[ecopal]

The debate is twofold. Most around here are positioning themselves for an inevitable meltdown of civilization it seems. The other side would be how to be position yourself to just be a good steward of the environment and to use the fewest possible resources while keeping your same job and, I guess, a slightly less extreme vision of what might come. How does one reasonably cut back and what makes the most sense? Do you really think it is too late for everyone to just reduce consumption?

[Ferretlover]

Too late to just reduce consumption?
Yes, I think it is. While energy saving may put off the inevitable for a bit longer in some areas, there are just too many people for the resources that are left.
Someone, and by that I mean a Lot of someones, are going to have to go.

[Blacksmith]

I will beg to differ with the majority of people and prehaps even with myself, but condo's are a very efficient way to live.

If we have a liquid fuel shortage that does not mean we will have an energy shortage. Electricity will still heat the condo, and it is cheaper to feed a concentrated many than spead out few. A group of people will make repairs an easier thing, and railroads will be able to transport the essential of life.
Just look at the diversity of products you have in a city versus a small town or an isolated farm.

[max_in_wa]

Too late to just reduce consumption?
Yes, I think it is. While energy saving may put off the inevitable for a bit longer in some areas, there are just too many people for the resources that are left.
Someone, and by that I mean a Lot of someones, are going to have to go.

I wholeheartedly agree that we will be facing negative population growth one way or another. I tend to think however that there is enough time to go that route by choice rather than force of nature (part of the reason I have intentionally chosen to be child-free).

On a different note, when people mention a "bug out" place, the vision I have is someplace very remote and secret, perhaps so remote that hopping on the bicycle and riding to town isn't actually an option. I mean, if the world became so bad you had to hide in the hills, the chances of making it to town and back on your bike would be about as remote as your cabin. Maybe I have the wrong vision of what people are using for the term "bug out" place.

In my mind, even having the conveniences of 1825 would take a monumental community effort. Nobody can really survive in any but the barest sense of the word as mountain man.

The following is an example of how impossibly hard it would be to live alone:

I've mentioned my pottery studio -- I should mention the kiln too. It's a 1500 year old design, one of the first high temperature kilns. For it's time, it was high tech like a mars rover is today. So high-tech that Japan captured Korean artisans in pottery wars to bring the technology back to Japan.

Building the kiln took 2500 high temperature bricks at 9 lbs each (my kiln is very small for this type by the way -- the minimum size to get to 2375 F). Bricks are easy enough to make and given the materials, I could make all the bricks I need. However to make this many bricks would take 22,500 pounds of clay. The bricks I used were made at a place with appropriate clay for high temperature bricks maybe 100 miles or so from here. No one person, no matter how strong, is moving 11 tons of material 100 miles alone. To move that much material is a major undertaking that requires some degree of social structure and cooperation. You need people to raise horses, people build carts, people to mine ore and smelt iron to build the carts, people to cut firewood to run the smelter, carts to haul that wood, people to drive the carts, people to dig the clay, and so on.

To fire the kiln takes four cords of wood. I imagine many "bug out" shacks are equipped with chainsaws and other tools. Once the gas is gone, these are good for nothing but ballast. I usually have wood delivered to me cut and split. I then split it by hand into even smaller pieces. A few times, I've gone out and cut my own (with a truck and chainsaw). It really isn't realistic to think one person can cut, carry, and split four cords of wood alone -- it would take forever to push a wheelbarrow 10 miles up into the hills, cut wood by hand, and push it home. A person would be lucky to get a wheelbarrow load per day, and have to travel farther and farther because of deforestation.

To achieve the high temperature necessary for durable dishes, storage jars, cooking vessels, and to get there takes a stoking pattern that takes an armload of wood every 7-10 minutes, 24 hours/day for 4-5 days. I've stayed awake so long I've had audio and visual hallucinations from the sleep deprivation, but I've never stayed awake for 4 days straight. It's physically impossible.

And on the topic of storage jars -- what kind of food preservation techniques are going to work? Canning is nice but what will you do when the sealing lids are permanently out of stock? Dried food is nice, but what does a person who lives in a wet area do? Frozen food? As long as there is electricity and a functioning freezer.

