First, despite a substantial price premium (about $5000) over equivalent conventional vehicles, industry insiders widely agree that the market leaders, Toyota and Honda, are at best realizing a near-zero marginal profit on every hybrid vehicle they produce. However, this price premium doesn’t pay for itself in increased fuel economy, especially since most owners report far lower fuel economy than EPA estimates
Second, long term maintenance costs are sure to be higher than equivalent conventional vehicles. Besides the limited lifetime of the battery packs, the massive increase in the complexity of these vehicles just means there’s more to go wrong. Long term owners are sure to find that, just when they’ve saved enough on fuel to recover their initial investment, they start getting hit with 4-figure repair bills.
The first two points have not been lost on the general consumer. Which brings us to the third: rather than a massive portion of the overall market, J.D. Power and Assoc. predicts that hybrid sales will top-out at only about 3%. At that rate, it is doubtful that Toyota and Honda, to say nothing of later entrants into the marketplace, will never achieve profitability with hybrids. And, free of government subsidies or mandates, it’s unlikely production will continue.
Aaron wrote:First, despite a substantial price premium (about $5000) over equivalent conventional vehicles, industry insiders widely agree that the market leaders, Toyota and Honda, are at best realizing a near-zero marginal profit on every hybrid vehicle they produce. However, this price premium doesn’t pay for itself in increased fuel economy, especially since most owners report far lower fuel economy than EPA estimates
Second, long term maintenance costs are sure to be higher than equivalent conventional vehicles. Besides the limited lifetime of the battery packs, the massive increase in the complexity of these vehicles just means there’s more to go wrong. Long term owners are sure to find that, just when they’ve saved enough on fuel to recover their initial investment, they start getting hit with 4-figure repair bills.
The first two points have not been lost on the general consumer. Which brings us to the third: rather than a massive portion of the overall market, J.D. Power and Assoc. predicts that hybrid sales will top-out at only about 3%. At that rate, it is doubtful that Toyota and Honda, to say nothing of later entrants into the marketplace, will never achieve profitability with hybrids. And, free of government subsidies or mandates, it’s unlikely production will continue.
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DoctorDoom wrote:Another thing to consider is the possibility of rationing. People seem to think "so what if the price goes up I can afford to pay" (and, unspoken but implicit, outbid the Chinese and Indians for the world's remaining oil). Beyond a certain point the government won't be willing to let the pricing system ration dwindling petroleum supplies, and will step in with price controls to protect "those that can least afford it". Price controls would have to be accompanied by WW2-style rationing. At that point people will be very glad they have a high-mileage vehicle - their vehicle's mileage will determine how far they can go on their monthly ration.
Devil wrote:Why do we have to have the same thread subjects over and over again? As site administrator you darn well know this has been discussed several times before now. You are perpetrating an administrative sin. I'm getting fed up with you guys with nothing new to say and others believing that the size of their posts makes what they say more likely. Can we please have more facts and less bullshit, please?
gnm wrote:Too true - less driving will be the save.... And to think around here they are spending hundreds of millions on upgrading the freeway system... And not even a mention of light rail or any such thing...
-G
gnm wrote:In short I think they are overpriced feel-good greenie toyz..
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