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Climate Refugees Pt. 2

Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 05 May 2016, 09:53:56

The economic side of the equation will get more problematic with time as peak oil and other factors weaken the economy. Another problem is this http://www.techtimes.com/articles/10962 ... al-why.htm. When about one fifth of your population does not even believe in GW, then people and their votes are likely to be an obstacle. In fact, the whole dichotomy of GW with peak oil is in opposition to some degree. Cutting fossil fuels pretty much means cutting economic vitality, yet that is presumably the best thing we can do to minimize future chaos and havoc. The signs despite the original post continue to be that society at least in the US continues to side with economic vitality rather than confronting the issue of AGW.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby Lore » Thu 05 May 2016, 10:50:13

Sea levels are measured by a variety of methods that show close agreement - sediment cores, tidal gauges, satellite measurements. What they find is sea level rise has been steadily accelerating over the past century.
https://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-le ... ediate.htm

Image

Time for some SLR-101

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBs_K59K6GY
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 05 May 2016, 10:51:12

Yes, I am firmly as everyone know a AGW proponent but Pstarr is right. So far, no really substantial mitigation efforts of any kind are happening anywhere in the world that I am aware of.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby Lore » Thu 05 May 2016, 11:02:54

This is a case of whistling past the graveyard again. SLR is going to express itself logically in those inhabited coastal areas that are the lowest lying. Migration is already happening in places like Bangladesh. We just don't hear about it much on the nightly news.

Borrowed Time on Disappearing Land
Facing Rising Seas, Bangladesh Confronts the Consequences of Climate Change

Bangladeshis have already started to move away from the lowest-lying villages in the river deltas of the Bay of Bengal, scientists in Bangladesh say. People move for many reasons, and urbanization is increasing across South Asia, but rising tides are a big factor. Dr. Rahman’s research group has made a rough estimate from small surveys that as many as 1.5 million of the five million slum inhabitants in Dhaka, the capital, moved from villages near the Bay of Bengal.

The slums that greet them in Dhaka are also built on low-lying land, making them almost as vulnerable to being inundated as the land villagers left behind.

Ms. Khatun and her neighbors have lived through deadly cyclones — a synonym here for hurricane — and have seen the salty rivers chew through villages and poison fields. Rising seas are increasingly intruding into rivers, turning fresh water brackish. Even routine flooding then leaves behind salt deposits that can render land barren.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/29/world ... .html?_r=0
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 05 May 2016, 11:14:15

Good find Lore, But this is a a response to an actual threat materializing. I am wondering though more about preemptive action in anticipation of future problems. If anyone could cite other examples of communities taking preemptive action, I am sure many of us would be interested.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Thu 05 May 2016, 11:50:35

rockdoc123 wrote:Actually one IS a total imbecile to believe that correlation proves causation.

Perhaps you could also point out that the number of teenage pregnancies has been steadily rising over this period....or the number of microbreweries has been steadily increasing....these are also observations that correlate with rising temperature. Hence increased friskiness of the teenage population or the need for a multitude of different varieties of Indian Pale Ale must be responsible for climate change. :roll:


Ok, I admit it is possible that increased consumption of IPA is causing the globe to get warmer.
But plain old common sense says to me that it is more probable that the increased CO2 in the atmosphere is the cause. Sometimes all you have to work with is perceived probabilities, to make a decision.
And I don't even like IPA's - more of a dark ale kind of person, myself. IPA lovers are bitter people.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 05 May 2016, 13:37:37

I haven’t bothered to follow the thread because, as I suspected, it would deteriorate into ideology battles and misapplication of fact.

Yes: sea level is rising at some rate and very likely due to the production of GHG.

And no: the folks in Terrebonne Ph are not climate change victims that should be relocated. They are coonasses that decided to build their community on land that has been slowly subsiding into the GOM for millions of years. This area wouldn’t be inhabitable in another 20 or 30 years let along by the century. And that would be true if there were zero SLR due to GHG production. Those folks built their community on mud flats. The identical mud flats can be found 40,000’ below that community today. The US govt (via NOAA) long ago documented that this area of SE La has the highest subsidence rate of any significant area IN THE ENTIRE WORLD. The idea of relocating those folks isn’t new…been discussed for many years. He problem NOAA identified for this entire region was a lack of appr4ciation for just the long term subsidence dynamic let alone global SLR. They’ve pointed out many projects that will ultimately fail in time because of subsidence. In fact, a number of previous projects have already been suspended.

If the US tax payers want to spend their money on relocating folks who KNOWINGLY built communities in areas that were subsiding and would eventually be claimed by the GOM that’s OK by me. But let’s not confuse building in areas that could never be maintained and the potential problems with global SLR caused by man’s activities.

This a problem I see from time to time: overreaching to prove climate change. Not too bad since the majority of the public never digs deep enough to discover the actual facts. But it does open an opening for an argument that detracts for the main supported facts of climate change.
Last edited by ROCKMAN on Thu 05 May 2016, 14:38:28, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 05 May 2016, 13:44:37

If the US tax payers want to spend their money on relocating folks who KNOWINGLY built communities in areas that were subsiding and would eventually be claimed by the GOM that’s OK by me. But let’s not confuse building in areas that could never be maintained and the potential problems with global SLR caused by man’s activities.

Good point Rock. I think we need to keep our facts straight. Like in the threads about the wars in the ME or the Immigration threads. Sometimes, causes are multi-dimensional and ascribing one cause may be erroneous or may be simplifying. As for the ideological battles Rock refers too, I agree that this topic should not be ideological it is purely about the stresses from global warming that may compel communities to react completely devoid of any subjective or biased interpretation.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 05 May 2016, 13:53:21

ol wrote:
no really substantial mitigation efforts of any kind are happening anywhere in the world that I am aware of.


