You are still very very confused. Peak oil is about when crude oil supply is no longer able to raise.meemoe_uk wrote:Anyway.... I don't expect to convince any of you away from PO_Doom_is_now. I just want to show you the oil supply figures every year. How they go up every year. If PO was now then the figures would go DOWN every year.
meemoe_uk wrote:Anyway.... I don't expect to convince any of you away from PO_Doom_is_now. I just want to show you the oil supply figures every year. How they go up every year. If PO was now then the figures would go DOWN every year. You'll have your excuses. I can say why they are flawed but you won't see.
Do you understand how inflation works? In today's dollars, the price of oil was about $16 in 1928. About the same price it was in 1998. The fact that in 1928 dollars oil cost one dollar but in 1998 dollars oil cost over $10 is irrelevent. It was NOT 10x as expensive in '98 as in '28 in real terms, just inflation adjusted funny money. In real terms, the man of '28 had to give up about the same portion of his income as the man in '98 to buy oil. On the other hand, now the real price AND the nominal price of oil is over $100. The kub of today really does have to give up over 5x as much of his income to purchase oil as the kub of '98 or '28. If the real cost of oil further increased 100 fold as you suggest, kub could no longer afford to buy gasoline to put in his car. You could preach to kub all day about how a gallon of gas can do the work of 300 men, kub would just reply that he cannot afford to hire 300 men either. And it's not just poor kub who has to pay more for energy. That cost increase affects everything. The oil and gas companies too have to spend more on equipment, materials, energy costs, etc:meemoe_uk wrote:What you seem to be missing is that dollars are a fiat currency. There were times in the 1st half of the 20th century Oil was 10 cents a barrel. How would you tell a kublikhan living in the 1930s depression that $20 oil was a really good price for a stable and prosperous economy? Wouldnt he say " There are many things that wouldn't be economical if the price was that high " ?
As long as it is easier to do stuff by using oil than without, then the economy and dollars would evolve around any oil price.
Costs to produce oil and gas rose 11 percent over the past six months and are expected to continue their surge, pressuring energy companies already being hit by countries that are demanding a bigger cut of profits, according to a new study. Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), a unit of information provider and consultancy IHS Inc (IHS.N), also said costs to build new refineries and petrochemical plants rose 8 percent in the last period.
"The oil and gas industry worldwide is suffering from sticker shock. While motorists may see the price at the pump, the industry is seeing very dramatic increases in costs," said Dan Yergin, chairman of CERA. The IHS/CERA Upstream Capital Costs Index (UCCI) rose to 196 at the end of the third quarter from the starting point of 100 in 2000, meaning that equipment that would have cost $100 at the start of that period would cost $196 now. The UCCI was 179 at the end of the first quarter.
Costs to drill new oil and gas projects have been rising steadily since 2005 due to sky-high demand for the steel, equipment and laborers. CERA had predicted that increases might slow earlier this year, but said they had increased their pace since that prediction.
The delays and cost increases have also supported the rising prices, increasing the real price to produce oil and keeping production levels down. "Delays and slowness of new capacity coming on -- that lag is putting a big foundation under prices," Yergin said. "The effect of these costs is the big under appreciated factor in today's prices."
Meemoe could you answer this one too? Do you realize that biofuels are included in total liquids and that biofuels are not oil? Do you also realize that if we are in fact producing large amounts of biofuels it is because we are seeking alternatives to oil? Thus pointing to large amounts of biofuels and other non-crude sources being produced actually weakens your case that crude oil is cheap and abundant?AirlinePilot wrote:Your refusal to understand the difference between TOTAL LIQUIDS increases and the PLATEAU of global CRUDE production, is a sure sign that you do not get the basic concepts of Peak Oil, nor do you want to attempt to understand them.
kublikhan wrote:Meemoe could you answer this one too? Do you realize that biofuels are included in total liquids and that biofuels are not oil? Do you also realize that if we are in fact producing large amounts of biofuels it is because we are seeking alternatives to oil? Thus pointing to large amounts of biofuels and other non-crude sources being produced actually weakens your case that crude oil is cheap and abundant?
dorlomin wrote:[The 'long emergency' peak oil scenario is now snatching food of off poor Asian families tables to run down the mall in a pick up truck.
vtsnowedin wrote:dorlomin wrote:[The 'long emergency' peak oil scenario is now snatching food of off poor Asian families tables to run down the mall in a pick up truck.
How did you know I'd be reading that while eating a slice of pizza I just made a ten mile round trip for in a 4X4 pickup???
I did drop off mail at the PO and picked up wine for the girls so it was a combined trip at least.
meemoe_uk wrote:>I don't understand where you are getting this point about a hundred years.
If you'd read my posts before commenting you'd know I was short handing for peakers and their predecessors, the running outers. Combined, they have been predicting oil doom for over 100 yeras.
Anyway.... I don't expect to convince any of you away from PO_Doom_is_now. I just want to show you the oil supply figures every year. How they go up every year. If PO was now then the figures would go DOWN every year. You'll have your excuses. I can say why they are flawed but you won't see.
No doubt if I brought an oil is running out doomer from the 19th century into today and show him the rise in oil production thru the 20th and 21st centurys, he'd make an excuse for the oil rise not counting and then join you in shouting peak oil doom is about now!
see you all next year. Plenty more oil supply increase is going to come from the new golden age of oil supply that we live in.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released full-year 2011 world oil production data. In this post, I would like show some graphs of recent data, and provide some views as to where this leads with respect to future production.
World oil supply is not growing very much
The fitted line in Figure 1 suggests a “normal” growth in oil supplies (including substitutes) of 1.6% a year, based on the 1983 to 2005 pattern, or total growth of 10.2% between 2005 and 20011. Instead of 10.2%, actual growth between 2005 and 2010 amounted to only 3.0% including crude oil and substitutes.
It is easy to find small opportunities where it looks possible to increase oil production, but on a world-wide basis, it appears likely that at best, very slow growth will continue. The oil production of China and Russia were previously increasing, but now seem to be hitting plateaus. Even smaller groupings, such as the FSU excluding Russia, seem to be hitting plateaus.
Future prospects for oil supply look to be worse, especially if Iranian exports are taken off line, or if there are unexpected surprises on the downside. One concern is that political disruptions may take oil production offline in additional countries. Anther is that financial disruptions (perhaps related to European debt defaults) may lead to lower oil prices, cutting off some marginal supply.
On balance, it would appear that at best, oil production in the near future will be virtually flat, leading to more spiking of oil prices and greater world economic problems. Another possibility is that world production will begin to decline. The likelihood of decline would appear to be increased if more oil exporters encounter political disruptions, or if the world enters a major recession leading to an oil price decline.
meemoe_uk wrote:Hi dsula,
In terms of more prosperity for more people, yes, more oil production is better.
Your question is alluding more about world population and its ideal number to fit the planet. It's pretty off the mark wrt the direct question of peak oil, but I understand its hard being a doomer during a golden age of oil, you gotta clutch at any straw you can get.
You lot don't mine making a show of squirming in desperation do you?
meemoe_uk wrote:List of Preemptive peplys to tired old PO religion objections about new oil production record set
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