[stu]

Looks like these will be our "lifelines" within the next 5 years then.


From the EIA

A consortium of companies, led by BG, Ruhrgas, and Distrigas, operates the Interconnector pipeline between Bacton, England and Zeebrugge, Belgium. The 145-mile Interconnector came on-stream in 1998, and its current export capacity from the UK is 1.9 Bcf/d. The Interconnector can also operate in "import mode," instead sending 800 Mmcf/d to the UK from the Continent.

In 2003, the UK and Norway finalized the necessary political conditions for construction of the Britpipe linking Norway's Ormen Lange natural gas field to Easington, England. The 750-mile Britpipe would be the longest sub sea pipeline in the world, with an initial capacity of 1.9 Bcf/d and planned maximum capacity of 2.9 Bcf/y. Both counties expect construction on Britpipe to finish by 2007.

Gasunie plans to build a 146-mile gas pipeline linking Balgzand, the Netherlands to Bacton, England. Initial construction on the Balgzad-Bacton Line (BBL) began in October 2004, with completion of the project expected by the end of 2006. According to Gasunie, the BBL will have an initial capacity of 1.1 Bcf/d, with a maximum capacity of 1.7 Bcf/d.

In 2004, the Russian government approved construction of the 1,100-mile North European Gas (NEG) pipeline linking Vyborg, Russia with Greiswald, Germany and, ultimately, the east coast of the UK. Gazprom has stated that NEG could come on-stream by 2010 with a maximum capacity of 2.9 Bcf/d. Despite the approval of the Russian government, the NEG is still in the early planning stages, and some analysts have raised questions about the economic feasibility of the project.

The Interconnector pipe from Belgium, one pipeline from Norway, one from Holland and another from Germany.

[clv101]

I have a problem with the logic that building a pipeline capable of carrying say 2bcf/d is the same as guaranteeing future supply of 2bcf/d at reasonable prices. The two are NOT the same thing.

[Permanently_Baffled]

http://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/ ... laffanref/

Plus 30bcm (32% of current consumption) from LNG Stu

The LNG will be exported to a dedicated receiving terminal currently being constructed at South Hook Terminal in Milford Haven, West Wales, UK. Gas delivery is scheduled to start by the winter of 2007-08. The project will process 30 billion m³ of gas per annum and will produce 15.8mtpa of LNG, 6 MMTA of condensates and 1.7 MMTA of propane/butane.

The ships will be the largest in the world at 210,000 cm(LNG) * 620 = 130,200,000 cm per ship.

So 30bcm/130.2m = 230 ships per annum. Obviously you build stocks in the summer and deplete in the winter etc etc

Three South Korean shipyards were commissioned to build eight state-of-the-art tankers that will be 50% larger than conventional LNG ships. Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering will produce four 210,000m³ tankers at a cost of around $875 million, while Hyundai Heavy Industries and Samsung Heavy Industries took orders estimated at $450 million to build two vessels each.

First deliveries are the winter of 2007/08

Gas delivery is scheduled to start by the winter of 2007-08. The project will process 30 billion m³ of gas per annum and will produce 15.8mtpa of LNG, 6 MMTA of condensates and 1.7 MMTA of propane/butane.

Lets hope we have an economic system in the future to pay for it !

PB

[Permanently_Baffled]

I have a problem with the logic that building a pipeline capable of carrying say 2bcf/d is the same as guaranteeing future supply of 2bcf/d at reasonable prices. The two are NOT the same thing.

No thats true, but then gas for export has to be priced to sell (after all these countries rely on the revenue from these exports). If we cannot afford any as the 4th largest economy, who else is "affording" the price of this gas?

