The swedish department of finance has just published their yearly "Long term survey extending to 2060". Here are some extracts from it.
http://www.regeringen.se/contentassets/ ... betankande"The purpose of the Long-Term Survey of the Swedish Economy is
to provide a basis for economic policy and generate discussion on
formulation of policy. It is also to provide a coherent picture of
long term economic development."
"Until 2060 the Survey's scenario shows that material wealth in terms of GDP per capita will more than double, population will increase to almost 13 million
people and average life expectancy is expected to increase "
"Productivity growth for the entire economy is expected to
increase by about 1.7 per cent per year on average to 2060. "
"A major threat to this Swedish
strength is the fall in learning outcomes among school pupils that
has been taking place over a long period. The increased spread in
pupil performance also risks making distribution of knowledge
more uneven."
" From an international perspective Sweden has high quality
natural capital. Environmental and climate policy are mainly
focused on long-term administration of natural capital. However,
formulation of environmental policy is in part ineffective. This
includes poorer fulfilment of both environmental objectives and
other objectives, and unnecessary economic costs. "
"Change in future labour demand may to a considerable degree be
expected to be dependent on technological development. It has
been suggested that more than half the employees on the Swedish
labour market could be replaced by digital technology in the next
two decades. "
And here's the catch:
"In view of the uncertainty about specific future circumstances that
follows from the long-term perspective the Survey has decided not
to make any detailed policy proposals. "
This is basically BAU, except that it's hard to tell about the future - wich in a way also is BAU. There is not much worrying about what the future might bring when it comes to climate, energi or demografics.
Nature should be allowed to kill us all if we don’t fit into our local eco-system.