Netherlands. But then they've been at this game for a good long while.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 05 May 2016, 13:53:47

Lore wrote:First of all, maybe we should explain to KJ what the difference is between a scientific theory and a hypothesis is?


Well, a HUD grant is neither one of those.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 05 May 2016, 14:08:07

dohboi wrote:ol wrote:
no really substantial mitigation efforts of any kind are happening anywhere in the world that I am aware of.


Netherlands. But then they've been at this game for a good long while.

Thanks Dohboi, yes they have had a sense of the threat for quite some time that is for sure. Plus unlike Bangladesh they have the resources to take concrete steps. Oh on a side note, I think this summer will keep us all talking about the weather.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 05 May 2016, 14:42:41

http://e360.yale.edu/feature/abrupt_sea ... tica/2990/

Abrupt Sea Level Rise Looms As Increasingly Realistic Threat

Last month in Greenland, more than a tenth of the ice sheet’s surface was melting in the unseasonably warm spring sun, smashing 2010’s record for a thaw so early in the year. In the Antarctic, warm water licking at the base of the continent’s western ice sheet is, in effect, dissolving the cork that holds back the flow of glaciers into the sea; ice is now seeping like wine from a toppled bottle...

The planet’s polar ice is melting fast, and recent satellite data, models, and fieldwork have left scientists sobered by the speed of the sea level rise we should expect over the coming decades. Although researchers have long projected that the planet’s biggest ice sheets and glaciers will wilt in the face of rising temperatures, estimates of the rate of that change keep going up...

Eric Rignot at the University of California, Irvine says that study underscores the possible speed of ice sheet melt and collapse.


“Once these processes start to kick in,” he says, “they’re very fast.”


...
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 05 May 2016, 14:47:07

Thanks looker. You might not have seen that last added note to my post about damaging one's credibility. Discuss climate change and SLR but for Dog's sake don't try to use S la where even the US govt says will be eventually be flooded out even with zero SLR.

Much more sense to point to NYC. OTOH I think that opens up the question of rising ground elevations due to the retreat of the glaciers. I'm not sure how NYC fits into that dynamic but there are well documented areas where the land is rebounding. And that includes much of the lands surrounding the North Sea.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 05 May 2016, 16:05:00

Rockman

you can get the tide gauge data from the Permanent mean sea level record. An interactive map is found at http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/map.html

To see the obvious influence of coastal subsidence due to sediment loading or ground water withdrawal you can look at some of the stations along the Gulf and East Coast that have rates of apparent sea level rise much higher than the global average from satellites. To see the affects of isostacy take a look at Alaska stations where apparent sea level has been continuously dropping due to isostatic response of the inboard crust near the subducting Pacific plate.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby Timo » Thu 05 May 2016, 16:25:55

I'll follow Rockman's cue to go ideological, and claim that we don't need to worry about SLR at all because President Trump will have BOTH the Mexicans AND the Canadians pay to build a 30' flood wall around the entire US. Alaska, too, just to keep Sarah safe from the Russian immigrants who cross over through the Bering Straight. Hawaii? Nope. That's not legitimately a US State. They're on their own. Trust Trump to make America isolated again.

On a more serious note, the resettling that's in the offing within the next two decades will begin a new era in American city planning, and the planning profession has no idea that this new era is on the way. Gov. Brown is poking fun at Gov. Scott for being in denial, while Florida is being set up to wash away completely. Granted, California may fall off into the Pacific, but that's not likely due to AGW. But, as goes Florida, so goes Louisiana, and large areas of southern Texas, as well. The entire Mississippi basin will rise to the level where the bayou simply becomes the Gulf of Mexico.

I don't vouch for the accuracy of this claim, but i do remember seeing a forecast of SLR actually forcing a reversal of the flow of the Mississippi River from south to north. If that happened (not that i expect it to), that would put the mangroves all the way up into Arkansas.

How many people live within an hours drive from the Gulf and Atlantic coasts? I can easily forecast that at least 25% of that population will be forced (not by the Government!) to relocate further inland in the not too distant future. Ibon is getting a head start on that. That relocation will put tremendous strains on states like Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, and Oklahoma. As the Gulf Coast empties out, cities further inland will get floods of climate refugees seeking new housing, and jobs, and the continuation of the American Dream, starting from scratch. Add to that the continuation of political refugees from nearly every other war torn country on the planet, and we do have our work cut out for us. Not pretty to look at.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 05 May 2016, 17:08:41

"Coonasses". Love it! :-D

One step up from "possumasses"? :badgrin:
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 05 May 2016, 19:53:54

rockdoc123 wrote:this is completely wrong. Any theory once it has had any doubt shed on it needs to be rejected and reworked. That is the basic tenant of scientific endeavours. You are completely wrong on this. I'm a scientist, something I know a bit about.

I'm a scientist too. A computer scientist, not a physical scientist.

Calling yourself a scientist doesn't allow you to twist the scientific method any way you want it to claim that AGW is an "invalid" theory -- any more than it allows the religious right to (validly) claim that Intelligent Design has a "scientific basis", but thanks for playing.

Were we rejecting/reworking the theory of gravity from Einstein's time to the recent successful measurement of gravitons? No, I don't think so.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 05 May 2016, 19:55:21

Rockdoc. If you are a scientist provide us some links to your published works or papers. At least to peer reviews of your work.
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