"The etpers underestimate this mining of the ocean seabed with automated vehicles to get GAS. BW Hill doesn't even recognize natural gas at all." We don't take into consideration Santa Clause, and Fairies either! Methane hydrate has been a dream for over 50 years, and there still is not one operating production platform working. It is a lot like fusion, "just hand us a few more $billion and we promise in 10 years there will be fusion". Which is what they have been saying every 10 years for the past 40. I think most people are getting pretty tired of that story line. Human credulity can only be stretched so far! Even a dog is smart enough to eventually figure out that it is being bullshitted. Some dogs are apparently smarter than some people!
Natural Gas is not considered because it is a "gas", and 99% of the mobile power system on this planet run on liquid hydrocarbons. Methane (CH4) is a very low energy density fuel. It is difficult, and costly to handle, and does not work very well as a major source of energy away from the pipe line systems that supply it. It is totally a question of energy delivery capability, and the cost is a function of that capability. It is not the other way around.
It would take an additional 200 trillion cubic feet of NG to replace the oil now being used. That is 2.3 times the total present world production; not taking into consideration that NG delivers 14% less useable energy per gross BTU than oil. If there were even the slightest possibility that NG could replace enough of the energy being lost from petroleum to keep our civilization from collapsing we would take a serious look at it. There isn't. No one is going to be stumbling across an extra 400 trillion cubic feet of NG per year in the near future.
NG and methane hydrates are pipe dreams, just ask any old dog.
As far as the price of crude is concerned the Etp Model tracked the price between 1960 and 2012 with an average margin of error of 4.4%. A track record that is orders of magnitude better than any other estimates that have been provided.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_007.htmThat 54 year trend broke in 2012 as the result of the system reaching a thermodynamic tipping point. We anticipated it happening from the energy equations, and put up this page in September of 2014:
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htmOnce it is realized that petroleum production is an energy production process, and not an exercise in filling up containers with black goo it all becomes readily obvious. But, some old dog is likely to figure that out before some people?
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/