Anyway, do some thought experiments and it becomes plain that going it totally alone isn't actually feasible. Any long term survival will require community.

Perhaps I misunderstood what people mean by a "bug out" place, but if this somewhere to survive in a case of total breakdown, then you are implicitly hoping for a restoration of order within a relatively short time. You could store the same MREs in the extra bedroom of your apartment, and live fine while the hungry hordes roam the countryside in search of tasty morsels -- and no, you won't ever have enough cartridges for the roving bandits.

[Heineken]

We face an incredibly difficult future that will be incredibly different from everything we are accustomed to. Some of us just can't do the gymnastic cognitive flip that is required to absorb and accept that fact. If there is one thing I have learned on this website is that there are no easy answers and that in some cases there are no answers. Many will die; many MUST die. I personally fully expect to die prematurely.

So place yer bet and spin the wheel. I'd rather die in the woods than in a condo because a condo is just not my style.

[ORCA]

This is an interesting thread. I see advantages on both sides regarding urban living in multi-family dwelling as opposed to single family dwelling - both urban and rural.

I live on five acres of land in a county bordering a city. My land is zoned agricultural. It is part of a subdivision of sorts, with the smallest "lot" being five acres...like mine. There are about 32 other houses in this development populated with hard-working families used to rural life and self-suffeciency. There is one way in for vehicles across a bridge onto a private road that we maintain ourselves. Controlling access would be easy if we chose to do so.

Having recently retired, I have the time and good health at 57 to work our property to grow food, provide wood for heat, and also provide security (if required). It would be a simple thing for the families to band together, if necessary or beneficial, to grow food and/or provide security.

While destinctly rural here, the "city" is only four miles up the road. The city is 50 sq. miles in size and has a pop. of about 62K. Surrounding the city are three mostly rural counties. This entire region has the abilty to feed itself. Being good 'ol Southern folk of all colors, we also have the abilty to keep the zombies OUT...if you know what I mean. I can't imagine living any other way or anywhere else, including a condo. Sorry, but living in what is basically an apartment within feet of strangers might be the cheapest under normal conditions, its a sinking ship if society begins to unravel.

Just my opinion. Your mileage may vary.

[max_in_wa]

..I live on five acres of land in a county bordering a city. My land is zoned agricultural. It is part of a subdivision of sorts, with the smallest "lot" being five acres...like mine. There are about 32 other houses in this development ...
Having recently retired, I have the time and good health at 57 to work our property to grow food, provide wood for heat, and also provide security (if required). It would be a simple thing for the families to band together, if necessary or beneficial, to grow food and/or provide security. ...

It sounds like a nice place. However, if the doomiest of the doomers are correct ... I'm more of a "rough timer" than a hard core doomer BTW ... but just for the fun of it, imagine you have no fuel, no electricity, and no source for new or replacement equipment (even hand tools).

How will the wood be cut? The chainsaw won't be running so who in your community already has hand powered crosscut saws in storage? How will the firewood be moved to the place it is used? Does anyone have a horse and cart ready to go? How soon would all the wood on the 160 acre space you guys have be used up (how much would be used per year and how fast does the wood grow -- be sure to include year round usage because cooking food happens all year)?

If the energy apocalypse came in September -- has anyone already stored seeds for the spring planting? Are the seeds hybrids which may result in nice fat veggies one year, but infertile seeds for the following years? What will you do for fertilizer? How will the fields be watered if the rain is unreliable? For that matter, where is your water coming from -- wells presumably, but how will that be drawn? Anyone have hand pumps in their garage?

How will the food be stored for the fall, winter, and spring? How will you replace storage containers when the ones you have wear out or break?

Anyway, 32 families -- 128 people or more -- is quite a crowd to support on about 1 acre each for food and fuel using nothing but manual labor. It's a fact -- merely having five acres isn't even a fraction of the answer if the worst of the worst happens. Our entire infrastructure is built around motors. Stop the motors and I doubt most people have the hand tools needed to even try to survive. Even with the hand tools -- this kind of work is hard to imagine.

I've done some of this sort of stuff and it really makes me value the 25,000 man hours of labor contained in a barrel of oil.

