A little reality check regarding shale gas saving the Ukraine from those mean Russian NG sellers.
Reuters - Ukraine's crisis underscores the importance of Europe's drive for greater energy security and could buoy development of shale gas as the continent looks to cut back on Russian supplies. Significantly, EU politicians left shale out of tougher rules on exposing the environmental impact of oil and conventional gas. Poland also introduced an investor-friendly shale gas bill aimed at cutting red tape and regulatory hurdles. Britain and Poland have for years pressed for shale gas development to help lessen their dependence on imported fossil fuels. Should Russia's seizure of Crimea include a takeover offshore gas fields, Ukraine's best remaining sources of new energy will be its two large, untapped shale finds.
[A tad late with that speculation: the Crimean gov't has just taken control of those offshore fields. Given the dominance of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea it should be a safe bet this move will stick]
"Ukraine has Europe's third-largest shale gas reserves at 42 trillion cubic feet (1.2 trillion cubic metres), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration." No Ukraine doesn't have the third largest shale gas RESERVES. They have exactly ZERO reserves but there is a great deal of unconventional NG RESOURCES that yet to be proven as commercially viable.
Kiev has signed a deal with Chevron to develop the Olesska block in western Ukraine and one with Royal Dutch Shell to develop its Yuzivska field in the east. "Unrest in any part of the world related to oil and gas production and transport argues in favour of long-term diversity of supply," said the International Association of Oil and Gas Producers. Thus far, Europe's hoped-for shale boom has struggled, with estimates of Poland's reserves slashed, public unease holding up British plans, and outright bans in France and Bulgaria."
So let's hear from the somewhat biased voices of the Ukraine gov't: "In 2012, Ukraine's central government (under Yanukovych) selected Shell and Chevron as the winning bidders for two shale-gas concessions. As is the case across Europe, shale drilling has faced some controversy in Ukraine, but regional councils have voted overwhelmingly to approve the deals. The Shell deal alone is estimated to entail long-term investment of $10 billion, though commercial-scale production is not expected until 2017 at the earliest. The government's target is for 2030 shale-gas production of 0.2 to 0.4 Bcf per day, less than 10% of current consumption levels."
So even the Ukraine gov't says many tens of $billions will need to be invested by foreign companies and even their presumably optimistic forecast is that it will take at least 15+ years before shale gas (of which no one has yet produced any commercial volume) to deliver just 10% of their consumption level. Of course, one has to wonder if the Shell Oil drilling rigs a lining up next to those Russian tanks on the Ukraine border just ready to spud in. Having worked with a few Dutchmen I would guess they'll wait till they know exactly who will have complete control of their future POTENTIAL revenue stream.
Of course that 10% of their consumption figure assumed the Ukraine would still be receiving NG and oil from their offshore fields. Fields that have now been taken over by the Crimean gov't. And the potential out there: Offshore Crimean play: Until now, that is part of the exclusive economic zone of Ukraine, according to the international Law of the Sea. But if Crimea formally votes on March 16 to give up its autonomous republic status in Ukraine and join the Russian Federation, and if the Russian parliament and President Vladimir Putin formally accept, these resources are no longer Ukrainian. They become Russian. The potential is enormous. The Crimean offshore areas already identified represent a third of the undiscovered natural gas resources of Ukraine and a fifth of the undiscovered oil resources…including: oil and condensate – 6 billion bbls and NG - 3.5 TCF. The most prospective for the search of significant deposits is the deep part of the Black Sea. Its potential recoverable resources reach more than 54% of the total Black Sea resources.
Details including cool maps:
http://johnhelmer.net/?p=10359#ixzz2w3gkhqBx