by Pops » Wed 13 Aug 2014, 14:12:31
LTO decline rate is important because it could compound the shock of our underlying decline. We (US) could experience a greater decline over the next 10 years than we have in the preceding 40 if shale declines as advertised. Like so:
So here we are with Diane Sawyer saying we're going to be the world's largest exporter of oil, watching the messages from the Oil & Gas Industry on the tube and feeling all warm and fuzzy and then all of a sudden the bottom drops out about 2016 with 8-10% per year declines.
The idea that decline rates would never be that large has always been the thing that kept me from being an Overnight Armageddon type. I've pointed to shale as the only thing that has kept global decline at bay but RU has been increasing as well and KSA & Iraq to an extent.
Need I mention that global exports have already peaked, RU is now looking pretty flat and some say peaky, KSA is building rigs right and left to keep up production, the N Sea has been experiencing huge, steady declines as has Mexico - oh, and US nat gas is increasingly coming from those same shale wells that are producing the LTO ...
The only thing worse than hubbert's chart is the shark fin plot
da nuuuu ... da NUUU ... DA NU DA NU.
Last edited by
Pops on Wed 13 Aug 2014, 17:21:04, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: clarity
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)