vtsnowedin wrote:So Canada reports 350 voyages in 2013? They have plenty of room to grow to catch the Panama canals 15,000 a year. Or even the Suez's 1350.
I answered your post yesterday but apparently the system ate it and refuses to burp it up. I think your Suez number is missing a 0 at the end, at 37 ships per day they would pass 13,500 which is close enough to reality for me.
So here is the short version, an old Panamax ship caries 5,000 TEU of containers and a New Panamax ship will be able to carry 13, 000 TEU of containers. The ship distance from say Shanghai to Rotterdam, Netherlands or NYC, USA is a minimum travel time of 21 days on a fast cargo ship and close to 40 days on an average cargo ship traveling at economic speed.
A double stack unit train using well cars can haul 420(ish) TEU per miles of length. Last year China did a test run with a unit train going from eastern China to Madrid Spain. Because the route is much straighter and trains can average a faster speed the trip took something like 8 days even though they changed rail gauge size at least once and possibly three times. For China shipping in Asia, Europe and possibly soon Africa is much more rapid and precise using rail cargo.
When you put 13,000 TEU on a container ship they arrive all together in a large port where the containers are sorted and distributed by road and rail, often to final destinations a considerable distance from the port. When they send the same TEU on a train from China the cargo system and distribution system are the same system, so it goes directly to the rail distribution facility where it is delivered to the end recipient by a short overland truck trip.
Meanwhile to take a large TEU cargo ship from say Shanghai to Rotterdam through the Arctic you cut the distance and travel time by 40 percent compared to the Suez rout, so I expect traffic their to grow even if nothing else changes. For shipping cargo the Russians charge escort fees because they require all ships on their side to travel under guidance from their ice breakers, but the fees are priced lower than Suez or Panama transit fees to encourage shippers to use their services.