[Kingcoal]

The lowest per capita users of energy are NYC residents, who are on par and possibly slightly lower than Europeans as a whole. City living is efficient because of the available public transit, communal living, etc. Cities existed long before the oil age and will continue to exist and thrive post peak. Suburban areas are a different story because the lifestyle is generally built around the automobile, which may well become almost extinct post peak.

[mos6507]

How will the wood be cut? The chainsaw won't be running...
I've done some of this sort of stuff and it really makes me value the 25,000 man hours of labor contained in a barrel of oil.

Luckily there is this thing called solar electricity and batteries.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFYpNrbyKCA

[mos6507]

The lowest per capita users of energy

Does that include the food inputs, all of which are external?

[max_in_wa]

How will the wood be cut? The chainsaw won't be running...
I've done some of this sort of stuff and it really makes me value the 25,000 man hours of labor contained in a barrel of oil.

Luckily there is this thing called solar electricity and batteries.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFYpNrbyKCA

The video is interesting but there is some missing data. How long can a person work on a full charge? How quickly will the system recharge? Of personal interest, how quickly will the system recharge at a northern latitude in a notoriously dark and rainy area like Washington?

For several years I had no electricity at my studio. My solution so I could work into the night was to get a deep cycle battery and a small inverter. I used a single CFL for the light, had a small radio, and an efficient computer (mini-itx board with a Via C3, but I'd only turn it on as needed -- and a wireless bridge making a 400 ft hop). I had to lug the battery (at about 50 pounds) home every 3 or 4 days to recharge it. It's hard to get around the fact that electricity storage options do not allow for great power density, at least when compared to fuels.

And there is still the question of how many people have this setup now, ready to go. If the ultimate-doomers are correct, the time build it is now because if there is complete chaos, nobody is going to be able to order the parts. If you do build it now, what will you do when something breaks down? (I'm on my second inverter in 5 years -- I still keep the battery charged for lights if the power goes out)

[alokin]

NYC is only efficient because the energy of their food supply is not taken into calculation (correct me if I am wrong). Who will feed all these people?
The problem is that in former times half of the population was involved in agriculture today most have no idea how to plant a decent crop of potatoes. I don't remember if Kunstler or Heinberg wrote this, one of the two said something like "we may have the advantage of a superior knowledge to our forebearers" like permaculture etc., this is crab, we forgot most of the techniques one need for a decent live without fossil fuels and supermarkets.

[ORCA]

..I live on five acres of land in a county bordering a city. My land is zoned agricultural. It is part of a subdivision of sorts, with the smallest "lot" being five acres...like mine. There are about 32 other houses in this development ...
Having recently retired, I have the time and good health at 57 to work our property to grow food, provide wood for heat, and also provide security (if required). It would be a simple thing for the families to band together, if necessary or beneficial, to grow food and/or provide security. ...

It sounds like a nice place. However, if the doomiest of the doomers are correct ... I'm more of a "rough timer" than a hard core doomer BTW ... but just for the fun of it, imagine you have no fuel, no electricity, and no source for new or replacement equipment (even hand tools).
How will the wood be cut? The chainsaw won't be running so who in your community already has hand powered crosscut saws in storage? How will the firewood be moved to the place it is used? Does anyone have a horse and cart ready to go? How soon would all the wood on the 160 acre space you guys have be used up (how much would be used per year and how fast does the wood grow -- be sure to include year round usage because cooking food happens all year)?
If the energy apocalypse came in September -- has anyone already stored seeds for the spring planting? Are the seeds hybrids which may result in nice fat veggies one year, but infertile seeds for the following years? What will you do for fertilizer? How will the fields be watered if the rain is unreliable? For that matter, where is your water coming from -- wells presumably, but how will that be drawn? Anyone have hand pumps in their garage?
How will the food be stored for the fall, winter, and spring? How will you replace storage containers when the ones you have wear out or break?
Anyway, 32 families -- 128 people or more -- is quite a crowd to support on about 1 acre each for food and fuel using nothing but manual labor. It's a fact -- merely having five acres isn't even a fraction of the answer if the worst of the worst happens. Our entire infrastructure is built around motors. Stop the motors and I doubt most people have the hand tools needed to even try to survive. Even with the hand tools -- this kind of work is hard to imagine.
I've done some of this sort of stuff and it really makes me value the 25,000 man hours of labor contained in a barrel of oil.

