ROCKMAN wrote:And about China's "obsession" with autos: I couldn't find any reliable stats but from my limited exposure the great demand for vehicles was for commerce and not commuting to a job or for pleasure. As I said, without one exception, every young Chinese lad I spoke to was emphatic about needing wheels to conduct business. And conducting business was key to getting a wife. Commuting via their own vehicle to a job working for someone else had no appeal from what I gathered from my conversations. Saving money to buy a vehicle was synonymous with saving money to start a business.
MonteQuest wrote:Desu,
Here's where China has been getting their oil.
And as Europe continues toward a depression, China will suck it up.
MonteQuest wrote:And this is interesting.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303802904579334411874909686
DesuMaiden wrote: China's economy is going to collapse within the next ten years due to an oil shortage, I believe. Mark my words. The global economy will collapse within the next ten years due to oil shortages.
DesuMaiden wrote:If the USA controls the oil in Iraq, how come they are letting the Chinese import oil from Iraq? Wouldn't the USA be preventing China from importing oil from a country they control?
MonteQuest wrote:DesuMaiden wrote:If the USA controls the oil in Iraq, how come they are letting the Chinese import oil from Iraq? Wouldn't the USA be preventing China from importing oil from a country they control?
You suggest imposing sanctions on China?
I don't agree. Each person in the US consumes around 22 barrels of oil a year. Each person in China consumes around 3 barrels. Now lets say global production of oil stops increasing next year. Oil demand turns into a zero sum game where if one person wants to consume more, someone else has to consume less. Because demand is still growing but supply isn't, oil increases in price. Now imagine some chinese worker with growing income. He can now afford to pay the extra premium for oil now demanded by the market. Further, that extra barrel of oil is very precious to him. It enables him to startup a new buisiness for the first time. With the extra money he can now afford to get married and start a family. Now contrast that to the average american. He is looking at the prices at the pump and asking himself, "Do I really need to keep my Hummer? Maybe I can make do with a Corolla. Or skip my cross country drive from now on." Bottom line, oil demand is going to fall first where it is being used least economically. That is in the US, not China:DesuMaiden wrote:Yeah but China will eventually suck all of it dry because oil is a nonrenewable resource. China's economy is going to collapse within the next ten years due to an oil shortage, I believe. Mark my words. The global economy will collapse within the next ten years due to oil shortages.
Here’s How The Global Oil Grab Affects YouThink this through. If you’re a North American, using 22-24 barrels of oil per year, will you scale back and use less if the price goes up? Will you negotiate your non-negotiable standard of living? Probably yes, because, after all, you’ve got a lot of room on the downside of your demand. (Look at how those poor Europeans schlep by on 10 barrels per year.)
The bottom line is that the average North American can surrender a barrel or two of oil use. The numbers show we already have! In some respects, we barely miss it.
But if you’re Indian or Chinese and using under three barrels of oil per year per capita, what will it take for you to cut back on use? The answer is that you won’t cut back, and you certainly won’t give up your barrels just because of higher oil prices.
kublikhan wrote: Bottom line, oil demand is going to fall first where it is being used least economically. That is in the US, not China:
DesuMaiden wrote:There ain't going to be enough oil to sustain the Chinese economic growth. I'm sorry, but there just ain't enough oil for China.
ROCKMAN wrote:Well, every bbl of oil China imports today used to be imported by another country...until China stepped in and pushed them aside.
You do understand that despite what many Americans think we do not have Dog given right to import what oil we need, don't you? LOL.
Oil production did increase:Sixstrings wrote:That makes me wonder about something, did global production ever increase or did it mostly peak and it's been a negligible increase? (I think it's the latter, but I get bored with oil so I don't know )
The developed nations cut back some, but overall world oil consumption still grew. Check out the graph Montequest posted above.Sixstrings wrote:So what happened here, I guess we got more effecient in the West and then also the great recession and we slowed down and all of that is what has met Chinese demand?
It will always wash out. Prices will simply keep rising as long someone can afford to pay. Higher prices = more marginal oil sources can be profitably worked. Then sometimes supply increases too much or demand rises slower than expected, like today. Or demand just falls outright because the price is too high. So prices start heading back down. And some of those marginal oil producers start to squeal. If the condition persists for too long, they have to shut in production. Oil production starts to go down and surplus supply is taken off the market. Then prices start to rise again. It's what they call the "boom-bust cycle". Perfect is not exactly the word I would choose to describe the messy boom-bust cycle. However markets have a built in way of matching supply and demand.Sixstrings wrote:And it all just washed out, perfectly? Plus, I do know US production has helped. Being #1 again in total energy -- and a lot of shale oil -- has kept global prices where they are.
Does it all just work out maybe, ok?
ralfy wrote:Also, the scrapped cars might be sold to developing economies.
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