PeakOiler wrote:I came across another update thanks to the reference I gave above:
Brent-WTI Reconciliation Dreams Shattered<<snip>>The Cushing crude stockpile still remains stubbornly high according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Although down this past week (January 21, 2013) from a record high of 52 MMBbl on January 7, 2013 the stockpile is still only 187 MBbl lower than that record. There are two likely culprits for the continuing record stockpile. The first is Midwest refinery demand (see above) and the second is the strange goings on with the Seaway Pipeline.
The strange goings on came to the attention of spread fans last week (January 23, 2013). We learned then that the Seaway pipeline capacity between Cushing and Houston - increased from 150 Mb/d to 400 Mb/d earlier in January - had to be scaled back to 175 Mb/d by operator Enterprise. The company posted a notice to shippers stating that because of “unforeseen constraints in outbound takeaway…. the Jones Creek delivery point has reached maximum capacity”.
The constraint on the Seaway pipeline was caused by congestion at the Houston end of the system that the operator Enterprise says will potentially continue until late in 2013. The constraint will only be relieved once Enterprise completes a lateral pipeline from Jones Creek to its ECHO terminal
They might have looked shattered one year ago this month, but they sure are shaping their orbits closer today.
NVEZZ.com: Wednesday, February 12th:
Crude oil
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light sweet crude has today reached its highest point since 27 December, at $100.61 a barrel, supported by data from the US American Petroleum Institute (API) showing that distillate inventories fell last week.
API yesterday reported that inventories at the oil hub in Cushing, Oklahoma shrank 2.49 million barrels.
“This is a very large decline, the largest I can remember,” says Strategic Energy and Economic Research president Michael Lynch. He observes that “the completion of pipelines is ending the bottleneck at Cushing”, which “suggests that the days of a big WTI-Brent spread are coming to an end”.
WTI has been trading at a discount to Brent in recent years due to rising US oil production and limited transportation for excess volumes to the Gulf Coast. Currently the spread is at $8.27 a barrel.
The decline at Cushing “is clearly a positive for oil prices,” says CMC Markets chief strategist Michael McCarthy.
API also reported distillate stockpiles down by 1.45 million barrels last week.
&
Brent crude today approached $109 a barrel after the news that Chinese oil imports hit a record high last month, lifting optimism for growing oil demand in the world’s second largest economy.
China’s crude oil imports y/y grew 11.9 percent last month to a record 28.16 million tonnes, or 6.63 million barrels per day, customs data showed today.
Also positive for economic conditions in the People’s Republic was that exports rose 10.6 percent in the January year, while imports climbed 10 percent.
“The strong data underpins strength in oil markets and across the whole commodity board,” writes Societe Generale head of commodities research Mark Keenan. “The data is so surprising that there's an element of checking whether it's in fact correct at the moment.”
More waffling and projections at
http://invezz.com/news/commodities/8792 ... -disappearI especially like the last line I quoted;
The data is so surprising that there's an element of checking whether it's in fact correct at the moment.
Does that not sum up the reaction of the reporters and analysts from 2005 to 2014 rather well?