Posted: Monday, February 23, 2015 8:15 pm
By Justin Wingerter The Topeka Capital-Journal
MANHATTAN – A study of wheat yields by 53 researchers on six continents, including a Kansas State University professor, has found that the effects of climate change on Kansas’ top crop will be far more disastrous, and begin much sooner, than previously thought.
Each time the average global temperature increases by one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), global wheat grain production is reduced by about 6 percent, according to the study, published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change.
According to the researchers, the 6 percent decline would equate to 42 megatons, or 42 million tons, of wheat each time the global temperature rises by a single degree Celsius.
“To put this in perspective, the amount is equal to a quarter of global wheat trade, which reached 147 (megatons) in 2013,” the researchers wrote. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported last September that the Earth had warmed 0.85 degrees Celsius between 1880 and 2012.
Among the 53 researchers was Dr. Vara Prasad, a professor of crop ecophysiology at Kansas State.
“The projected effect of climate change on wheat is more than what has been forecast,” Prasad said. “That’s challenging because the world will have to at least double our food supply in the next 30 years if we’re going to feed 9.6 billion people.”
The study, impressive in its scope, calculated grain-yield trends for the 30-year period from 1981 to 2010 at 30 wheat production centers around the world. Yields at six North American centers were calculated, including Kansas State’s research facility in Manhattan, along with two in South America, two in Africa, two in Australia and 18 across Europe and Asia.
At 20 of the 30 sites studied, wheat yields declined between 1981 and 2010, a fact that researchers attribute to a similar rise in temperatures at the sites. A simulated increase of 2 degrees Celsius would decrease wheat yields at all sites by as much as 28 percent, according to the study, and by more than half if the temperature is increased by 4 degrees Celsius.
“The increase in year-to-year yield variability is critical economically, as it could decrease some regional – and hence global – stability in wheat grain supply, amplifying market and price fluctuations,” the researchers wrote.
When temperatures are increased, Prasad explained, the growing period is shortened and fertilization is harmed, leading to lower grain numbers.
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“There are several adaptation options to counter the adverse effects of climate change on global wheat production – and for some regions, this will be critical,” the researchers wrote.
One such option is being explored at the Wheat Genetics Resource Center on the Kansas State campus. Two of Prasad’s colleagues – Harold Trick, a professor, and Allan Fritz, a wheat breeder – are adding genetic material from rice to wheat, creating a transgenic crop better suited to survive hotter temperatures.
As always, technology to the rescue.
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