One of the biggest reasons I think the solar industry has an incredibly bright future is the fact that it's one of only a few energy sources (i.e., wind) that is consistently and fundamentally lowering costs.
Fossil fuels, which are the solar industry's biggest competitor, are getting more expensive to extract from the ground in the long term, and nuclear costs continue to come in higher than anyone expects, making them noncompetitive with wind or solar. What's remarkable is the pace at which solar costs are coming down.
Solar costs becoming more competitive every day
A recent report from the Solar Energy Industries Association and GTM Research called "U.S. Solar Market Insight Report Q1 2015" showed that residential systems were 9.7% less expensive than a year ago, commercial system costs were 13.1% lower, and fixed tilt utility projects were down 7.6%.
That's an incredible pace for cost reductions considering the fact that solar energy is now competitive with the grid in all three segments. SolarCity (NASDAQ: SCTY) and Vivint Solar (NYSE: VSLR) can sell residential system leases or power purchase agreements for less than the cost of electricity to a home, even for small solar projects. Meanwhile on large solar projects, companies like First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR), SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR), and SunEdison (NYSE: SUNE) are winning projects based on the cost of the electricity they're selling, not mandates that used to drive solar installations.
The global economy grew strongly last year without increasing greenhouse gas emissions, suggesting that government regulations, carbon markets and existing technologies are starting to bite in the battle against climate change.
In a special report to help policy makers in the run-up to a major climate conference in Paris later this year, the International Energy Agency said the past year marks the first time that it has seen a decoupling of energy use and economic growth since being created as the energy watchdog for developed countries in the 1970s.
Pledges already put forward for the Paris conference, including by the U.S., European Union and China, could hold temperature increases to 2.6 degrees Celsius. That’s significantly less of an overshoot than the 3.6-degree long-term gain in the IEA’s main scenario issued in November. The United Nations is trying to hold an increase in temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.
The IEA outlook that’s being presented Monday shows what would happen under the national pledges already set out for Paris, which at the time the report was written in May accounted for a third of global emissions. Under that outlook, the IEA sees the world economy growing 88 percent by 2030 with carbon emissions gaining just 8 percent.
Graeme wrote:Holding Back Climate Change Isn’t as Hard as You ThinkThe global economy grew strongly last year without increasing greenhouse gas emissions, suggesting that government regulations, carbon markets and existing technologies are starting to bite in the battle against climate change.
In a special report to help policy makers in the run-up to a major climate conference in Paris later this year, the International Energy Agency said the past year marks the first time that it has seen a decoupling of energy use and economic growth since being created as the energy watchdog for developed countries in the 1970s.
Pledges already put forward for the Paris conference, including by the U.S., European Union and China, could hold temperature increases to 2.6 degrees Celsius. That’s significantly less of an overshoot than the 3.6-degree long-term gain in the IEA’s main scenario issued in November. The United Nations is trying to hold an increase in temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.
The IEA outlook that’s being presented Monday shows what would happen under the national pledges already set out for Paris, which at the time the report was written in May accounted for a third of global emissions. Under that outlook, the IEA sees the world economy growing 88 percent by 2030 with carbon emissions gaining just 8 percent.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) predicts that two thirds of the world's investments in building new power generation by 2030 may go to renewable energy, as declining costs make renewable energy more competitive and attractive. A whopping $5.1 trillion of a predicted $7.7 trillion of global energy investment could be spent on renewables. The BNEF’s 2030 Market Outlook report forecasting renewable energy’s future, is based on modelling of electricity market supply and demand, technology cost evolution, policy development in individual countries, and regions.
About half of the investment predicted will be in Asia, where power capacity will grow the most - Asia will account for $2.5 trillion of the $5.1 billion investment. BNEF expects the Americas to invest $816 billion. Europe is expected to give $967 billion, while the Middle East and Africa will invest another $818 billion. The annual investment in technologies such as solar, wind and hydropower surpassed fossil fuels for the first time in 2011.
The report believes that global carbon dioxide emissions will peak by the end of next decade, before declining thanks to renewable use. Michael Liebreich, Chairman of BNEF's advisory board says, "What we are seeing is global CO2 emissions on track to stop growing by the end of next decade, with the peak only pushed back because of fast-growing developing countries, which continue adding fossil fuel capacity as well as renewables.” Fossil fuels' share of power generation will shrink to 46 percent by 2030 from 64 per cent. Coal, gas and oil-fired plants will only account for about 1,073 gigawatts and much of that will be in developing countries where power demand is growing.