You sure ask a lot of inconvienant questions! Ha...

Simple answer...I don't know. There's certainly more acreage hereabouts. Several hundred in fact. Some residents have horses. Some own farm tractors for use until all fuel is gone. Some have buck saws, axes, and wedges. There are guineas and chickens, and cows.

It would be tough going, no doubt. I might even be impossible to sustain at a civilized level. Still, I'd rather make a go of it here than trapped in a crowded city fighting over pigeons and rats to dine on.

I, like you, foresee "tough times" as you describe. We can all hope that it never comes to doomsday.

[Mehitabel]

I'm reviving this old thread because it seems close to the topic I'd like to get some feedback on.

I'm currently living in a suburban condo in a medium sized development. I've been looking around in viable areas for single family homes but I don't know if I want to go that route. For one thing my household is just my young daughter and me. I don't really like the idea of the two of us living alone in an isolated area. I feel there may be security value in building relationships in our community. Our current situation does have disadvantages but there are advantages as well. Our unit has a patio/flowerbed area that gets excellent sun. Our unit is a basement one so it is fairly inexpensive to heat and cool (though I know this may also be a security issue). We are in an older suburb with a better location than newer developments. We have 2 grocery stores and my credit union in a 2 mile radius. The CSA we just joined and the Post Office are less than 3 miles away. The library is 4 miles away. I have an extra bedroom, a garage, and a storage locker for provisions. We also live within 10 miles of my 2 brothers, my sister, and my parents - all of whom would take us in if necessary. My condo is quite a bit cheaper than rent or a house would be and it's in one of the best school districts in our area. We have a pretty good sized creek and quite a bit of wooded area nearby. We also have quite a bit of lawn space in the community.

All in all I'm tempted to stay put and pay down my mortgage (I just paid off my Prius and will be able to pay off my only credit card debt with my tax refund), invest in a couple of good bikes, make my unit as energy efficient as possible and see if I can interest the community in emergency preparedness.

There are some sustainable communities in the region but the best established one is in a not so good Cincinnati neighborhood and they are all further away from my family. I'm thinking I will visit them to get ideas to try to share with my neighbors here.

I'm sort of thinking out loud here but would appreciate any input.

[dinopello]

I feel there may be security value in building relationships in our community.

I think that pretty much sums up the debate. Those that advocate a loner approach do not have good relations with their community. They see community as a threat. Many of them probably live or have lived in places where this is perhaps a valid fear.

Banding together in a community that has interconnections and has mature consensus building mechanisms and widespread participation is the most secure situation. The mob will fight for such a community and not against it.

[Loki]

All in all I'm tempted to stay put and pay down my mortgage (I just paid off my Prius and will be able to pay off my only credit card debt with my tax refund), invest in a couple of good bikes, make my unit as energy efficient as possible and see if I can interest the community in emergency preparedness.

This doesn’t sound like a bad option. Setting up an isolated rural “doomstead” is not a viable option for most people, nor is it required to deal with economic decline. If your job is stable, your rent/mortgage is low, you’re not excessively reliant on driving, and most importantly, you’re happy with where you are, then I’d stay put. Having family nearby is also great, I think that familial connection is too often overlooked by preppers.

Do you have any community gardens nearby? If not, is there suitable land that you can use to organize a community garden?

For other community emergency preparedness check out CERT. My local CERT coordinator unfortunately ignored my attempts to get involved, but I’ve heard good things about CERT elsewhere. Might be a good place to meet like-minded people.

[Beery1]

Basically, anyone thinking of going it alone, stocking up on ammunition and hiding out in the hills is delusional. 100% of the people who tried it wouldn't last beyond their first winter.

[mhseesk]

The growth of the ‘Sprawl Frontier’ continues to threaten many of our more rural communities and watershed areas.We need better zoning and other tools to enable communities to grow in a sustainable way.


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