http://phys.org/news/2014-12-fracking-boom.html
A team of researchers with the University of Texas has conducted an analysis of the fracking business in the United States and has found that the estimates made by other groups, most specifically the Energy Information Administration (EIA) regarding the amount of natural gas that can be extracted, is much too high. In a Nature News Feature, team lead Mason Inman suggests that the boom may last just half as long as predicted.
... EIA suggested that peak production would likely last up till 2040, and then taper off after that. Now, the Texas team is suggesting that even that estimate is too optimistic—they suggest the peak will likely come in 2020, and after that production will fall off dramatically.
The estimates differ, Inman says, because of differing approaches used to arrive at estimates. The Texas team used finer resolution he says, which offers a more realistic view of where we stand. As an example, he notes that the EIA made estimates based on county wide production in a given area, whereas the Texas team divided areas into one square mile units. Basing estimates on counties, he says, isn't fine enough because county size varies so much, with some as large as a thousand square kilometers. He and his team believe that the EIA also erred by overlooking human nature in the equation. Mining companies tend to look for the sweet spots, which is where production will be highest, he notes—once the sweet spots are depleted, production drops dramatically because there is less gas to be found, which means adding more costs to retrieve it.
The lower forecasts from Texas mesh with a few independent studies that use simpler methods. Studies by Weijermars6, as well as Mark Kaiser7 of Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge and retired Geological Survey of Canada geologist David Hughes8, suggest that increasing production, as in the EIA's forecasts, would require a significant and sustained increase in drilling over the next 25 years, which may not be profitable.
Some industry insiders are impressed by the Texas assessment. Richard Nehring, an oil and gas analyst at Nehring Associates in Colorado Springs, Colorado, which operates a widely used database of oil and gas fields, says the team's approach is “how unconventional resource assessments should be done”.
... The results are “bad news”, says Tad Patzek, head of the University of Texas at Austin's department of petroleum and geosystems engineering, and a member of the team that is conducting the in-depth analyses. With companies trying to extract shale gas as fast as possible and export significant quantities, he argues, “we're setting ourselves up for a major fiasco”.
Report: Natural gas: The fracking fallacy