Graeme wrote:You are pointing out challenges that we already know about. You don't seem to be offering solutions. What we do know is that any fossil fuel won't be part of the solutions at all.
Watch Out Fossil Fuels: Costs Continue to Drop for Solar EnergyOne of the biggest reasons I think the solar industry has an incredibly bright future is the fact that it's one of only a few energy sources (i.e., wind) that is consistently and fundamentally lowering costs.
Fossil fuels, which are the solar industry's biggest competitor, are getting more expensive to extract from the ground in the long term, and nuclear costs continue to come in higher than anyone expects, making them noncompetitive with wind or solar. What's remarkable is the pace at which solar costs are coming down.
Solar costs becoming more competitive every day
A recent report from the Solar Energy Industries Association and GTM Research called "U.S. Solar Market Insight Report Q1 2015" showed that residential systems were 9.7% less expensive than a year ago, commercial system costs were 13.1% lower, and fixed tilt utility projects were down 7.6%.That's an incredible pace for cost reductions considering the fact that solar energy is now competitive with the grid in all three segments. SolarCity (NASDAQ: SCTY) and Vivint Solar (NYSE: VSLR) can sell residential system leases or power purchase agreements for less than the cost of electricity to a home, even for small solar projects. Meanwhile on large solar projects, companies like First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR), SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR), and SunEdison (NYSE: SUNE) are winning projects based on the cost of the electricity they're selling, not mandates that used to drive solar installations.
fool
It is fair to say that the success of solar power has astonished energy analysts over the last five years. The International Energy Agency yesterday forecast that renewables will produce more power than coal within 15 years.Technically, if solar’s current rate of growth continues, its output could match world power demand in just 18 years time. From big banks such as UBS and Citigroup, to environmental groups and technology entrepreneurs, everyone is talking of a “solar revolution”. The sun has become mainstream, and the world is moving inexorably towards a future that is not only clean, but which promises to democratise energy generation.
ROCKMAN wrote:ralfy - Exactly. As I just responded to you in the other post. The very conservative Texas politicians (including the gov Rick Perry) pushed wind based upon growth and not saving the planet. And as the discussion about rapid expansion of Georgetown and Austin indicates it's working...at least for now. And it could work for quite a while given our 100+ year supply of coal and our booming alt expansion. Oddly enough Texas (the largest producer of US fossil fuels) may be more prepared to handle PO then any other state and most countries IMHO.
Graeme wrote:There are only two issues to watch in this thread: global economic growth and renewable energy deployment. The "IEA sees the world economy growing 88 percent by 2030 with carbon emissions gaining just 8 percent" (see above). For the first issue, it will be useful to see if the IEA's prediction is accurate (they are known to be conservative), and which sectors of the economy are growing faster. Of course we would like emissions to decline sharply over this period. This will greatly depend on the rate of deployment of renewables. I saw the following article which mentions rate:It is fair to say that the success of solar power has astonished energy analysts over the last five years. The International Energy Agency yesterday forecast that renewables will produce more power than coal within 15 years.Technically, if solar’s current rate of growth continues, its output could match world power demand in just 18 years time. From big banks such as UBS and Citigroup, to environmental groups and technology entrepreneurs, everyone is talking of a “solar revolution”. The sun has become mainstream, and the world is moving inexorably towards a future that is not only clean, but which promises to democratise energy generation.
Peak in emissions
The IEA proposes a bridging strategy that could deliver a peak in global energy-related emissions by 2020. A commitment to target such a near-term peak would send a clear message of political determination to stay below the 2 °C climate limit. The peak can be achieved relying solely on proven technologies and policies, without changing the economic and development prospects of any region, and is presented in a “Bridge Scenario”. The technologies and policies reflected in the Bridge Scenario are essential to secure the longterm decarbonisation of the energy sector and their near-term adoption can help keep the door to the 2 °C goal open. For countries that have submitted their INDCs, the proposed strategy identifies possible areas for over-achievement. For those that have yet to make a submission, it sets out a pragmatic baseline for ambition.
