But I find interesting is the way this has been reported over time. I have collected some quotes from the different IEA reports.
June 2002
Mexican crude oil production is projected to peak at 4.1 mb/d around 2010. Production will remain flat for about a decade, and then decline sharply, reaching 2.7 mb/d in 2030. New discoveries will not compensate for the decline in production from the large mature fields, such as Cantarell. Net exports of crude oil and products are expected to decline even more quickly than production, as domestic demand will continue to grow. By the third decade of the Outlook period, Mexico will become a net
importer of crude oil (Figure 4.14).
March 2004 (most probably the time of the peak)
Mexico – March actual: March crude production was largely unchanged from February’s 3.4 mb/d while NGL production gained 15 kb/d on the month, reaching 450 kb/d. Government sources put exports at a remarkably constant 1.86 mb/d for the 11th straight month. Heavy/sour Maya export volumes again gained in prominence as they have done since November. February’s 70 kb/d of exports to the Far East and non-specified destinations dried up in favour of sales into the Americas.
Energy Ministry proposals for a change in the tax regime affecting state producer Pemex recommend curbing government take from new development projects. It is suggested that this will be counterbalanced by higher oil and gas production overall, maintaining state revenues, one third of which derives from receipts from Pemex.
December 2004
Mexico – December actual: Crude production fell by 140 kb/d in December to average 3.22 mb/d, the lowest level since late-2002. This unscheduled drop is assumed to have been due to a temporary outage affecting the Cantarell field, source of the bulk of Mexico’s heavy Maya crude which took the bulk of December’s fall. However, exports remained unaffected by the fall in production, rising 25 kb/d to 1.98 mb/d, as sales out of storage rose to compensate.
May 2005
Pemex sources have again suggested the imminent onset of decline at the Cantarell oilfield which accounts for 65% of Mexican crude output. New field development projects intended to replace this decline are believed unlikely to contribute before 2006. With decline in production evident since mid-2004, even allowing for some recovery from low March levels, Mexican supply has been revised down for 2005. Crude output is now seen declining by 30 kb/d to 3.35 mb/d this year while NGL supply is held flat at 440 kb/d.
June 2005
State oil company Pemex has conceded that baseload Cantarell production is now in decline . With new field start-ups several months away at least, and potentially insufficient in scale to fully counteract Cantarell slippage, there is scant hope of increasing supply in 2005.
What you see is that up to the very moment of the peak the attitude is still very optimistic. They are talking about production increase even at the exact moment that production is tipping. Then you have a short period of: “Hey something is wrong here, what is happening?”. And then within a year the attitude has shifted to negativism: ”They have peaked and there is nothing that can be done about it”. “There are no big finds around the horizon”.
I expected them to stall the announcement as long as possible. One year seems very short.
Would it go the same for the world peak? In that case we would have certainty within a year after passing the peak.
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