[Graeme]

Has the U.S. Reached “Peak Motorization”?

Peak oil? Probably not. But have we reached “peak motorization” in the U.S.?

Michael Sivak of the University of Michigan’s Transportation Research Institute says the answer is quite possibly yes:

The absolute number of vehicles reached a maximum in 2008. However, it is likely that this was only a temporary maximum and that the decline after 2008 was primarily driven by the current economic downturn that started in 2008. Consequently, with the improving economy and the expected increase in the U.S. population, it is highly likely that (from a long-term perspective) the absolute number of vehicles has not yet peaked. On the other hand, the rates of vehicles per person, licensed driver, and household reached their maxima prior to the onset of the current economic downturn. Consequently, it is likely that the declines in these rates prior to the current economic downturn (i.e., prior to 2008) reflect other societal changes that influence the need for vehicles (e.g., increases in telecommuting and in the use of public transportation). Therefore, the recent maxima in these rates have better chances of being long-term peaks as well.

freakonomics

[Pops]

Consequently, it is likely that the declines in these rates prior to the current economic downturn (i.e., prior to 2008) reflect other societal changes that influence the need for vehicles (e.g., increases in telecommuting and in the use of public transportation).

So what might be another of those "societal changes" ?

Maybe the fact that gas had risen 250%% between 02 & 06?




Naw
.

[dinopello]

Young people definitely do not view the car the way that past generation have. So many parents tell me their kid doesn't have an interest in driving. It seems to be a status symbol if you get around without a car around here. Two of my recent hires do not own cars. It's kind of a pain for me - they get to work OK but if they have to go on some local travel that isn't transit accessible (which is still most places) it's a big ordeal.

Cost of driving is certain an issue, maybe the largest single issue.

[Graeme]

Did you see this comment at end of article?

One of the primary reasons I live abroad is so I don’t have to own a car. Cars are an enormous waste of money. The cost of the vehicle, insurance, gas, repairs, parking fees, and tickets are unbearable for young people who make far less than the boomer generation. Owning a car might have been a no-brainer in the 50s, but with prices the way they are now, it hardly makes economic sense. Living in a densely populated country with good transportation has allowed me to pay off huge loans and save money hand over fist. This isn’t possible for my peers back home. I see this trend as continuing.

[dolanbaker]

Europe certainly has!
http://www.acea.be/index.php/news/news_ ... .6_in_june

In June, new passenger car registrations totaled 1,134,042 units, declining by 5.6% compared to the same month last year. In the first half year of 2013, 6,204,990 new cars were registered in the EU*, or 6.6% less than in the first six months of 2012.

In June, the UK was the only major market to expand (+13.4%), while the Spanish slipped by 0.7% and the German (-4.7%), Italian (-5.5%) and French (-8.4%) contracted. Total new registrations in the EU* amounted to 1,134,042 units, or the lowest level recorded since 1996.

From January to June, except for the UK which expanded by 10.0%, all other major markets faced a downturn ranging from -4.9% in Spain to -8.1% in Germany, -10.3% in Italy and -11.2% in France. Overall, demand for new cars reached 6,204,990 units in the first semester of this year and decreased by 6.6% compared to the first half year of 2012.

Cars are getting older & older on the roads of Ireland and fewer teenagers are taking up driving.

[TheDude]

Regarding VMT, Gail Tverberg posted this in January:



She didn't make note of the break in the trend in the past couple of years - inroads by EVs? Carpooling? Increased CAFE? All of the above? From Why is US Oil Consumption Lower? Better Gasoline Mileage?

The secular trend shows an absolute peak followed by a plateau at a lower level:



I'd noticed the peaks in other fields the OP looks into a long time ago. Starting about 15 years back people began to take less and less interest in extraneous expenditures like owning extra cars, or flipping them over every other year for the latest and greatest. These are notable factors but of tertiary interest to what really matters, which is how much they're driving, how many new cars are being bought, etc.