The Bridge Scenario depends upon five measures:
Increasing energy efficiency in the industry, buildings and transport sectors.
Progressively reducing the use of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants and banning their construction.
Increasing investment in renewable energy technologies in the power sector from $270 billion in 2014 to $400 billion in 2030.
Gradual phasing out of fossil-fuel subsidies to end-users by 2030.
Reducing methane emissions in oil and gas production.
These measures have profound implications for the global energy mix, putting a brake on growth in oil and coal use within the next five years and further boosting renewables. In the Bridge Scenario, coal use peaks before 2020 and then declines while oil demand rises to 2020 and then plateaus. Total energy-related GHG emissions peak around 2020. Both the energy intensity of the global economy and the carbon intensity of power generation improve by 40% by 2030. China decouples its economic expansion from emissions growth by around 2020, much earlier than otherwise expected, mainly through improving the energy efficiency of industrial motors and the buildings sector, including through standards for appliances and lighting. In countries where emissions are already in decline today, the decoupling of economic growth and emissions is significantly accelerated; compared with recent years, the pace of this decoupling is almost 30% faster in the European Union (due to improved energy efficiency) and in the United States (where renewables contribute one-third of the achieved emissions savings in 2030). In other regions, the link between economic growth and emissions growth is weakened significantly, but the relative importance of different measures varies. India utilises energy more efficiently, helping it to reach its energy sector targets and moderate emissions growth, while the reduction of methane releases from oil and gas production and reforming fossil-fuel subsidies (while providing targeted support for the poorest) are key measures in the Middle East and Africa, and a portfolio of options helps reduce emissions in Southeast Asia. While universal access to modern energy is not achieved in the Bridge Scenario, the efforts to reduce energy related emissions do go hand-in-hand with delivering access to electricity to 1.7 billion people and access to clean cookstoves to 1.6 billion people by 2030.
The 5 winners of the first round of the SunShot Initiative’s Catalyst prize competition were recently announced at a ceremony in San Francisco. The 5 winners — which were chosen out of a field of 17 finalists — were chosen based on their successful demonstrations of solar energy software solutions.
The startups demonstrated their solutions live before the crowd at the ceremony on May 14 — before receiving checks for $30,000 (each) intended to help along the path to commercialization.
Without further to do, here are the 5 aforementioned winners:
Gridmates — Leverages peer-to-peer energy sharing to combat energy poverty.
PVComplete — Offers comprehensive solar project design software for solar salespeople that is compatible with the systems used by solar energy system engineers, roofers, and contractors.
Savenia Solar Ratings — Quantifies the value of solar energy systems for homeowners and installers.
Solar Site Design — Sells qualified solar energy development projects to solar equipment manufacturers, suppliers, engineering firms, and finance companies.
UtilityAPI — Automates utility data acquisition for solar companies so they can accurately size solar energy systems for customers based on their previous electricity usage.
It should be noted here that these winners are also eligible to get up to $70,000 more (each) following the completion of product development milestones, as set via agreement with the Energy Department and the judges of the competition.
Graeme wrote:This is what the IEA said:Peak in emissions
The IEA proposes a bridging strategy that could deliver a peak in global energy-related emissions by 2020. A commitment to target such a near-term peak would send a clear message of political determination to stay below the 2 °C climate limit. The peak can be achieved relying solely on proven technologies and policies, without changing the economic and development prospects of any region, and is presented in a “Bridge Scenario”. The technologies and policies reflected in the Bridge Scenario are essential to secure the longterm decarbonisation of the energy sector and their near-term adoption can help keep the door to the 2 °C goal open. For countries that have submitted their INDCs, the proposed strategy identifies possible areas for over-achievement. For those that have yet to make a submission, it sets out a pragmatic baseline for ambition.
The Bridge Scenario depends upon five measures:
Increasing energy efficiency in the industry, buildings and transport sectors.
Progressively reducing the use of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants and banning their construction.
Increasing investment in renewable energy technologies in the power sector from $270 billion in 2014 to $400 billion in 2030.
Gradual phasing out of fossil-fuel subsidies to end-users by 2030.
Reducing methane emissions in oil and gas production.