PB

[Madpaddy]

clv101 wrote;

While we're talking about the UK gas situation it's worth sparing a though for the poor Irish. They are more dependent on gas than the UK with no nuclear and get most of their gas from the UK! If the UK's in trouble gas with gas supplies, the Irish are in even worse shape.

http://www.worldoil.com/magazine/MAGAZI ... R=Apr-2001

Corrib field development boosts Irish hopes. Enterprise Oil approved a £400-million ($580-million) development of Corrib gas field - the first offshore development in Ireland in two decades. Corrib has reserves of around 1 Tcf, equivalent to about 170 million bbl of oil. The firm's decision is exciting for Ireland, because a gas shortage is predicted for the country within the next few years, as its gas demand rises. The situation is compounded by the fact that Kinsale - the country's primary offshore field - has a limited production life. Enterprise Energy Ireland's Managing Director, Brian O'Cathain, said that first gas from Corrib is expected by summer 2003. This is the second field that this UK-based independent has operated outside of the North Sea.

This will help keep the wolf from the door for a while, but yeah we are in dire straits here due to our reliance on fossil fuels. This is Colin Campbells main concern also. Lucky we have a mild climate (until the gulf stream stops at least).

[stu]

Using the estimates from the DOE website, I've estimated the potentially how much we will import from abroad by the end of the decade and how much it will cover the shortfall from the North Sea.

The Interconnector Pipe from Zeebrugge to Bacton can import 0.8 bcf/d. Over the space of a year that is 292 bcf.

The pipeline from the Ormen Lange field in Norway is expected to be finished by 2007 with an initial transfer rate of 1.9 bcf/d with hopes to get a maximum capacity of 2.9 bcf/d. Initially the transfer rate will be 694 bcf/y rising to just over 1 tcf/y if the pipeline reaches maximum capacity.

The pipeline from the Netherlands is expected to have a maximum capacity of 1.7 bcf/d. This equals a rate of 621 bcf/y

The pipeline from Germany is expected to hold a maximum capacity of 2.9 bcf/d which is just over 1 tcf/y. However this pipeline is not guaranteed.

The LNG terminal in Kent will take in 1.5 bcf/d. This equals 548 bcf/y.

The LNG terminal in Wales will take in 2.1 bcf/d by 2009. This is 767 bcf/y.

Therefore the total amount of LNG coming into the country by the end of the decade is estimated to be just over 1.3 tcf/y.

The total amount of gas coming in through pipelines (if we discount the German pipeline) is just over 1.8 tcf/y giving us an estimated total of over 3.1 tcf/y of natural gas coming from abroad.

Given the current decline and consumption rates then it looks as if everything will be allright in 2010. However that of course depends on a number of factors e.g supply disruptions, producer declines etc.

[julianj]

Below is the link to the Royal Bank Of Scotland May report which had the 17.5% figure. Stu, you will want to take a look at this.

Please write your conclusions in large crayon for the innumerates like me who can barely do arithmetic



RBS research report Pdf file

[stu]

Bad luck Julian.

Link does not work.

[Permanently_Baffled]

http://business.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=753602005

While the long-term trend remains one of declining output, the history of North Sea energy production suggests there could be some form of surge in production over the next few years

which, in 2002, suggested there was an untapped supply of oil under the North Sea of more than 42 billion barrels

Blimey and the UK only uses 0.7 billion per year -- where did they get this mindlessly optimistic figure from?

Mr Wood sees a number of reasons for the slowdown in production - not linked to supply but because companies are restrained by the number of skilled individuals and resources available.

"Everyone is competing for the same labour, the same oil rigs and the same technology," RBS's chief economist argues.

Is he implying that production is down because we havent the rigs and personnel rather than a shortage of new fields or new wells?

Independent firms working in the North Sea must become more broadly focused if the region's 25 to 30 billion barrels-worth of estimated reserves are to be tapped successfully.

Untapped reserves of 25 - 30 billion , the figures have changed already! But at least its been independently varified?

If this number is right , then assuming no decline rate the north sea would last 30/0.7 billion = 42 Years. But of course production follows a bell shape so it could be longer wahoooo (although we would have to do with less oil per year as production falls...)

Is the report credible then?

