ennui2 wrote:That's basically the role of science-fiction, to explore the impact of technology on humanity. Despite the lack of flying cars and warp-drive, we are in the futuristic realm of science-fiction in which lots of things that were once simply theoretical fodder for predictions of either utopia or dystopia are now being tested out in reality. As they say, we live in interesting times.
Revi wrote:The problem is that the EROEI just doesn't make it from 2020 on
I can see the edge of the cliff.
I think we are on the verge of Ugo Bardi's Seneca Cliff.
Revi wrote:The problem is that oil can't be recovered economically with this kind of price.
Pops wrote:Revi wrote:The problem is that oil can't be recovered economically with this kind of price.
Maybe we can't produce 100-120mmb/d at this price but we can produce somewhat less quite easily.
All the cash costs put together to produce most oil (around 80mb/d) is less than $10/bbl before royalties and under $40 even with royalties. Looks like 40mmb/d doesn't even cost $5 a barrel! And that was last year before the market took a dive and knocked the hat of the frackers making them wheedle and beg for work to pay the mortgage on the 4x4 and snakeskins!
So
A) production won't fall off a cliff due to cost anytime soon because 90% of oil is still turning a tidy profit
B) 90% of that oil is the old fashioned, pressurized reservoir type where much of the cost happens up front (unlike manufactured oil like tar and LTO)
B) don't get your shorts in a knot over short's blather about eroei and whatever. If oil were prohibitively energy intensive don't you think the cash cost would be much higher - since energy costs money!? Doesn't anyone get that?
criminy!
lol
C) there is a whole buttload of cheap-ish oil yet, just not a whole buttload of cheap additional capacity. Look at the most expensive oil on that chart, the $30-$40 cost oil, it is the merest last 2-5mmb/d of capacity.
We can shed that easily and not really miss it I'm thinking, well, we are right now so we shall soon see. But the upshot is no matter what someone wants to sell you, peak oil means supply stops rising, not that it disappears.
But hey, there is always the next strain of ebola to look forward to.
Pops wrote:I'll say it for the umpeenth time, price is not falling on poor demand. Demand has increased.
Price fell on overproduction.
I know this because a) production increased and b) oil in storage increased.
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So yeah, collapse may well be nigh.
Equities are overvalued, US dollar carry trade is collapsing, oil E&P is grinding to a halt, governments worldwide are socializing the bad bets of the owners, and commodities of all kinds were overbuilt to feed China — which is doing the final toilet-bowl-tour.
But, peakers can't point to 2011-'14's flat production, high price and falling consumption as a sign of peak, then turn around point to increasing production, low prices and higher consumption as also a sign of peak.
It makes us look like some kind of some kind of enviro-apocalyptic death cult.
pstarr wrote:The global economy is collapsing now
pstarr wrote:The world prospered for decades on $20 oil. If we ever see that again we are in a death spiral.
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