These measures have profound implications for the global energy mix, putting a brake on growth in oil and coal use within the next five years and further boosting renewables. In the Bridge Scenario, coal use peaks before 2020 and then declines while oil demand rises to 2020 and then plateaus. Total energy-related GHG emissions peak around 2020. Both the energy intensity of the global economy and the carbon intensity of power generation improve by 40% by 2030. China decouples its economic expansion from emissions growth by around 2020, much earlier than otherwise expected, mainly through improving the energy efficiency of industrial motors and the buildings sector, including through standards for appliances and lighting. In countries where emissions are already in decline today, the decoupling of economic growth and emissions is significantly accelerated; compared with recent years, the pace of this decoupling is almost 30% faster in the European Union (due to improved energy efficiency) and in the United States (where renewables contribute one-third of the achieved emissions savings in 2030). In other regions, the link between economic growth and emissions growth is weakened significantly, but the relative importance of different measures varies. India utilises energy more efficiently, helping it to reach its energy sector targets and moderate emissions growth, while the reduction of methane releases from oil and gas production and reforming fossil-fuel subsidies (while providing targeted support for the poorest) are key measures in the Middle East and Africa, and a portfolio of options helps reduce emissions in Southeast Asia. While universal access to modern energy is not achieved in the Bridge Scenario, the efforts to reduce energy related emissions do go hand-in-hand with delivering access to electricity to 1.7 billion people and access to clean cookstoves to 1.6 billion people by 2030.
SRI assets reached $6.57 trillion at the start of 2014, up from $3.74 trillion at the beginning of 2012, the US SIF Foundation revealed in its biennial "Report on US Sustainable, Responsible and Impact Investing Trends 2014." At this new level, investment strategies that integrate some form of environmental, social and governance criteria account for more than one out of every six professionally managed investment dollars in the United States. That’s nearly double what it was only two years ago.
The race for renewable energy has passed a turning point. The world is now adding more capacity for renewable power each year than coal, natural gas, and oil combined. And there's no going back.
The shift occurred in 2013, when the world added 143 gigawatts of renewable electricity capacity, compared with 141 gigawatts in new plants that burn fossil fuels, according to an analysis presented Tuesday at the Bloomberg New Energy Finance annual summit in New York. The shift will continue to accelerate, and by 2030 more than four times as much renewable capacity will be added.
ENTSO-E’s annual overview of the European electricity market, Electricity in Europe 2014, which has recently been released, testifies to the steady expansion of renewables generation taking place in the EU electricity sector:
33% of electricity produced in the EU now comes from renewables, of which 18.5% is hydropower and 14.4% “other renewables” (mostly wind and solar power). In 2011 hydropower supplied 15.3% and other renewables just 9.3%. The share of fossil fuels has gone down from 48.6% in 2011 to 40.5% in 2014. Nuclear power has remained stable despite the German nuclear phase-out.
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Indian Cabinet approved increasing the country’s solar target five times to a goal of reaching 100 gigawatts, up from 20 GW, by 2022.
The new solar capacity will be nearly split between residential and large-scale solar projects, with some 40 GW expected to be generated from rooftop installations and the remaining 60 GW coming from larger, grid-connected projects, such as solar farms.
“With this ambitious target, India will become one of the largest green energy producers in the world, surpassing several developed countries,” reads the announcement. “Solar power can contribute to the long term energy security of India, and reduce dependence on fossil fuels that put a strain on foreign reserves and the ecology as well.”
Graeme wrote:Raify, I know you are aware of sustainability issues. These are discussed elsewhere on this board (sustainability, circular economy, overshoot, etc). Many companies are also aware and already working on this. These challenges will get resolved eventually.
Without further to do, here are the 5 aforementioned winners:
Gridmates — Leverages peer-to-peer energy sharing to combat energy poverty.
PVComplete — Offers comprehensive solar project design software for solar salespeople that is compatible with the systems used by solar energy system engineers, roofers, and contractors.
Savenia Solar Ratings — Quantifies the value of solar energy systems for homeowners and installers.
Solar Site Design — Sells qualified solar energy development projects to solar equipment manufacturers, suppliers, engineering firms, and finance companies.
UtilityAPI — Automates utility data acquisition for solar companies so they can accurately size solar energy systems for customers based on their previous electricity usage.