PB

[stu]

Despite the falling output, a trend which, in the long term, is unlikely to be reversed, Mr Wood believes things are on the whole pretty encouraging.

"The next two to three years look like they will be an exciting time for the industry," he enthuses.

That makes no sense whatsoever.

When I was in Edinburgh I heard stories about North Sea oil wells that had been abandoned even though they were at least only 30% depleted. Maybe the economic situation is ripe for them to extract whatever oil is left that they couldn't before.

[julianj]

Whoops, not just innumerate, but a web incompetent too!

Here's a link that should work. It's to the June Report, which has slightly less worrying declines.

Link

I've stuck it in so you can copy and paste.

BTW, my fellow peakers, you'll love this quote from it:

The next two-three years look like they will be an exciting time for the industry.

[stu]

Julian.

Heres the BP statisitical report about natural gas decline.

UK natural gas production

It seems very strange for one side to say there is a 17.5% decrease whereas some say 6.7%. Someone has got their figures seriously wrong. From what I know BP rely on the figures released by the companies so that seems pretty credible to me.

[stu]

Here's some useful links about the companies who run each of the pipeline and LNG projects.

The Interconnector pipeline from Belgium.

The Interconnector gas pipeline provides a strategic bi-directional link between the UK and Continental European energy markets.
Interconnector services allow customers to meet the physical demands for natural gas and reach new markets by trading between the two hubs.

The Frigg gas pipeline from Norway which is currently operational and which I missed out on my assessment.

The proposed Britpipe project from Norway which will account for 20% of Britains gas needs.

The project is an integrated gas production and importation scheme that includes the subsea development of the Ormen Lange gas field (100km off the coast of mid-Norway) combined with an onshore gas processing plant and a 1,200km gas import pipeline to a receiving terminal at Easington, UK. The pipeline is routed via the Sleipner nodal platform, thus offering the flexibility of importing Ormen Lange gas to mainland Europe as well as importing gas production from other gas fields into the UK eventually supplying some 21 bcm p.a.

The BBL (Balgzand Bacton Line) from Holland

BBL company is working on a pipeline that will link the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. This pipeline has been given the name BBL (Balgzand Bacton Line) and will be built by
Gasunie Technology & Assets under the authority of BBL Company. BBL Company is a partnership of three subsidiaries of Gasunie Technology & Assets, E.ON Ruhrgas and Fluxys. The gas flow direction is from the Netherlands to the UK.

Here's a link to the proposed NEG (North European Gas) pipeline

A PDF document on the expansion of the Isle of Grain LNG terminal.

A PDF document about the construction of the LNG terminals at Milford Haven.

[julianj]

I do find it a bit strange that we are told that the North Sea is a model of transparency, then get such differing figures.

RBS says in their June Report:

(which puts gas depletion at 16%)

MY bold

Notes to Editors: Gas prices are provisional and sourced from DTI’s Quarterly Energy Prices. Oil & Gas output figures are provided by the operating companies. All other figures from Datastream. Gas production figures from Shell estimated using average production movements for the past 12 months.

So it would seem that BP and RBS are both going to the same source and getting let us say, somewhat variable figures.

PS Stu, you didn't get any proper Norwegian Frigging then, you poor sod

[stu]

Hmmmm.

I might investigate this a bit more and try and find out why these figures are so different.

Just for the record. The Frigg pipeline transports 33 mcm/d.

Link

This is equivalent to just under 1.2 bcf/d. Which works out at 439 bcf/y. This makes a revised estimate of 3.5 tcf/y in 2010, not including the depleting UK reserves and discounting the possibility of the pipeline from Germany. All of the above however is speculation and will make the next few years very interesting.

[stu]

Ex-Ships Pilots Warn on Plans for Port

Eight retired ships' pilots have expressed serious safety concerns about plans to turn Milford Haven into the world's biggest importer of liquefied natural gas.

Yesterday the pilots released a statement they have made for use by campaigners, whose application for a judicial review of the decision to approve the pounds 600m scheme will be considered by the High Court later this month.