesses tend to settle into monopolies. Facebook, Amazon, Google, eBay, PayPal, Apple. There's very little genuine competition in each space.
ROCKMAN wrote:First year post-PO? I can make two very reasonable models for those 12 months. One would have oil selling for $120/bbl and the other running oil at $30/bbl. Again easily proven since we just ran through similar variations in a short amount of time. IOW the date of global PO will have little or no bearing on the price of oil during the year following that date. Politically the world might be relatively calm or there could be mass disruptions. The global economy might just skip along OK that first year or it may be nose diving into the toilet.
We've just witnessed a variety of factors that have proven themselves to be much more impactful then some date on a calendar could ever prove itself to be.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada wrote:However once we have passed geologic world peak and given that depletion never ceases I doubt substitution will be able to be built fast enough, and that is why people call me a doomer.
ROCK wrote:PO is the max amount of oil actually produced.
ennui2 wrote:Considering that Cuba still has tons of 1950s style vehicles, if we get to the point where people can't afford the latest and greatest tablet or smart phone they can try to make do with current tech for longer than they do at present. That's already happening with desktop PCs.
Pops wrote:I've decided thinking rigidly about a geological limit to an economic process is wrongheaded and the reason my guesses are off.
onlooker wrote:Adam, technically your right with regards to what your saying. However, how does any of that change the basic and fundamental energy equations inherent with the Oil to be recovered and produced now and into the future?
onlooker wrote:
What the Hills Group is alleging based on their expert extensive analysis is that we have already reached the point and passed it when one unit of energy needed to recover, produce and distribute Oil and all other concomitant ancillary yet necessary energy related activity for the consumption and use of energy derived from Oil no longer yields that same one unit of energy but less.
onlooker wrote:Or to simplify the Oil Industry now is taking energy/money from the General Economy to finance itself energetically/economically. Net Energy is now in the negative.
But we can
onlooker wrote:But we can
Because of lending
onlooker wrote:Yeah, I know the best he can come up with is we got our predictions wrong 10 years ago. I guess he likes to live in the past.
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