Dam builders like to claim that hydropower is the world's largest source of renewable electricity. After a century-long head start over wind and solar power, large hydropower indeed accounted for 52 percent of the world's renewable energy capacity in 2014. But new figures from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) show that the picture is quickly changing.
The world added 132,000 megawatt of renewable energy capacity in 2014. This is roughly equal to the full power sector capacity of Canada or France. New wind power with 51,000 megawatt and new solar power with 40,000 megawatt were the biggest factors behind this spectacular growth. New large hydropower projects contributed 31,000 megawatt. These figures confirm a long-term trend: Since 2010, wind and solar power capacity has grown by a total of 313,000 megawatt -- almost four times faster than large hydropower plants.
Like the dam building industry, the World Bank explains that "hydropower is the world's largest source of renewable energy." This is a backward-looking argument. With the same justification, financiers could have argued for a continued focus on landline connections rather than mobile phones fifteen years ago. The future belongs to wind and solar power.
Renewable energy targets and other support policies now in place in 164 countries powered the growth of solar, wind and other green technologies to record-breaking energy generation capacity in 2014.
According to REN21's latest Renewables Global Status Report, policymakers continued to focus on adapting existing policies to keep pace with rapidly changing costs and circumstances.
With 135 gigawatts added, total installed renewable energy power capacity worldwide, including large hydroelectric plants, stood at 1712 gigawatts, up 8.5% from the year before and double the 800 gigawatts of capacity reported in the first REN21 report in 2005.
In 2014, renewables made up an estimated 59% of net additions to global power capacity and represented far higher shares of capacity added in several countries around the world. By year's end, renewables comprised an estimated 27.7% of the world's power generating capacity. This was enough to supply an estimated 22.8% of global electricity demand.
The quantity of electricity available from renewables worldwide is now greater than that produced by all coal-burning plants in the USA (in 2013 coal supplied ~38% of US electricity, down from ~50% in the early 2000s).
Solar photovoltaic capacity has grown at the most phenomenal rate (up 68-fold, from 2.6 GW in 2004 to 177 GW in 2014), with strong growth also in wind power capacity (up almost 8-fold, from 48 GW in 2004 to 370 GW in 2014).
We now have more insights into how the clean-tech economy is doing from this year’s sixth annual US Clean Tech Leadership Index. The index, prepared by Clean Edge, a research and indexing firm founded in 2000, tracks and ranks clean-tech activities in all 50 states and the largest 50 metro areas in the US. It provides a powerful tool for regional comparative research, aggregating industry data, and deep, data-driven analysis of the American clean-energy market.
"The United States has seen a significant shift in its energy landscape since Clean Edge began publishing its clean tech leadership index five years ago,” the report states.
“The transition to a clean tech and energy efficiency-based economy, based on the many indicators we track, is well underway. Solar and wind power, along with natural gas and energy efficiency, are now the mainstream choices for meeting the nation’s electricity needs; coal-fired and nuclear power, the dominant choices of the 20th century, have become the marginalized ‘alternatives.’”
As you are probably well aware, the good folks at The Solutions Project have published plans for how each of the 50 states in the US could switch to 100% renewable energy. Importantly, they didn’t just paint a broad stroke — they actually looked at electricity needs by region in 15-minute segments for the entire year and matched those with the most logical renewable energy resources in the region.
What you might not know is that The Solutions Project crew (led by Mark Z Jacobson on the research end) has been doing the same thing for countries across the world.
In simplistic form, you can see what splits The Solutions Project formulated for the US, the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan in the 7 infographics below that Mark recently shared with me. Enjoy!
A new report has determined that investments in energy-efficient and renewable energy sources yield more jobs for a set amount of spending than investing in maintaining or expanding the fossil fuel industry.
The report, Global Green Growth: Clean Energy Industrial Investment and Expanding Job Opportunities, was published earlier this week and presented at the Vienna Energy Forum 2015 by its two authors, the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO).
“Significant progress has already been made in overcoming the hitherto conventional wisdom that taking steps to cut GHGs is incompatible with economic growth,” said Yvo de Boer, Director-General of GGGI. “This report moves the debate another positive step forward by showing that employment and development result from sustainable, green growth.”
Within a decade, wind will become "the least-cost option almost universally." And by 2030, solar will become the cheapest resource.
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